{"id":78201,"date":"2019-10-01T08:50:40","date_gmt":"2019-10-01T08:50:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/us-china-trade-war-hits-rayoniers-timber-segment\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T17:18:19","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T17:18:19","slug":"us-china-trade-war-hits-rayoniers-timber-segment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-china-trade-war-hits-rayoniers-timber-segment\/","title":{"rendered":"US-China trade war hits Rayonier\u2019s timber segment"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rayonier Inc.\u2019s New Zealand and Pacific Northwest timber segments faced challenging conditions during Q2, according to the company\u2019s CEO David Nunes.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Nunes said the southern timber segment had delivered a strong quarter, as markets benefited from increased demand from new mill facilities and constricted supply due to wet weather.<\/p>\n

But the company\u2019s Pacific Northwest and New Zealand timber segments had to contend with less favorable conditions.<\/p>\n

In the Pacific Northwest, pricing dynamics were impacted by the U.S.-China trade dispute and challenging lumber end-markets. In New Zealand, challenges included weaker demand from China and competition from alternative supply sources, particularly Europe, which resulted in lower harvest volumes and declining export sawtimber prices.<\/p>\n

Pricing dynamics in the Pacific Northwest and New Zealand continue to be unfavorable relative to Rayonier\u2019s expectations, Nunes said, leading the company to lower its full-year guidance.<\/span><\/p>\n

CFO Mark McHugh gave further details, saying full-year net income attributable to Rayonier is now anticipated at between US$54 million and $63 million, and adjusted EBITDA at between $245 million and $265 million.<\/p>\n

In the Pacific Northwest timber segment, harvest volumes in Q2 were 250,000 tons, down 12% from Q1 and 33% lower year-over-year.<\/p>\n

Full-year harvest volumes in this segment are now anticipated at 1.2 million tons, a decline of 11% from the midpoint of Rayonier\u2019s prior volume guidance, McHugh said. The revision reflects the company\u2019s decision to defer harvest in the Northwest due to the unfavorable market conditions, leading to a reduced outlook for the segment\u2019s full year adjusted EBITDA to $13 million-$16 million.<\/p>\n

In New Zealand, Rayonier\u2019s timber segment is on track to achieve its anticipated full-year volume of 2.7 million-2.8 million tons, but the company has seen a meaningful drop in export prices relative to average pricing in the first half of the year. Pricing is expected to show some improvement in H2, and Rayonier now expects full-year adjusted EBITDA in the New Zealand Timber segment of between $72 million and $77 million.<\/p>\n

Asked by an analyst why Rayonier plans to ratchet down harvest activity in the Pacific Northwest but not New Zealand, even though both markets are showing weakness, Nunes said that, with a labor shortage in both regions, putting the brakes on too heavily runs the risk of losing experienced contractors.<\/p>\n

More specifically, the Pacific Northwest has experienced a much greater decline in pricing of 24% relative to New Zealand\u2019s 7%, Nunes added. He acknowledged that New Zealand has seen a more recent correction leading to a drop of 15%, but said there has been some recovery since then.<\/p>\n

In addition, Rayonier believes that the Pacific Northwest is likely to experience more headwinds associated with the U.S.-China trade dispute, as exporters are showing reticence to have volume on the water while the dispute creates uncertainty.<\/p>\n

Nunes noted that, earlier in the year, tariffs in the Northwest were expected to go up from the current 5% to something in the 20% range, and that had dried up activity. People are still behaving in a cautious manner on the export side, and this comes at a time when the domestic markets are struggling.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou've got lumber producers dealing with high levels of finished goods inventory and soft pricing, and so they are not anxious to add to log decks,\u201d Nunes said. \u201cAnd I contrast that with New Zealand, that while you've had some decline recently on the export side, the domestic market continues to be pretty strong.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Rayonier\u2019s New Zealand timber segment, a big jump in Chinese imports is probably the biggest factor influencing the market, Nunes suggested.<\/p>\n

Rayonier watches inventory in China very carefully, said Nunes. At the end of 2018, there was about 2.4 million m3 of inventory at China ports, which the company sees as very favorable. But as the Chinese New Year approached, that volume grew to 4.4 million m3, while more recently the inventory has been at 4 million m3, which is roughly 1 million m3 more than at the same time last year.<\/p>\n

