{"id":100516,"date":"2026-11-04T08:57:11","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T08:57:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=100516"},"modified":"2026-11-04T21:39:54","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T21:39:54","slug":"democrats-win-but-lumber-tariff-relief-still-depends-on-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/democrats-win-but-lumber-tariff-relief-still-depends-on-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Democrats win, but lumber tariff relief still depends on Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"

Democratic control of Congress increases the pressure to cut construction costs. The president still has considerable authority over tariffs\u2014and a Canadian lumber deal remains his to negotiate.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump will have to negotiate with a Congress controlled by Democrats. For the wood industry, the immediate significance of their victory in both chambers is greater pressure on the administration to explain why it is taxing building materials while promising cheaper homes.<\/p>\n

That pressure could help Canada secure relief for its lumber exporters. It could also expose American sawmills to lower-priced imports while demand remains weak. A political defeat for Trump does not translate neatly into a commercial victory for everyone selling wood.<\/p>\n

What Trump has actually lost<\/strong><\/p>\n

The new congressional terms begin on January 3, 2027. From then, Democrats will be able to obstruct Trump\u2019s legislative programme, use spending negotiations to demand concessions and investigate the costs of his trade policies. Their Senate majority will also be able to block appointments requiring confirmation.<\/p>\n

But the election does not revoke the tariff authority Congress has already delegated to the president. Within the limits of existing law, Trump retains considerable discretion over trade measures, including the Section 232 national-security tariffs affecting wood products. He can still negotiate concessions with Canada.<\/p>\n

Congress could legislate to restrict those powers. Trump could veto the legislation. Overriding him would require two-thirds of those voting in each chamber, with a quorum present\u2014a much higher threshold than winning a majority.<\/p>\n

His freedom to pass new laws has narrowed. His ability to make trade decisions under existing laws remains substantial. For a lumber exporter, that means watching the White House as closely as the incoming congressional leadership.<\/p>\n

The election gives Trump a reason to pursue a deal he can present as a response to living costs. He could offer tariff relief and claim credit for it. Businesses should judge that possibility by the terms agreed with Ottawa, rather than assume that a weaker president must become a more accommodating one.<\/p>\n

Canada has a specific concession to pursue<\/strong><\/p>\n

The talks were moving before election day. On November 2 that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had led efforts to restart negotiations over national-security tariffs, with formal discussions potentially resuming this week.<\/p>\n

There is already a precedent for the lumber concession Canada wants. In August, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Washington had offered to remove the additional 10% softwood lumber tariff before that round of negotiations collapsed.<\/p>\n

Removing it would leave the underlying antidumping and countervailing duties intact. For producers covered by the latest review\u2019s \u201call others\u201d rate, those duties total 24.75%; the additional levy takes the combined charge to 34.75%. Individually assessed producers face different rates.<\/p>\n

On an unchanged customs value of $1,000, removing the extra levy would cut the duty bill by $100. The value plus duties would fall from $1,347.50 to $1,247.50, or approximately 7.4%, before freight and other costs. How much reached the buyer would depend on prices negotiated with the mill.<\/p>\n

That would be meaningful relief. It would also fall well short of a new softwood lumber agreement settling the underlying dispute. Exporters should distinguish between the two when deciding what a possible deal is worth.<\/p>\n

Democrats also have mills to defend<\/strong><\/p>\n

Democratic senators Jacky Rosen and Chris Coons have proposed tariff exclusions for homebuilding materials, with support from builders and lumber dealers. The House version of the Housing Tariff Exclusion Act explicitly excludes antidumping and countervailing duties from its relief mechanism.<\/p>\n

Democrats can therefore argue for cheaper construction inputs while retaining trade remedies favoured by domestic producers. The US Lumber Coalition\u2019s October endorsement of continued enforcement against Canadian lumber shows the opposition that a broader rollback would encounter.<\/p>\n

There is no reason to expect every Democrat representing a timber-producing district to welcome cheaper Canadian competition. Their new majority makes an affordability argument easier to advance. It also makes them responsible for explaining the consequences to American mills.<\/p>\n

Lower duties could reach prices before demand<\/strong><\/p>\n

West Fraser announced indefinite curtailments at its Leola lumber mill in Arkansas and Huguley OSB mill in Alabama on October 28, citing weak construction and renovation demand. Leola accounts for 225 million board feet of annual capacity\u2014approximately 531,000 m\u00b3 of nominal volume.<\/p>\n

