{"id":100591,"date":"2026-11-11T01:35:42","date_gmt":"2026-11-11T01:35:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=100591"},"modified":"2026-11-11T22:10:25","modified_gmt":"2026-11-11T22:10:25","slug":"ihc-2026-part-1-hardwood-mills-lose-ground-as-log-trade-reshapes-the-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/ihc-2026-part-1-hardwood-mills-lose-ground-as-log-trade-reshapes-the-market\/","title":{"rendered":"IHC 2026, part 1: Hardwood mills lose ground as log trade reshapes the market"},"content":{"rendered":"

European oak and beech producers face uneven orders and competition for logs, while American hardwood consumption has fallen much faster than housing activity. The Antwerp conference documented an industry trying to retain processing capacity as trade and manufacturing move towards Asia.<\/em><\/p>\n

Europe\u2019s hardwood industry is producing less of a material that governments want consumers to use more. Sawmills face weak orders from flooring and furniture manufacturers, competition for suitable logs and rising costs that customers are reluctant to absorb. Forests may contain more hardwood in the decades ahead, but that offers little comfort to a processor struggling to sell today\u2019s production profitably.<\/p>\n

The International Hardwood Conference in Antwerp on November 5\u20136 exposed the scale of that problem. Across European oak and beech and American hardwoods, speakers described an industry losing processing capacity while searching for applications capable of paying for the resource. Construction\u2019s downturn explains part of the weakness. Changes in manufacturing geography, competition from substitute materials and the growing importance of unprocessed log exports explain more.<\/p>\n

The eleventh edition of the conference attracted about 170 participants, a record for the event, according to the organisers. Fedustria hosted it with the European Timber Trade Federation and the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry. A port visit preceded the conference, which opened with EOS hardwood vice-president Maria Kiefer-Polz and ETTF president Ad Wesselink. The market presentations that followed offered few grounds for expecting a return to the volumes of the previous decade.<\/p>\n

Katja De Vos, Fedustria \u2014 Making the case for wood in interiors<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Katja De Vos<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Katja De Vos of Fedustria addressed the industry\u2019s effort to build demand through the experience of wood in interiors. She presented an fMRI study involving 24 participants who viewed rooms furnished with wood, concrete or plastic while completing tasks. The reported responses supported a positive perception of wood in domestic, workplace, classroom and hospital settings. As evidence from a small experimental study, it offers material for further research and product communication rather than a direct forecast of purchasing behaviour.<\/p>\n

The commercial question for the hardwood sector is how that preference becomes an order. Architects can specify wood in schools, offices and homes, but manufacturers still have to meet budgets, performance requirements and delivery schedules. A favourable response to natural materials gives suppliers a selling point; it does not remove the price competition described by the market speakers who followed.<\/p>\n

Jean-Fran\u00e7ois Guilbert, French Timber \u2014 Log exports and a divided Chinese market<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Jean-Fran\u00e7ois Guilbert, first from the right<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Jean-Fran\u00e7ois Guilbert of French Timber put temperate hardwood\u2019s position in perspective. His estimates placed world production of wood panels at about 400 million m\u00b3, softwood lumber at 320 million m\u00b3 and non-coniferous sawnwood at 123 million m\u00b3. Temperate hardwood lumber accounted for roughly 26 million m\u00b3 within that last category. The industry competing for attention in forest and industrial policy is small relative to the wider wood economy.<\/p>\n

Guilbert\u2019s concern was the value that leaves producing countries with their logs. Exporting a tree can provide a competitive outlet for its owner, but the subsequent sawing, drying and manufacture take place elsewhere. For local processors, the commercial task is to earn enough from finished and semi-finished products to remain credible buyers of the raw material. Restrictions or political appeals alone cannot create that margin.<\/p>\n

China remains central to the argument, although its purchases no longer move uniformly across species and products. Chinese oak log imports totalled 797,102 m\u00b3 in 2025, down from 966,631 m\u00b3 in 2024 and well below the 1.35 million m\u00b3 recorded in 2021. During January\u2013September 2026, however, imports recovered to 897,561 m\u00b3, an increase of nearly 22% from the same period a year earlier.<\/p>\n

