Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building activity, the prospects for global timber consumption and the investment needed to connect forest management with a larger market for wood in construction. GWMI concludes its detailed coverage from Dublin.<\/p>\n
The fourth and final session of ISC 2026 brought the discussion back to the relationship between forests, sawmills and the customers buying their products. Earlier presentations had examined individual producing countries and export destinations. The closing session considered how those markets might develop together, and whether the industry\u2019s existing production base is suited to the conditions ahead.<\/p>\n
The immediate commercial problem remains weak demand. Housebuilding has yet to recover convincingly in several major European markets, China is buying fewer logs, and repeated expectations of a stronger second half have disappointed producers. Yet the longer-term supply outlook is also becoming more difficult. Cheap salvage wood is less abundant, spruce resources are changing, and mills face greater uncertainty over the species, dimensions and volumes they will receive.<\/p>\n
These developments do not follow the same timetable. A sawmill can be short of orders while paying more for logs. A construction market can have a severe housing shortage while developers postpone projects. Governments can encourage timber construction while the forests supplying that industry become more exposed to drought, insects and fire.<\/p>\n
The session began with Central European raw material availability, followed by Maurice van Sante of ING on construction, Russ Taylor on global demand, and Florian Kraxner of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis on the relationship between forestry, timber buildings and carbon storage.<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\n The opening assessment concentrated on Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic, a closely connected production region with a large concentration of Europe\u2019s major sawmilling businesses. Together, the three countries were described as producing around 35 million m\u00b3 of sawn timber annually, although the total varies with German output.<\/p>\n The region has invested heavily in production capacity, further processing and engineered wood. Its mills supply European construction markets as well as customers overseas, and many businesses have developed the ability to switch between dimensions, grades and destinations. That flexibility remains an advantage. However, the raw material conditions that supported part of the industry\u2019s recent expansion are changing.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Germany provided the clearest example. The production history presented to delegates traced the expansion of the early 2000s, the interruption caused by the financial crisis, the subsequent recovery, and the exceptional conditions around the 2021 peak. Since then, output has fallen substantially.<\/p>\n The decline was described as roughly a quarter from the earlier peak, taking German production back towards levels associated with the early 2000s. This has happened despite the investment made over the intervening years. The industry therefore has considerably more advanced equipment and processing capabilities than it had two decades ago, but those assets are operating in a much less favourable commercial environment.<\/p>\n Weak demand explains part of the contraction. Log availability and procurement costs explain another part. Production capacity alone cannot sustain output when mills cannot obtain the required raw material at a price that their finished products will cover.<\/p>\n The years of large-scale forest damage created an unusual supply situation. Storms, drought and bark beetle outbreaks forced substantial quantities of timber onto the market. For sawmills able to process those logs, the additional supply could lower procurement costs and support higher production. For forest owners, the same period involved the loss of growing stock, lower timber values and expensive regeneration work.<\/p>\n As the immediate salvage volumes decline, the balance changes. Mills lose part of the low-cost supply on which they had been operating, while the damaged forest areas cannot quickly return to their previous level of production. A temporary abundance of logs can therefore be followed by a prolonged period of tighter availability.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n The presentation compared this pattern with other regions affected by major forest disturbances, including Canada. The timing differs, but the sequence is familiar: a large volume of damaged timber becomes available, the processing industry adjusts to that supply, and procurement becomes more difficult once the salvage phase passes.<\/p>\n Central Europe has already moved some way through this process. The share and volume of damaged timber have come down from the exceptional levels recorded earlier in the decade. That is welcome from the perspective of forest condition, but it changes the economics of mills that had been receiving unusually large quantities of salvage logs.<\/p>\n The next phase remains highly dependent on weather. A dry winter, a warm spring and another hot summer could increase pressure on already vulnerable stands and produce further forced harvesting. Snow cover, adequate rainfall and a more moderate growing season could lead to a very different outcome.<\/p>\n This makes a simple annual forecast difficult. Lower salvage volumes in one year do not establish a stable supply trend, and a new disturbance can quickly change the regional market. The industry has to prepare for both shortages and sudden increases in the volume requiring processing.<\/p>\n The financial effect was illustrated through a comparison of around 50 German and Austrian sawmill businesses. The analysis connected the material-cost ratio with the profitability of the sector over time. When raw material costs absorbed a smaller proportion of business income, mills had more room to cover their other expenses and retain earnings. As that ratio increased, profitability weakened.<\/p>\n The material-cost ratio in the series had fallen to around 44% at its low point before moving sharply higher again. The presentation discussed a return towards levels around 70% or more under current procurement conditions. The direction was clear: a much larger part of the value generated by sawn timber was being absorbed by the cost of obtaining the raw material.<\/p>\n The relationship between log and sawn timber prices was another central concern. Historically, movements in the two markets had provided a more workable balance for processors. More recently, log prices have remained high relative to the prices mills can obtain for their output.<\/p>\n This leaves sawmills exposed even when selling prices stop falling. A stable sawn timber market does not necessarily restore margins if procurement costs remain above the level that the product mix can support. Equally, a modest improvement in selling prices may be insufficient when the cost of logs has risen much faster.<\/p>\n The Austrian log-price series presented in Dublin showed the scale of the change. Prices were described as having roughly doubled from their 2020 low, reaching exceptionally high levels in the spring of 2026. There had subsequently been some easing, with reductions of around \u20ac10\u201315\/m\u00b3 discussed, but this had not restored the cost conditions of the earlier period.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Near-term expectations among sawmills were generally for stability or some further decline in log prices, rather than another widespread increase. That provided a possible source of relief, although the longer-term concern remained the availability of suitable logs.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n The profitable years had also changed the structure of the industry. Companies used stronger earnings to repay debt, retain funds and invest. The projects discussed extended beyond conventional sawmilling into glulam, cross-laminated timber, structural products and industrialised building systems.