Both operations are in the United States. Import protection has not spared them from customers\u2019 reluctance or inability to build. In October, US builder confidence fell to its lowest level since June 2012, while 43% of builders reported cutting house prices.<\/p>\n

In that market, tariff relief could first produce cheaper offers and inventory losses. Importers expecting a reduction might postpone orders. Distributors holding higher-cost stock could have to discount it. Canadian suppliers might regain some margin, while US mills face stronger competition.<\/p>\n

Lower material costs would help builders, but the increase in construction could take longer. Mortgage costs, land and labour would still constrain projects. A mill facing an immediate reduction in selling prices cannot assume that additional housing demand will arrive in the same quarter.<\/p>\n

Europe could lose some of its advantage<\/strong><\/p>\n

European suppliers have a direct interest in the scope of any Canadian concession. If Washington removes Canada\u2019s additional 10% levy while retaining it on European softwood, Canada\u2019s relative position improves. Its exporters would still face the underlying trade duties, but European mills would have less room to defend their delivered prices.<\/p>\n

Larger relief covering multiple origins would create a different problem: more wood competing for buyers who remain cautious. Exporters would have to compare US returns with those available elsewhere. A change in American tariffs could redirect shipments without increasing total consumption.<\/p>\n

For cabinet and furniture suppliers, a nearer deadline matters. Under the existing schedule, the standard additional tariff on covered kitchen cabinets and vanities rises from 25% to 50% on January 1, 2027; certain upholstered furniture faces an increase from 25% to 30%. Negotiated country arrangements can alter those rates.<\/p>\n

Those increases are scheduled before the new congressional terms begin. Suppliers booking January deliveries therefore still need a decision from the current administration or action by the outgoing Congress. The election result itself changes nothing on the customs declaration.<\/p>\n

Iran remains Trump\u2019s decision to manage<\/strong><\/p>\n

A Democratic Congress can increase scrutiny of military action and contest funding. Its election does not automatically prevent further strikes or produce an agreement with Iran.<\/p>\n

Brent oil back above $104 a barrel on Wednesday as uncertainty over the conflict persisted. Trump said there were no immediate plans for further strikes, but Washington and Tehran remained far from an agreement. His softer language had not removed the risk.<\/p>\n

For the wood industry, a sustained fall in energy costs would have a measurable benefit. West Fraser says diesel inflation has added about $15 per thousand board feet to its SPF and southern yellow pine lumber costs this year. Lower fuel prices could ease logging and freight costs, although contracts would delay some savings.<\/p>\n

It would be premature to budget for that relief on the strength of the vote. The next presidential decision on Iran could matter more to a sawmill\u2019s diesel bill than the composition of a congressional committee.<\/p>\n

The first useful test is whether the renewed Canada\u2013US talks produce an actual reduction in charges. The second is whether builders respond with more orders. Until then, a change in tariffs may mainly shift margins between mills, importers and customers.<\/p>\n

Trump has lost the support of a congressional majority. He still holds enough authority to deliver a lumber concession\u2014or withhold it. The industry should price a deal when it sees the terms.<\/p>\n

\n

\n

What the election could change for wood businesses<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Issue<\/th>\nPossible commercial effect<\/th>\nWhat determines the outcome<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Canada\u2019s additional 10% lumber tariff<\/td>\nLower import costs and stronger Canadian price competition.<\/td>\nA negotiated concession from Trump; underlying trade duties would remain.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Larger building-material exclusions<\/td>\nRelief for more products and supplying countries.<\/td>\nThe scope of exemptions, legislation and presidential agreement.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
January cabinet and furniture increases<\/td>\nHigher costs avoided if the scheduled rises are withdrawn.<\/td>\nAction before January 1, ahead of the new congressional terms.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Iran and energy prices<\/td>\nLower logging, transport and processing costs if fuel prices ease.<\/td>\nDiplomacy, military decisions and physical energy supply.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
US housing demand<\/td>\nMore orders for lumber, panels and finished products.<\/td>\nFinancing and affordability; tariff relief alone is insufficient.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

GWMI<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Democratic control of Congress increases the pressure to cut construction costs. 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