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France supplied 320,229 m\u00b3 of that nine-month total, up 31%, and retained a share of almost 36%. US shipments more than doubled to 192,207 m\u00b3. Germany supplied 107,793 m\u00b3, slightly less than a year earlier, while Slovakia increased deliveries to 96,226 m\u00b3. The Czech Republic and Belgium also shipped more. A difficult Chinese property market has therefore coexisted with renewed purchasing of oak logs from several major origins.<\/p>\n

Beech followed a different course. China\u2019s imports of beech logs fell 17.6% during January\u2013September 2026 to 452,079 m\u00b3. German deliveries declined by roughly a quarter to 178,138 m\u00b3, and French shipments fell almost a fifth to 74,103 m\u00b3. Denmark and Belgium were almost unchanged. The Czech Republic increased its smaller volume, but that was insufficient to offset losses elsewhere.<\/p>\n

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Chinese imports of sawn beech also contracted, falling 8.6% to 356,994 m\u00b3 over the same nine months. Romania held its position better than most competitors: deliveries increased 1.4% to 113,069 m\u00b3, lifting its share to nearly 32%. German shipments fell 9.2% to 75,346 m\u00b3. Croatia, Poland and Serbia each lost about 12%, while France\u2019s volume fell 29.2% to 9,568 m\u00b3. The figures describe a market in which suppliers are contesting shares of a smaller total.<\/p>\n

Bart Muys, KU Leuven \u2014 More forest, less certainty over industrial supply<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Bart Muys<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Professor Bart Muys of KU Leuven examined how changes in European forests will affect industrial wood supply. European forest cover has expanded by about 9% over three decades, but forest condition has deteriorated in many places. The monitoring results he cited recorded declining vitality in 33.7% of plots and improvement in only 10.7%. More hectares of forest do not automatically provide more healthy, accessible sawlogs.<\/p>\n

Muys expected the available resource to shift gradually towards hardwoods and lower qualities, even as total wood supply came under pressure from climate-related mortality, slowing forest expansion and conservation set-asides. His assessment also allowed for growing demand from efforts to replace fossil materials and improve resource security. He warned that domestic wood scarcity could become more acute from around 2050. For manufacturers, the relevant investment question is which products can use the forest that will be available, at a cost customers will accept.<\/p>\n

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For sawmills, the transition involves both procurement and machinery. A forest with a larger hardwood share may produce different species, diameters and defect patterns from those around which existing plants were designed. Developing an outlet for lower grades can therefore be as important as securing additional volume. Forest expansion, harvest availability and the quality of the material reaching a mill are separate measures.<\/p>\n

Florence Perrucaud, Ducerf Group \u2014 French oak mills struggle to sell the whole log<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Florence Perrucaud<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

For European oak producers, the immediate difficulty is matching the assortment coming out of a log to the assortment customers will buy. Florence Perrucaud of the Ducerf Group described a French market in which better grades were holding up more firmly than lower grades and strips. Flooring\u2019s weakness makes it harder to sell the latter, even when orders for selected material remain available. A sawmill cannot confine production to its most profitable boards.<\/p>\n

The French output figures in her presentation separated 463,000 m\u00b3 of sawn oak from 110,000 m\u00b3 of sleepers and 66,000 m\u00b3 of staves. The combined 639,000 m\u00b3 should therefore not be treated as ordinary sawn timber alone. Of the 463,000 m\u00b3 sawn timber volume, about 165,000 m\u00b3 went to export. The remaining volume was roughly divided between industrial customers and trade or distribution channels.<\/p>\n

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That makes exports an essential outlet for French mills. Perrucaud reported more encouraging demand in European markets, while Asian markets remained volatile. Guilbert similarly described the need for overseas orders to sustain output and turnover as the French market slowed. Yet export success in selected grades leaves the mill with the same problem at the other end of the quality range: finding customers for material that flooring manufacturers and other volume buyers no longer require in previous quantities.<\/p>\n

The stave market has added a second source of pressure. Perrucaud estimated a decline of about 40% in 2026. Strong demand from cooperage and Chinese log buyers had previously helped push oak log prices higher. The subsequent adjustment in those markets eased raw-material pressure, although weaker stave demand also removed an outlet for valuable oak. Cheaper logs improve a mill\u2019s purchasing position only if its sales recover enough to cover processing and inventory costs.<\/p>\n

