{"id":77194,"date":"2019-03-04T12:28:13","date_gmt":"2019-03-04T12:28:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tin.happy-projects.ro\/us-housing-starts-reported-weak-possible-economic-recession-ahead\/"},"modified":"2025-09-19T08:50:03","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T08:50:03","slug":"us-housing-starts-reported-weak-possible-economic-recession-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-housing-starts-reported-weak-possible-economic-recession-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"US housing starts reported as weak; possible economic recession ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

A number of market analysts have pointed to signs of weakness in the U.S. housing market as an indicator of a possible economic recession ahead. A slowdown in the housing market \u2013 evident by dampening home price growth, a decrease in new and existing home sales, and a downturn in housing starts \u2013 can be a key signal of the wavering health of the overall economy.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Now, the housing market has revealed yet another sign of a potential economic instability: a persistent decline in single-family housing authorizations.<\/p>\n

What some call a key predictor of economic recessions, single-family authorizations represent building permits requesting permission to commence construction. By contrast, housing starts signal that construction has already begun.<\/p>\n

According to a report released Tuesday by BuildFax, a provider of data on property conditions, single-family authorizations have declined year over year for the third consecutive month in January, falling 3.48%.<\/p>\n

The trailing three-month outlook from November 2018 to January 2019 also showed repeated declines with a 3.04% decrease, the report revealed.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is particularly notable as continued year-over-year declines in single-family housing authorizations are historically correlated with economic recessions between 1961 and 2018,\u201d BuildFax stated.<\/p>\n

Housing maintenance and remodeling activity also trended downward in the last three months. Maintenance volume fell 6.47% year over year and maintenance spending declined 7.29%. Remodeling volume decreased 10.85% year over year, while often volatile remodeling spending increased slightly by 1.26%.<\/p>\n

\u201cSlowing activity in the housing sector may be symptomatic of global economic tensions and dramatic moves in the stock market,\u201d BuildFax noted.<\/p>\n

Nevada, Oregon and Florida were the states that posted the greatest declines in maintenance activity, which BuildFax called \u201ca signal of shifts in consumer confidence.\u201d<\/p>\n

BuildFax CEO Jonathan Kanarek said it\u2019s not surprising that the weakened housing activity seen in late 2018 persisted into the new year.<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven current economic conditions, including the recent government shutdown, sensitivity to interest rate increases and global market stressors, like ongoing trade negotiations, we were not surprised to see persistent declines,\u201d Kanarek said. \u201cIt is yet to be seen if an easing of these external factors will alleviate the housing slowdown.\u201d<\/p>\n

But one category has been posting consistent gains.<\/p>\n

Demolition activity has risen in the past five years by 16.65% across the country.<\/p>\n

BuildFax reported that California, Texas, Tennessee and Florida have seen the greatest amount of demolition activity in recent years, reflecting investments in those areas.<\/p>\n

Kanarek said that while an uptick in demolition activity does signal opportunities for investment, it also comes with the potential for abandoned construction.<\/p>\n

\u201cDemolition activity can be a leading indicator of economic reinvestment in a community, which often precedes larger real estate projects. However, historical BuildFax research suggests intended projects are cut short when timing aligns with an economic slowdown,\u201d Kanarek said. \u201cDuring the last housing crisis, abandoned construction projects replaced anticipated new housing construction. This is not necessarily indicative of trends in a future economic slowdown, but definitely a cycle we\u2019re tracking closely.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A number of market analysts have pointed to signs of weakness in the U.S. housing market as an indicator of a possible economic recession ahead. A slowdown in the housing market \u2013 evident by dampening home price growth, a decrease … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":62027,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4716,4715],"tags":[3663,4061,3252],"class_list":["post-77194","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-trends","category-market-analysis","tag-housing-starts","tag-recession","tag-us","topic-sawmilling","topic-wood-construction","area-north-america"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS housing starts reported as weak; possible economic recession ahead<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A number of market analysts have pointed to signs of weakness in the U.S. housing market as an indicator of a possible economic recession ahead.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-housing-starts-reported-weak-possible-economic-recession-ahead\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US housing starts reported as weak; 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