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Modular and serial construction received particular attention. Highly automated production can offer a way to supply housing more efficiently and create additional demand for processed timber. However, investment in manufacturing facilities does not by itself produce building orders. Some projects still depend on permissions, approvals and the development of a sufficient construction market.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n The industry has consequently entered the weaker period with new facilities and a wider product range, but also with the need to secure enough business to use those investments. Further processing can improve the value obtained from wood, although it remains dependent on customers being able to finance and complete buildings.<\/p>\n The geographical outlook for spruce added another layer of uncertainty. Maps presented during the session compared the locations of major sawmills with areas suitable for spruce under different climatic conditions. Much of the existing industrial network developed around a forest resource whose future distribution may be different.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n The areas affected by serious spruce damage have already changed over time. Under further warming, suitable growing conditions could become more concentrated in parts of southern Germany, Austria and higher or otherwise more favourable locations along the German\u2013Czech border.<\/p>\n These were conditional projections, rather than a timetable for the disappearance of spruce from individual regions. Nevertheless, they raised a practical question for mills with long investment lives: how much of the resource around an existing site will remain available, and in what condition?<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Austria and Germany have different exposure because of the altitude at which their spruce stocks are located. Austria has a large resource at higher elevations, while Germany has substantial volumes in lower-lying areas. Historically, Austria\u2019s terrain has contributed to higher harvesting and procurement costs. Under a warmer climate, some of those higher locations may also provide more favourable growing conditions.<\/p>\n Altitude, however, was not presented as a reliable dividing line between safe and unsafe forests. Recent damage has extended into areas that previously appeared less exposed. Examples from Austria showed that serious problems can occur well above the elevations commonly associated with the highest spruce risk.<\/p>\n Forest owners in such areas may also have less experience of responding to rapid deterioration. Regions accustomed to relatively stable growing conditions now face a greater need for monitoring, timely harvesting and decisions about replacement species.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Pine offers part of the potential adjustment, but it brings its own commercial and biological constraints. More pine may become available relative to spruce, and some processing regions already have an incentive to increase its use. Pine sawlog prices discussed during the session were approaching \u20ac100\/m\u00b3 at roadside in certain markets.<\/p>\n In areas where spruce availability has declined sharply, processors have a stronger reason to adapt. Elsewhere, where spruce remains accessible, changing established purchasing and production practices is more difficult.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Central European timber construction has been built largely around spruce and fir. Product specifications, manufacturing routines and customer preferences all support that position. A larger pine resource therefore needs suitable products and customers willing to use them.<\/p>\n Overseas markets have offered one outlet. Pine can be supplied within European spruce-pine-fir assortments, and US demand has provided opportunities for material that may be less favoured in certain Central European construction applications. The profitability of that business still depends on the relationship between European log costs and the prices available in the destination market.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Pine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\n The implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\n Hardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\n Log dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\n The rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\n This could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Procurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\n Mobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\n Some owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\n Active forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\n The discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\n For the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\n The example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\n The assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\n High log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\n Periods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\n Their advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\n Maurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\n Van Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\n Construction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\n That relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\n A rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\n Business confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\n Confidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n France was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\n Buying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\n Germany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\n He cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\n Even so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\n Spain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\n The Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\n Labour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\n Van Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Energy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\n The increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\n Suppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\n This becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\n Interest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\n Even where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\n Van Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n If new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Spain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\n This creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\n Germany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\n Projects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\n Building permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\n Permits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\n Residential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\n Infrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\n Flood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\n Specialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\n This led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\n He put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n For building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\n A household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\n A leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\n Renovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Van Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\n The share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\n Germany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\n These differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\n Returning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\n Germany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\n The effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\n