Joinery and carpentry offered a firmer market in Ducerf\u2019s assessment. Oak and beech components for doors and windows, particularly for refurbishment, continued to find customers. Energy renovation could support further demand, although the availability of work depends on household confidence, financing and public support. Oak\u2019s durability and appearance remain commercial assets. They do not insulate it from consumers choosing a cheaper floor or postponing an order altogether.<\/p>\n

Roland Feit, Abalon Hardwood \u2014 German beech loses markets and processing capacity<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Roland Feit<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The decline of German beech processing forms part of a wider change in the geography of hardwood production. Figures presented by Roland Feit of Abalon put the EU\u2019s share of global hardwood lumber output at 6% in 2024, against 9% in 2005. North America\u2019s share fell from 23% to 11%. Over the same period, China\u2019s increased from 8% to 27%, while Vietnam\u2019s rose from 3% to 5%. Taken together, Europe and North America supplied a much smaller proportion of the world\u2019s processed hardwood.<\/p>\n

Beech producers face a longer decline in industrial scale. German sawn beech exports reached 378,847 m\u00b3 in 2025, according to the Destatis series presented by Feit. That was about 1.2% below 2024 and almost 32% below the 556,577 m\u00b3 shipped in 2017. The recovery from the low point of 2023 had failed to restore the earlier business. His presentation also documented successive mill closures and insolvencies alongside falling hardwood output.<\/p>\n

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Feit argued that log exports account for only part of the pressure on supply. An industry estimate he presented allocated 36.5% of Germany\u2019s hardwood sawlog resource to domestic sawmills, 27.8% to firewood, 21.1% to foregone use and 14.6% to export. Those figures draw on a historical allocation rather than a new 2026 harvest balance. They nevertheless explain the industry\u2019s frustration: material that could enter a mill may instead leave the country, go directly into energy use or remain unavailable for harvesting.<\/p>\n

Demand from the bioeconomy creates another competitor for beech. Its availability and chemical composition make it attractive for industrial processing beyond conventional lumber. Such investment may increase the value of the forest resource while raising procurement pressure on sawmills. Climate damage further complicates purchasing by changing the quality and reliability of the logs offered to industry.<\/p>\n

New products have yet to compensate for the loss of established markets. Feit said thermal treatment and acetylation had not so far created substantial additional outlets for beech lumber, while structural applications were still struggling to achieve scale. Research into strip-like lamination offered a more specific possibility. The SynLamTimber work aims to turn heterogeneous and lower-value material into components with more uniform properties and useful dimensions.<\/p>\n

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The test results presented at the conference showed increases in dynamic modulus of elasticity of 21.9% for rejected sawn timber, 12.6% for material from small-diameter logs and 15.3% for small-diameter material without the pith. These are material-performance results, rather than evidence of an established commercial market. Their relevance lies in the raw material they could accommodate. An industry receiving more variable hardwood needs ways to earn revenue from grades that conventional markets discount.<\/p>\n

Michael Snow, AHEC \u2014 US hardwood demand breaks away from housing<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Michael Snow<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The American industry provided the clearest evidence that weak hardwood consumption cannot be explained by housing alone. Michael Snow, executive director of the American Hardwood Export Council, compared US housing completions with domestic consumption of grade hardwood lumber. Between 2006 and 2025, housing completions fell from 1.979 million to 1.579 million units, a decline of about 20%. Grade lumber consumption dropped by nearly 73%, from approximately 12.27 million m\u00b3 to 3.36 million m\u00b3 after conversion from the presentation\u2019s original units.<\/p>\n

The gap points to a much greater loss of hardwood use than the housing figures themselves would imply. Domestic furniture manufacturing has contracted, imported products supply part of the market, and competing materials have taken applications once served by solid wood. Snow\u2019s presentation tracked declining consumption across furniture, flooring and other uses. A recovery in building activity would help, but the earlier relationship between a new home and the volume of American hardwood it consumes has weakened.<\/p>\n