Nunes explained that Rayonier looks at the ratio of inventory to demand, expressed in terms of the number of months. If the ratio is at or below two months of demand, then the markets are considered to be fairly healthy from a pricing standpoint. However, towards the end of Q1, the ratio climbed to three months. Then in June, a 26% year-over-year increase in log shipments contributed to the 15% price correction seen towards the end of that month.<\/p>\n

Subsequently, inventory demand has improved to roughly two months, and as China entered a seasonal period of increased construction demand, log prices increased by US$2-3 per m3.<\/p>\n

Rayonier\u2019s CFO Mark McHugh said Q2 log prices to New Zealand were down 15% quarter-over-quarter. Pricing was around $135\/m3 JAS in April and dropped to a $110-$115 range during the correction.<\/p>\n

Nunes also noted that in May, in the main Yangtze Delta lumber ports, lumber inventory climbed to 1.9 million m3, roughly double 2018 levels. Much of the increase was driven by a rise in shipments from Europe as a result of salvage logging from beetle-infested and storm-damaged forests. Four countries in particular have made a significant contribution: Germany, the Czech Republic, Switzerland and Austria. \u201cBeetle kill volume in 2017 in these four countries was 12 million m3, it grew to 31 million m3 in 2018,\u201d Nunes said, \u201cand the windthrow went from 15 million m3 in 2017 to 20 million m3 in 2018\u201d.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Chinese government\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative has opened up rail linkage into Europe, facilitating the movement of these increased lumber volumes into China. This, at least in the short-term, will impact log markets in all countries. \u201cMore marginal suppliers\u2026 have really started to drop off and that's probably something that we view as positive,\u201d said Nunes, who noted that shipments to China from places like Uruguay, Europe and the U.S. South have largely stopped.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe still believe that New Zealand is very well-positioned in that market, as is the Pacific Northwest, once we get this trade dispute behind us, and to a lesser extent, the U.S. South,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

In the U.S. South, the outlook is more robust. Rayonier expects its southern timber segment to achieve full-year volumes in line with prior guidance of 6.2-6.3 million tons with higher adjusted EBITDA of $120 million-$125 million.<\/p>\n

Nunes noted that around 6 billion board feet (bbf) of capacity changes are proposed in the region from 2017 to 2021, which roughly converts to 24 million tons of incremental log demand.<\/p>\n

In 2018 around 1.7 bbf of capacity came online, of which around 75% of is in the proximity of Rayonier\u2019s wood baskets. However, much of that capacity is in start-up mode and is not yet fully operational. Another 1.3 billion board feet is coming online in 2019 with 82% near Rayonier\u2019s wood baskets. Then another 1.3-1.7 bbf is set to come online in the 2020 to 2021 timeframe, which compares to around 2.7 bbf of curtailments in western Canada.<\/p>\n

Rayonier has not yet begun to feel the full effect of the shift to the South, due to the lag effect associated with mill start-ups. But the shift is likely to accelerate in the lower lumber price environment, which Nunes sees as positive news in the longer term. \u201cWe are still bullish as we think about the impacts of the U.S. South and\u2026 the relative placement that we have in better wood baskets,\u201d said Nunes. \u201cWe think we're going to benefit from that disproportionately.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rayonier Inc.\u2019s New Zealand and Pacific Northwest timber segments faced challenging conditions during Q2, according to the company\u2019s CEO David Nunes. Nunes said the southern timber segment had delivered a strong quarter, as markets benefited from increased demand from new … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":59951,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4713,4716,4715],"tags":[4215,3264,3258,4216],"class_list":["post-78201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-companies-in-the-timber-industry","category-latest-trends","category-market-analysis","tag-rayonies","tag-timber","tag-trade-war","tag-us-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS-China trade war hits Rayonier\u2019s timber segment - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-china-trade-war-hits-rayoniers-timber-segment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US-China trade war hits Rayonier\u2019s timber segment - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Rayonier Inc.\u2019s New Zealand and Pacific Northwest timber segments faced challenging conditions during Q2, according to the company\u2019s CEO David Nunes. 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