Spain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\n Poland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\n Construction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\n The Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\n For timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\n Russ Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Taylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\n His presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\n Taylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\n Other countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\n He first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\n Those studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n His conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\n Even growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\n Taylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n His base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\n The assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n If the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\n The geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\n China\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\n British Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\n Other regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\n The recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\n He connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\n The global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\n Taylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\n Ireland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\n The increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\n Taylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n He referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\n The earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Against that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n A further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n Taylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n He put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\n The exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\n Taylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\n In his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\n He then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\n Taylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\n Even in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\n The Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Taylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\n Canadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\n The argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\n This also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\n Trade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\n Taylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\n He hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\n For global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n That may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\n Beyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\n His concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\n The recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\n International trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Taylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\n He also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n The conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\n Households need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\n The industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\n At the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\n Taylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\n He ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\n Dr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\n Kraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n He introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\n The institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\n Increasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n He began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\n In his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\n Carbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\n Kraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\n Meeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\n His argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n The forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\n The effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\n Kraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\n He argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\n Recycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\n Under suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\n Such a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\n Kraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\n The presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\n In his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\n He connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\n The harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\n Kraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\n He said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\n That need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\n Kraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\n He stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n The alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\n The first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\n The second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\n The third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\n The fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\n Kraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\n IIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\n The work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\n The global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n He argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\n The presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n One illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\n Kraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\n He also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\n Its relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\n Climate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\n Fire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\n Drying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\n Tree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\n Species that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\n He extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\n Moving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\n The industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Kraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\n He ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\n Timber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\n SITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\n The first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\n The response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\n A dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\n The response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\n Where could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\n The same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\n The answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\n Examples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\n The response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\n This also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\n Will the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\n A follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\n The response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\n The discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\n How