{"id":78584,"date":"2019-12-17T07:26:11","date_gmt":"2019-12-17T07:26:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/moodys-to-change-ilim-timbers-outlook-to-negative-forecasts-cyclical-downturn-in-the-global-timber-industry\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T17:18:48","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T17:18:48","slug":"moodys-to-change-ilim-timbers-outlook-to-negative-forecasts-cyclical-downturn-in-the-global-timber-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/moodys-to-change-ilim-timbers-outlook-to-negative-forecasts-cyclical-downturn-in-the-global-timber-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody\u2019s to change Ilim Timber\u2019s outlook to negative; forecasts cyclical downturn in the global timber industry"},"content":{"rendered":"

Moody's Investors Service has changed Ilim Timber's outlook to negative from positive. At the same time, Moody's affirmed the B2 corporate family rating (CFR) and the B2-PD probability of default rating.<\/em><\/p>\n

The rating action reflects Moody's expectation that Ilim Timber's operating performance and credit metrics will deteriorate in 2019 amid the cyclical downturn in the global timber industry.<\/span>\u00a0Although the market conditions are likely to stabilise or improve slightly over the next 12 months, which should support the company's credit quality, its rating will be weakly positioned in the B2 category, with no room for further deterioration in its credit metrics or liquidity beyond Moody's expectation.<\/p>\n

Subdued demand growth for new houses in the US, sluggish economic growth in Europe amid the Brexit uncertainty, and cautious business sentiment in China caused by the trade tensions with the US resulted in a drop in timber prices in key regions in 2019. Therefore, the company's revenue is likely to decrease to \u20ac530 million in 2019 from \u20ac566 million in 2018, and EBITDA is to decline almost by half to \u20ac37 million-\u20ac39 million in 2019 from a record high of \u20ac72 million a year earlier. First signs of improvement in the timber industry in the second half of 2019 suggest more benign market conditions in 2020, which should support the company's earnings.<\/p>\n

Moody's expects Ilim Timber's leverage, measured as Moody's-adjusted debt\/EBITDA, to increase above 5.0x in 2019 from 2.9x in 2018 due to the fall in EBITDA, before improving to below 4.5x in 2020, thanks to some rebound in profits and the continuing debt reduction. The company decreased its debt to \u20ac209 million as of 30 June 2019 from \u20ac287 million as of year-end 2017. Ilim Timber's positive free cash flow, supported by moderate working capital needs and low maintenance capital spending, should be sufficient to cover its debt maturities of \u20ac24 million in 2020 and \u20ac21million a year in 2021-22, before a balloon repayment of around \u20ac140 million in 2023.<\/p>\n

However, if the difficult market conditions continue for longer or the company's operating performance deteriorates for its own reasons, its credit metrics may remain outside the ranges commensurate with the B2 category for a longer period, which would exert a downward pressure on its rating. In addition, weaker credit metrics, than Moody's currently expects, would translate into a breach of financial covenants under Ilim Timber's syndicated loan.<\/p>\n

Ilim Timber's credit quality factors in (1) the company's geographic diversification of assets, with two mills in Germany and the other two in Eastern Siberia, Russia; (2) the proximity of the company's production assets to reliable and accessible raw material supply and an established distribution infrastructure; (3) a diversified customer base; (4) the well-invested modern saw mills in Germany that require low-maintenance capital spending; (5) the improving financial discipline and focus on debt reduction; and (6) the company's healthy liquidity, although financial covenant compliance will be tight through 2020.<\/p>\n

The rating also takes into account (1) Ilim Timber's low product portfolio diversification because around 74% of the company's sales are represented by sawn timber, a market characterised by seasonality and volatility in terms of volumes and prices; (2) its fairly small size on a global scale, reflected in its revenue of \u20ac543 million for the 12 months ended 30 June 2019; (3) somewhat volatile spreads between cost of logs and sawn timber prices, resulting in volatile profitability; and (4) its partial exposure to an emerging market's (Russia) operating environment.<\/p>\n

The negative outlook reflects Ilim Timber's weak positioning within the B2 rating category given the deterioration in its credit metrics on the back of weak market conditions, as well as uncertainty over the pace and timing of credit metrics' recovery during the next 12-18 months. The outlook on the rating also incorporates the risk of covenants' breaches during this period.<\/p>\n

Given the negative rating outlook, an upgrade of Ilim Timber's rating is unlikely over the next 12-18 months. Moody's could change the outlook to stable if the company was to reduce its Moody's-adjusted debt\/EBITDA below 4.5x on a sustainable basis, market conditions were to stabilise and start to improve, and the risk of covenants breaches subsides.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Moody’s Investors Service has changed Ilim Timber’s outlook to negative from positive. At the same time, Moody’s affirmed the B2 corporate family rating (CFR) and the B2-PD probability of default rating. The rating action reflects Moody’s expectation that Ilim Timber’s … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":62186,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4713,4716,4715],"tags":[4161,3838,3886],"class_list":["post-78584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-companies-in-the-timber-industry","category-latest-trends","category-market-analysis","tag-forecast","tag-ilim-timber","tag-moodys"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMoody\u2019s to change Ilim Timber\u2019s outlook to negative; forecasts cyclical downturn in the global timber industry - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/moodys-to-change-ilim-timbers-outlook-to-negative-forecasts-cyclical-downturn-in-the-global-timber-industry\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Moody\u2019s to change Ilim Timber\u2019s outlook to negative; forecasts cyclical downturn in the global timber industry - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Moody's Investors Service has changed Ilim Timber's outlook to negative from positive. 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