{"id":100594,"date":"2026-11-11T01:30:48","date_gmt":"2026-11-11T01:30:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=100594"},"modified":"2026-11-11T22:10:27","modified_gmt":"2026-11-11T22:10:27","slug":"us-lumber-prices-slide-as-housing-weakness-outweighs-supply-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-lumber-prices-slide-as-housing-weakness-outweighs-supply-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"US lumber prices slide as housing weakness outweighs supply cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"

US lumber prices are falling as weaker homebuilding and limited inventory purchases reduce orders reaching sawmills. Lower duties on Canadian shipments and expectations of further trade concessions have added pressure. Producers are cutting output, but buyers continue to report little difficulty obtaining supplies.<\/p>\n

Lumber futures closed at $510.50 per thousand board feet on November 10, down 5.4% from October 12. Prices briefly touched $495 on November 9 before recovering. Several rebounds during the past month have failed to reverse the decline.<\/p>\n

Physical prices have also weakened. NAHB reported Madison\u2019s framing lumber price measure at $449.05 per thousand board feet for November 6, down 2.2% over the week and 10.3% over the month. The decline began before the US elections: CME\u2019s September market review described futures retreating from the low-to-mid $600s in July towards $560 in late August as housing activity slowed.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Fewer homes entering construction<\/strong><\/p>\n

US housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million units in September, according to the Census Bureau, compared with 1.288 million in August. Single-family starts declined to 859,000 from 900,000. Single-family building permits also fell, dropping 4% to an annualised 845,000 units. Fewer starts reduce immediate demand for framing lumber, while lower permit numbers point to fewer projects being prepared.<\/p>\n

Recent mortgage-rate declines have provided limited relief. Freddie Mac\u2019s average 30-year fixed rate fell for a third consecutive week to 7.18% on November 5, but remained above the 6.22% recorded a year earlier. Monthly borrowing costs are still restricting what buyers can afford, despite the improvement from October.<\/p>\n

Builders are discounting homes to secure sales. NAHB\u2019s October survey found that 43% had reduced prices, with an average reduction of 6%, while 65% were offering sales incentives. Builder confidence fell to 29, and the prospective-buyer traffic measure dropped to 18. With sales requiring larger concessions, builders have little reason to accelerate construction or commit to additional material purchases.<\/p>\n

Buyers see little reason to rebuild stocks<\/strong><\/p>\n

Iin early November lumber buyers were comfortable carrying lean inventories because they could obtain what they needed without difficulty. Purchases remained tied to immediate requirements. Sellers of Western SPF in the United States were actively seeking orders for slower-moving dimensions.<\/p>\n

Low inventories therefore offer mills limited support. Stockists cover existing orders and return to the market when another shipment is needed. When supplies remain readily available and prices are declining, buying ahead risks leaving them with more expensive stock than their competitors. Mills consequently receive fewer of the larger replenishment orders that would help extend delivery schedules and support prices.<\/p>\n

The approach of winter is reducing consumption further. Interfor reported that October\u2019s average Western SPF and Southern Yellow Pine Composite benchmarks were respectively 6% and 11% below their third-quarter averages. It attributed the decline to the seasonal slowdown in consumption and building activity.<\/p>\n

Those benchmarks remained above October 2025 levels, however. The latest decline differs by species, product and region; it does not mean that every physical lumber price has returned to its year-earlier level.<\/p>\n

Canadian duties fall, with further relief still uncertain<\/strong><\/p>\n

The combined US antidumping and countervailing duty rate applying to Canadian producers in the \u201call others\u201d category fell from 35.16% to 24.75%. The revised rate applies to new shipments from October 19. A separate 10% Section 232 tariff remains, bringing the combined charge for that category to 34.75%. Individually assessed producers face different duty rates.<\/p>\n

The reduction improves Canadian suppliers\u2019 ability to compete for US orders. It also gives buyers a reason to question whether current offers will hold. Additional shipments will depend on available production, transport and mill profitability, but expectations of cheaper supply can affect purchasing decisions before those volumes arrive.<\/p>\n

Democratic victories in the congressional elections have encouraged expectations of further tariff challenges. A negotiated settlement remains uncertain. On November 10, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the Trump administration would remain the principal counterpart in trade negotiations and that significant issues were unresolved. No agreement eliminating lumber tariffs has been announced.<\/p>\n

Mill closures have yet to make lumber scarce<\/strong><\/p>\n

Producers are responding to weak orders by reducing output. West Fraser announced an indefinite curtailment of its Leola lumber mill in Arkansas, scheduled to take effect during the fourth quarter, citing continued weakness in construction and renovation demand. Management said it had been matching production to orders and reducing inventories, with no clear near-term improvement in demand.<\/p>\n

Canfor also completed the closure of its Fox Creek sawmill in Alberta during the third quarter. These reductions remove supply, but some are still being implemented and have yet to affect the volumes available to customers fully.<\/p>\n

Other mills are increasing production. Interfor\u2019s third-quarter output rose following the completed ramp-up of its rebuilt Thomaston sawmill in Georgia and higher operating rates elsewhere. The effect of individual closures therefore depends partly on how much additional lumber other operations produce.<\/p>\n

For prices to receive sustained support from curtailments, buyers would need to encounter tighter availability or longer delivery times. Readily available supplies indicate that this has not yet happened consistently across the market.<\/p>\n

Selling prices fall while mill costs rise<\/strong><\/p>\n

The decline in lumber prices is arriving alongside higher manufacturing and delivery costs. West Fraser reported increased logging and transportation expenses associated with diesel prices and transport labour availability. It estimated that diesel-related SPF and Southern Yellow Pine lumber costs had increased by approximately $15 per thousand board feet since the beginning of the year. Lower selling prices leave mills less room to absorb those expenses and increase the financial incentive to curtail production.<\/p>\n

Homebuilders will receive some benefit from cheaper lumber, although the reduction takes time to reach construction sites. NAHB says suppliers may need weeks or months to work through inventory purchased at higher prices. Even then, lumber savings address only part of the cost of a new home. Mortgage payments, land, labour and other materials continue to limit affordability\u2014and the number of buyers able to support another round of construction.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US lumber prices are falling as weaker homebuilding and limited inventory purchases reduce orders reaching sawmills. Lower duties on Canadian shipments and expectations of further trade concessions have added pressure. Producers are cutting output, but buyers continue to report little … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100595,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS lumber prices slide as housing weakness outweighs supply cuts - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-lumber-prices-slide-as-housing-weakness-outweighs-supply-cuts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US lumber prices slide as housing weakness outweighs supply cuts - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US lumber prices are falling as weaker homebuilding and limited inventory purchases reduce orders reaching sawmills. 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