long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\n A representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\n The question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\n Younger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\n The discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\n Van Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\n What should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\n Silvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\n If the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\n Kraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\n That could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\n He described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\n Trial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\n The industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\n Kraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\n Shorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\n This would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\n Spruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\n Closing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\n Paul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\n Paul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\n He described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\n Brannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\n Many would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\n Morten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\n He explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\n Bergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\n He gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\n Tommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\n Attention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\n She acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\n Images of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\n The formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\n GWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\n With this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\n Across the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\n The final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\n The work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\n GWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading Maurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n
Florian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\n
Questions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\n
![<\/a><\/p>\nThe opening assessment concentrated on Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic, a closely connected production region with a large concentration of Europe\u2019s major sawmilling businesses. Together, the three countries were described as producing around 35 million m\u00b3 of sawn timber annually, although the total varies with German output.<\/p>\nThe region has invested heavily in production capacity, further processing and engineered wood. Its mills supply European construction markets as well as customers overseas, and many businesses have developed the ability to switch between dimensions, grades and destinations. That flexibility remains an advantage. However, the raw material conditions that supported part of the industry\u2019s recent expansion are changing.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nGermany provided the clearest example. The production history presented to delegates traced the expansion of the early 2000s, the interruption caused by the financial crisis, the subsequent recovery, and the exceptional conditions around the 2021 peak. Since then, output has fallen substantially.<\/p>\nThe decline was described as roughly a quarter from the earlier peak, taking German production back towards levels associated with the early 2000s. This has happened despite the investment made over the intervening years. The industry therefore has considerably more advanced equipment and processing capabilities than it had two decades ago, but those assets are operating in a much less favourable commercial environment.<\/p>\nWeak demand explains part of the contraction. Log availability and procurement costs explain another part. Production capacity alone cannot sustain output when mills cannot obtain the required raw material at a price that their finished products will cover.<\/p>\nThe years of large-scale forest damage created an unusual supply situation. Storms, drought and bark beetle outbreaks forced substantial quantities of timber onto the market. For sawmills able to process those logs, the additional supply could lower procurement costs and support higher production. For forest owners, the same period involved the loss of growing stock, lower timber values and expensive regeneration work.<\/p>\nAs the immediate salvage volumes decline, the balance changes. Mills lose part of the low-cost supply on which they had been operating, while the damaged forest areas cannot quickly return to their previous level of production. A temporary abundance of logs can therefore be followed by a prolonged period of tighter availability.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe presentation compared this pattern with other regions affected by major forest disturbances, including Canada. The timing differs, but the sequence is familiar: a large volume of damaged timber becomes available, the processing industry adjusts to that supply, and procurement becomes more difficult once the salvage phase passes.<\/p>\nCentral Europe has already moved some way through this process. The share and volume of damaged timber have come down from the exceptional levels recorded earlier in the decade. That is welcome from the perspective of forest condition, but it changes the economics of mills that had been receiving unusually large quantities of salvage logs.<\/p>\nThe next phase remains highly dependent on weather. A dry winter, a warm spring and another hot summer could increase pressure on already vulnerable stands and produce further forced harvesting. Snow cover, adequate rainfall and a more moderate growing season could lead to a very different outcome.<\/p>\nThis makes a simple annual forecast difficult. Lower salvage volumes in one year do not establish a stable supply trend, and a new disturbance can quickly change the regional market. The industry has to prepare for both shortages and sudden increases in the volume requiring processing.<\/p>\nThe financial effect was illustrated through a comparison of around 50 German and Austrian sawmill businesses. The analysis connected the material-cost ratio with the profitability of the sector over time. When raw material costs absorbed a smaller proportion of business income, mills had more room to cover their other expenses and retain earnings. As that ratio increased, profitability weakened.<\/p>\nThe material-cost ratio in the series had fallen to around 44% at its low point before moving sharply higher again. The presentation discussed a return towards levels around 70% or more under current procurement conditions. The direction was clear: a much larger part of the value generated by sawn timber was being absorbed by the cost of obtaining the raw material.<\/p>\nThe relationship between log and sawn timber prices was another central concern. Historically, movements in the two markets had provided a more workable balance for processors. More recently, log prices have remained high relative to the prices mills can obtain for their output.<\/p>\nThis leaves sawmills exposed even when selling prices stop falling. A stable sawn timber market does not necessarily restore margins if procurement costs remain above the level that the product mix can support. Equally, a modest improvement in selling prices may be insufficient when the cost of logs has risen much faster.<\/p>\nThe Austrian log-price series presented in Dublin showed the scale of the change. Prices were described as having roughly doubled from their 2020 low, reaching exceptionally high levels in the spring of 2026. There had subsequently been some easing, with reductions of around \u20ac10\u201315\/m\u00b3 discussed, but this had not restored the cost conditions of the earlier period.