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Pricing has offered little protection. The long-term series Snow presented showed nominal lumber prices about 35% higher over twenty years, against a 64% increase in consumer prices. On that basis, inflation-adjusted lumber prices were roughly 18% lower. Energy and labour costs had also risen substantially. The resulting pressure extends beyond the sawmill to drying yards and manufacturers purchasing its output.<\/p>\n

Exports, which once supplied an answer to shrinking domestic consumption, have become less dependable. Snow said shipments through July put 2026 on course for the weakest annual performance in seventeen years, with volumes around 44% below the 2017 peak. This was an assessment based on partial-year trade, rather than a completed annual result. China was again a major source of weakness, with US hardwood lumber shipments there down 14% in the first seven months.<\/p>\n

The product mix of American exports is changing as well. During January\u2013July 2018, the US exported about 2.57 million m\u00b3 of hardwood lumber and 1.45 million m\u00b3 of hardwood logs. In the corresponding period of 2026, lumber exports were down to 1.49 million m\u00b3, while log exports remained near 1.43 million m\u00b3. Logs consequently increased from 36% to 49% of the combined physical volumes. Those percentages do not measure value added or allow for sawmill recovery, but the contraction in processed exports is clear.<\/p>\n

Other destinations offered uneven relief. US lumber exports to Vietnam rose 9% and those to Canada increased 8% through July, while Thailand grew 45% from a smaller base. Shipments to the UK fell 13%, Japan 28% and Lebanon 52%. Diversification is proceeding, but gains in smaller markets cannot quickly recreate the scale of Chinese demand at its peak.<\/p>\n

India was one of the more positive smaller markets. US hardwood lumber shipments reached 10,362 m\u00b3 in the first half of 2026, up 13%. White oak accounted for 36% of volume and red oak for 25%. The Middle East and North Africa moved in the opposite direction, with deliveries down 21% to 35,693 m\u00b3. Within that regional picture, Turkey increased purchases by 23% to 8,414 m\u00b3. Pakistan, reported separately, fell 34% to 5,486 m\u00b3.<\/p>\n

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The size of the Chinese import market has also changed. Snow\u2019s comparison put imports of all hardwood lumber, including tropical species, at $2.79 billion in January\u2013October 2025, against $4.39 billion in the same months of 2018. The US share fell from 30% to 19%, while Thailand\u2019s increased from 28% to 33%. American suppliers have lost share in a market that has itself become substantially smaller by value.<\/p>\n

Vietnam\u2019s relationship with China has become particularly important. AHEC\u2019s figures showed Chinese hardwood lumber imports from Vietnam worth $49 million in December 2025, exceeding the $46 million imported from the US that month. In May 2026, the two origins remained close at $38 million and $41 million respectively. The figures establish Vietnam\u2019s growing role as a supplier to China. They do not, by themselves, identify the origin of the logs used to produce those shipments.<\/p>\n

David Holvoet, Treecraft \u2014 Vietnam remains tied to Chinese demand<\/strong><\/p>\n

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David Holvoet<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

David Holvoet of Treecraft placed the two markets in the same commercial context. China\u2019s property downturn has reduced hardwood demand, while remaining business places greater emphasis on quality. Vietnam has a much smaller domestic market and close connections with Chinese manufacturing and trade. Its growth as a processing and export centre therefore cannot be treated as an equivalent increase in independent final demand.<\/p>\n

That limits what diversification within Asia can achieve on its own. Selling to a processor in another country can change a supplier\u2019s immediate customer and trading route while leaving the finished product exposed to the same end market. Exporters need to understand where their timber will ultimately be used, alongside the destination recorded in customs data.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The evidence from Antwerp leaves mills with a difficult purchasing calculation. They must secure enough suitable logs to keep production efficient while carrying grades and products that customers are buying in smaller quantities. French joinery, selected export markets and new uses for beech provide business, but none has yet replaced the volume lost from established outlets. Retaining processing capacity will depend on finding paying customers for a larger share of each log.<\/p>\n

Part 2 examines the customer industries and the tropical supply chain: European parquet and furniture, Ghana and the Congo Basin, and the technologies and construction rules shaping new hardwood applications.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

European oak and beech producers face uneven orders and competition for logs, while American hardwood consumption has fallen much faster than housing activity. 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