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nNear-term expectations among sawmills were generally for stability or some further decline in log prices, rather than another widespread increase. That provided a possible source of relief, although the longer-term concern remained the availability of suitable logs.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe profitable years had also changed the structure of the industry. Companies used stronger earnings to repay debt, retain funds and invest. The projects discussed extended beyond conventional sawmilling into glulam, cross-laminated timber, structural products and industrialised building systems.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nModular and serial construction received particular attention. Highly automated production can offer a way to supply housing more efficiently and create additional demand for processed timber. However, investment in manufacturing facilities does not by itself produce building orders. Some projects still depend on permissions, approvals and the development of a sufficient construction market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe industry has consequently entered the weaker period with new facilities and a wider product range, but also with the need to secure enough business to use those investments. Further processing can improve the value obtained from wood, although it remains dependent on customers being able to finance and complete buildings.<\/p>\nThe geographical outlook for spruce added another layer of uncertainty. Maps presented during the session compared the locations of major sawmills with areas suitable for spruce under different climatic conditions. Much of the existing industrial network developed around a forest resource whose future distribution may be different.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe areas affected by serious spruce damage have already changed over time. Under further warming, suitable growing conditions could become more concentrated in parts of southern Germany, Austria and higher or otherwise more favourable locations along the German\u2013Czech border.<\/p>\nThese were conditional projections, rather than a timetable for the disappearance of spruce from individual regions. Nevertheless, they raised a practical question for mills with long investment lives: how much of the resource around an existing site will remain available, and in what condition?<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAustria and Germany have different exposure because of the altitude at which their spruce stocks are located. Austria has a large resource at higher elevations, while Germany has substantial volumes in lower-lying areas. Historically, Austria\u2019s terrain has contributed to higher harvesting and procurement costs. Under a warmer climate, some of those higher locations may also provide more favourable growing conditions.<\/p>\nAltitude, however, was not presented as a reliable dividing line between safe and unsafe forests. Recent damage has extended into areas that previously appeared less exposed. Examples from Austria showed that serious problems can occur well above the elevations commonly associated with the highest spruce risk.<\/p>\nForest owners in such areas may also have less experience of responding to rapid deterioration. Regions accustomed to relatively stable growing conditions now face a greater need for monitoring, timely harvesting and decisions about replacement species.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine offers part of the potential adjustment, but it brings its own commercial and biological constraints. More pine may become available relative to spruce, and some processing regions already have an incentive to increase its use. Pine sawlog prices discussed during the session were approaching \u20ac100\/m\u00b3 at roadside in certain markets.<\/p>\nIn areas where spruce availability has declined sharply, processors have a stronger reason to adapt. Elsewhere, where spruce remains accessible, changing established purchasing and production practices is more difficult.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nCentral European timber construction has been built largely around spruce and fir. Product specifications, manufacturing routines and customer preferences all support that position. A larger pine resource therefore needs suitable products and customers willing to use them.<\/p>\nOverseas markets have offered one outlet. Pine can be supplied within European spruce-pine-fir assortments, and US demand has provided opportunities for material that may be less favoured in certain Central European construction applications. The profitability of that business still depends on the relationship between European log costs and the prices available in the destination market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\nThe implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\nHardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\nLog dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\nThe rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\nThis could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nGermany provided the clearest example. The production history presented to delegates traced the expansion of the early 2000s, the interruption caused by the financial crisis, the subsequent recovery, and the exceptional conditions around the 2021 peak. Since then, output has fallen substantially.<\/p>\nThe decline was described as roughly a quarter from the earlier peak, taking German production back towards levels associated with the early 2000s. This has happened despite the investment made over the intervening years. The industry therefore has considerably more advanced equipment and processing capabilities than it had two decades ago, but those assets are operating in a much less favourable commercial environment.<\/p>\nWeak demand explains part of the contraction. Log availability and procurement costs explain another part. Production capacity alone cannot sustain output when mills cannot obtain the required raw material at a price that their finished products will cover.<\/p>\nThe years of large-scale forest damage created an unusual supply situation. Storms, drought and bark beetle outbreaks forced substantial quantities of timber onto the market. For sawmills able to process those logs, the additional supply could lower procurement costs and support higher production. For forest owners, the same period involved the loss of growing stock, lower timber values and expensive regeneration work.<\/p>\nAs the immediate salvage volumes decline, the balance changes. Mills lose part of the low-cost supply on which they had been operating, while the damaged forest areas cannot quickly return to their previous level of production. A temporary abundance of logs can therefore be followed by a prolonged period of tighter availability.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe presentation compared this pattern with other regions affected by major forest disturbances, including Canada. The timing differs, but the sequence is familiar: a large volume of damaged timber becomes available, the processing industry adjusts to that supply, and procurement becomes more difficult once the salvage phase passes.<\/p>\nCentral Europe has already moved some way through this process. The share and volume of damaged timber have come down from the exceptional levels recorded earlier in the decade. That is welcome from the perspective of forest condition, but it changes the economics of mills that had been receiving unusually large quantities of salvage logs.<\/p>\nThe next phase remains highly dependent on weather. A dry winter, a warm spring and another hot summer could increase pressure on already vulnerable stands and produce further forced harvesting. Snow cover, adequate rainfall and a more moderate growing season could lead to a very different outcome.<\/p>\nThis makes a simple annual forecast difficult. Lower salvage volumes in one year do not establish a stable supply trend, and a new disturbance can quickly change the regional market. The industry has to prepare for both shortages and sudden increases in the volume requiring processing.<\/p>\nThe financial effect was illustrated through a comparison of around 50 German and Austrian sawmill businesses. The analysis connected the material-cost ratio with the profitability of the sector over time. When raw material costs absorbed a smaller proportion of business income, mills had more room to cover their other expenses and retain earnings. As that ratio increased, profitability weakened.<\/p>\nThe material-cost ratio in the series had fallen to around 44% at its low point before moving sharply higher again. The presentation discussed a return towards levels around 70% or more under current procurement conditions. The direction was clear: a much larger part of the value generated by sawn timber was being absorbed by the cost of obtaining the raw material.<\/p>\nThe relationship between log and sawn timber prices was another central concern. Historically, movements in the two markets had provided a more workable balance for processors. More recently, log prices have remained high relative to the prices mills can obtain for their output.<\/p>\nThis leaves sawmills exposed even when selling prices stop falling. A stable sawn timber market does not necessarily restore margins if procurement costs remain above the level that the product mix can support. Equally, a modest improvement in selling prices may be insufficient when the cost of logs has risen much faster.<\/p>\nThe Austrian log-price series presented in Dublin showed the scale of the change. Prices were described as having roughly doubled from their 2020 low, reaching exceptionally high levels in the spring of 2026. There had subsequently been some easing, with reductions of around \u20ac10\u201315\/m\u00b3 discussed, but this had not restored the cost conditions of the earlier period.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nNear-term expectations among sawmills were generally for stability or some further decline in log prices, rather than another widespread increase. That provided a possible source of relief, although the longer-term concern remained the availability of suitable logs.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe profitable years had also changed the structure of the industry. Companies used stronger earnings to repay debt, retain funds and invest. The projects discussed extended beyond conventional sawmilling into glulam, cross-laminated timber, structural products and industrialised building systems.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nModular and serial construction received particular attention. Highly automated production can offer a way to supply housing more efficiently and create additional demand for processed timber. However, investment in manufacturing facilities does not by itself produce building orders. Some projects still depend on permissions, approvals and the development of a sufficient construction market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe industry has consequently entered the weaker period with new facilities and a wider product range, but also with the need to secure enough business to use those investments. Further processing can improve the value obtained from wood, although it remains dependent on customers being able to finance and complete buildings.<\/p>\nThe geographical outlook for spruce added another layer of uncertainty. Maps presented during the session compared the locations of major sawmills with areas suitable for spruce under different climatic conditions. Much of the existing industrial network developed around a forest resource whose future distribution may be different.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe areas affected by serious spruce damage have already changed over time. Under further warming, suitable growing conditions could become more concentrated in parts of southern Germany, Austria and higher or otherwise more favourable locations along the German\u2013Czech border.<\/p>\nThese were conditional projections, rather than a timetable for the disappearance of spruce from individual regions. Nevertheless, they raised a practical question for mills with long investment lives: how much of the resource around an existing site will remain available, and in what condition?<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAustria and Germany have different exposure because of the altitude at which their spruce stocks are located. Austria has a large resource at higher elevations, while Germany has substantial volumes in lower-lying areas. Historically, Austria\u2019s terrain has contributed to higher harvesting and procurement costs. Under a warmer climate, some of those higher locations may also provide more favourable growing conditions.<\/p>\nAltitude, however, was not presented as a reliable dividing line between safe and unsafe forests. Recent damage has extended into areas that previously appeared less exposed. Examples from Austria showed that serious problems can occur well above the elevations commonly associated with the highest spruce risk.<\/p>\nForest owners in such areas may also have less experience of responding to rapid deterioration. Regions accustomed to relatively stable growing conditions now face a greater need for monitoring, timely harvesting and decisions about replacement species.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine offers part of the potential adjustment, but it brings its own commercial and biological constraints. More pine may become available relative to spruce, and some processing regions already have an incentive to increase its use. Pine sawlog prices discussed during the session were approaching \u20ac100\/m\u00b3 at roadside in certain markets.<\/p>\nIn areas where spruce availability has declined sharply, processors have a stronger reason to adapt. Elsewhere, where spruce remains accessible, changing established purchasing and production practices is more difficult.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nCentral European timber construction has been built largely around spruce and fir. Product specifications, manufacturing routines and customer preferences all support that position. A larger pine resource therefore needs suitable products and customers willing to use them.<\/p>\nOverseas markets have offered one outlet. Pine can be supplied within European spruce-pine-fir assortments, and US demand has provided opportunities for material that may be less favoured in certain Central European construction applications. The profitability of that business still depends on the relationship between European log costs and the prices available in the destination market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\nThe implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\nHardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\nLog dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\nThe rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\nThis could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nThe presentation compared this pattern with other regions affected by major forest disturbances, including Canada. The timing differs, but the sequence is familiar: a large volume of damaged timber becomes available, the processing industry adjusts to that supply, and procurement becomes more difficult once the salvage phase passes.<\/p>\nCentral Europe has already moved some way through this process. The share and volume of damaged timber have come down from the exceptional levels recorded earlier in the decade. That is welcome from the perspective of forest condition, but it changes the economics of mills that had been receiving unusually large quantities of salvage logs.<\/p>\nThe next phase remains highly dependent on weather. A dry winter, a warm spring and another hot summer could increase pressure on already vulnerable stands and produce further forced harvesting. Snow cover, adequate rainfall and a more moderate growing season could lead to a very different outcome.<\/p>\nThis makes a simple annual forecast difficult. Lower salvage volumes in one year do not establish a stable supply trend, and a new disturbance can quickly change the regional market. The industry has to prepare for both shortages and sudden increases in the volume requiring processing.<\/p>\nThe financial effect was illustrated through a comparison of around 50 German and Austrian sawmill businesses. The analysis connected the material-cost ratio with the profitability of the sector over time. When raw material costs absorbed a smaller proportion of business income, mills had more room to cover their other expenses and retain earnings. As that ratio increased, profitability weakened.<\/p>\nThe material-cost ratio in the series had fallen to around 44% at its low point before moving sharply higher again. The presentation discussed a return towards levels around 70% or more under current procurement conditions. The direction was clear: a much larger part of the value generated by sawn timber was being absorbed by the cost of obtaining the raw material.<\/p>\nThe relationship between log and sawn timber prices was another central concern. Historically, movements in the two markets had provided a more workable balance for processors. More recently, log prices have remained high relative to the prices mills can obtain for their output.<\/p>\nThis leaves sawmills exposed even when selling prices stop falling. A stable sawn timber market does not necessarily restore margins if procurement costs remain above the level that the product mix can support. Equally, a modest improvement in selling prices may be insufficient when the cost of logs has risen much faster.<\/p>\nThe Austrian log-price series presented in Dublin showed the scale of the change. Prices were described as having roughly doubled from their 2020 low, reaching exceptionally high levels in the spring of 2026. There had subsequently been some easing, with reductions of around \u20ac10\u201315\/m\u00b3 discussed, but this had not restored the cost conditions of the earlier period.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nNear-term expectations among sawmills were generally for stability or some further decline in log prices, rather than another widespread increase. That provided a possible source of relief, although the longer-term concern remained the availability of suitable logs.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe profitable years had also changed the structure of the industry. Companies used stronger earnings to repay debt, retain funds and invest. The projects discussed extended beyond conventional sawmilling into glulam, cross-laminated timber, structural products and industrialised building systems.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nModular and serial construction received particular attention. Highly automated production can offer a way to supply housing more efficiently and create additional demand for processed timber. However, investment in manufacturing facilities does not by itself produce building orders. Some projects still depend on permissions, approvals and the development of a sufficient construction market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe industry has consequently entered the weaker period with new facilities and a wider product range, but also with the need to secure enough business to use those investments. Further processing can improve the value obtained from wood, although it remains dependent on customers being able to finance and complete buildings.<\/p>\nThe geographical outlook for spruce added another layer of uncertainty. Maps presented during the session compared the locations of major sawmills with areas suitable for spruce under different climatic conditions. Much of the existing industrial network developed around a forest resource whose future distribution may be different.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe areas affected by serious spruce damage have already changed over time. Under further warming, suitable growing conditions could become more concentrated in parts of southern Germany, Austria and higher or otherwise more favourable locations along the German\u2013Czech border.<\/p>\nThese were conditional projections, rather than a timetable for the disappearance of spruce from individual regions. Nevertheless, they raised a practical question for mills with long investment lives: how much of the resource around an existing site will remain available, and in what condition?<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAustria and Germany have different exposure because of the altitude at which their spruce stocks are located. Austria has a large resource at higher elevations, while Germany has substantial volumes in lower-lying areas. Historically, Austria\u2019s terrain has contributed to higher harvesting and procurement costs. Under a warmer climate, some of those higher locations may also provide more favourable growing conditions.<\/p>\nAltitude, however, was not presented as a reliable dividing line between safe and unsafe forests. Recent damage has extended into areas that previously appeared less exposed. Examples from Austria showed that serious problems can occur well above the elevations commonly associated with the highest spruce risk.<\/p>\nForest owners in such areas may also have less experience of responding to rapid deterioration. Regions accustomed to relatively stable growing conditions now face a greater need for monitoring, timely harvesting and decisions about replacement species.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine offers part of the potential adjustment, but it brings its own commercial and biological constraints. More pine may become available relative to spruce, and some processing regions already have an incentive to increase its use. Pine sawlog prices discussed during the session were approaching \u20ac100\/m\u00b3 at roadside in certain markets.<\/p>\nIn areas where spruce availability has declined sharply, processors have a stronger reason to adapt. Elsewhere, where spruce remains accessible, changing established purchasing and production practices is more difficult.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nCentral European timber construction has been built largely around spruce and fir. Product specifications, manufacturing routines and customer preferences all support that position. A larger pine resource therefore needs suitable products and customers willing to use them.<\/p>\nOverseas markets have offered one outlet. Pine can be supplied within European spruce-pine-fir assortments, and US demand has provided opportunities for material that may be less favoured in certain Central European construction applications. The profitability of that business still depends on the relationship between European log costs and the prices available in the destination market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\nThe implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\nHardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\nLog dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\nThe rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\nThis could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nNear-term expectations among sawmills were generally for stability or some further decline in log prices, rather than another widespread increase. That provided a possible source of relief, although the longer-term concern remained the availability of suitable logs.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe profitable years had also changed the structure of the industry. Companies used stronger earnings to repay debt, retain funds and invest. The projects discussed extended beyond conventional sawmilling into glulam, cross-laminated timber, structural products and industrialised building systems.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nModular and serial construction received particular attention. Highly automated production can offer a way to supply housing more efficiently and create additional demand for processed timber. However, investment in manufacturing facilities does not by itself produce building orders. Some projects still depend on permissions, approvals and the development of a sufficient construction market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe industry has consequently entered the weaker period with new facilities and a wider product range, but also with the need to secure enough business to use those investments. Further processing can improve the value obtained from wood, although it remains dependent on customers being able to finance and complete buildings.<\/p>\nThe geographical outlook for spruce added another layer of uncertainty. Maps presented during the session compared the locations of major sawmills with areas suitable for spruce under different climatic conditions. Much of the existing industrial network developed around a forest resource whose future distribution may be different.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe areas affected by serious spruce damage have already changed over time. Under further warming, suitable growing conditions could become more concentrated in parts of southern Germany, Austria and higher or otherwise more favourable locations along the German\u2013Czech border.<\/p>\nThese were conditional projections, rather than a timetable for the disappearance of spruce from individual regions. Nevertheless, they raised a practical question for mills with long investment lives: how much of the resource around an existing site will remain available, and in what condition?<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAustria and Germany have different exposure because of the altitude at which their spruce stocks are located. Austria has a large resource at higher elevations, while Germany has substantial volumes in lower-lying areas. Historically, Austria\u2019s terrain has contributed to higher harvesting and procurement costs. Under a warmer climate, some of those higher locations may also provide more favourable growing conditions.<\/p>\nAltitude, however, was not presented as a reliable dividing line between safe and unsafe forests. Recent damage has extended into areas that previously appeared less exposed. Examples from Austria showed that serious problems can occur well above the elevations commonly associated with the highest spruce risk.<\/p>\nForest owners in such areas may also have less experience of responding to rapid deterioration. Regions accustomed to relatively stable growing conditions now face a greater need for monitoring, timely harvesting and decisions about replacement species.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine offers part of the potential adjustment, but it brings its own commercial and biological constraints. More pine may become available relative to spruce, and some processing regions already have an incentive to increase its use. Pine sawlog prices discussed during the session were approaching \u20ac100\/m\u00b3 at roadside in certain markets.<\/p>\nIn areas where spruce availability has declined sharply, processors have a stronger reason to adapt. Elsewhere, where spruce remains accessible, changing established purchasing and production practices is more difficult.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nCentral European timber construction has been built largely around spruce and fir. Product specifications, manufacturing routines and customer preferences all support that position. A larger pine resource therefore needs suitable products and customers willing to use them.<\/p>\nOverseas markets have offered one outlet. Pine can be supplied within European spruce-pine-fir assortments, and US demand has provided opportunities for material that may be less favoured in certain Central European construction applications. The profitability of that business still depends on the relationship between European log costs and the prices available in the destination market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\nThe implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\nHardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\nLog dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\nThe rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\nThis could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nThe profitable years had also changed the structure of the industry. Companies used stronger earnings to repay debt, retain funds and invest. The projects discussed extended beyond conventional sawmilling into glulam, cross-laminated timber, structural products and industrialised building systems.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nModular and serial construction received particular attention. Highly automated production can offer a way to supply housing more efficiently and create additional demand for processed timber. However, investment in manufacturing facilities does not by itself produce building orders. Some projects still depend on permissions, approvals and the development of a sufficient construction market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe industry has consequently entered the weaker period with new facilities and a wider product range, but also with the need to secure enough business to use those investments. Further processing can improve the value obtained from wood, although it remains dependent on customers being able to finance and complete buildings.<\/p>\nThe geographical outlook for spruce added another layer of uncertainty. Maps presented during the session compared the locations of major sawmills with areas suitable for spruce under different climatic conditions. Much of the existing industrial network developed around a forest resource whose future distribution may be different.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe areas affected by serious spruce damage have already changed over time. Under further warming, suitable growing conditions could become more concentrated in parts of southern Germany, Austria and higher or otherwise more favourable locations along the German\u2013Czech border.<\/p>\nThese were conditional projections, rather than a timetable for the disappearance of spruce from individual regions. Nevertheless, they raised a practical question for mills with long investment lives: how much of the resource around an existing site will remain available, and in what condition?<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAustria and Germany have different exposure because of the altitude at which their spruce stocks are located. Austria has a large resource at higher elevations, while Germany has substantial volumes in lower-lying areas. Historically, Austria\u2019s terrain has contributed to higher harvesting and procurement costs. Under a warmer climate, some of those higher locations may also provide more favourable growing conditions.<\/p>\nAltitude, however, was not presented as a reliable dividing line between safe and unsafe forests. Recent damage has extended into areas that previously appeared less exposed. Examples from Austria showed that serious problems can occur well above the elevations commonly associated with the highest spruce risk.<\/p>\nForest owners in such areas may also have less experience of responding to rapid deterioration. Regions accustomed to relatively stable growing conditions now face a greater need for monitoring, timely harvesting and decisions about replacement species.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine offers part of the potential adjustment, but it brings its own commercial and biological constraints. More pine may become available relative to spruce, and some processing regions already have an incentive to increase its use. Pine sawlog prices discussed during the session were approaching \u20ac100\/m\u00b3 at roadside in certain markets.<\/p>\nIn areas where spruce availability has declined sharply, processors have a stronger reason to adapt. Elsewhere, where spruce remains accessible, changing established purchasing and production practices is more difficult.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nCentral European timber construction has been built largely around spruce and fir. Product specifications, manufacturing routines and customer preferences all support that position. A larger pine resource therefore needs suitable products and customers willing to use them.<\/p>\nOverseas markets have offered one outlet. Pine can be supplied within European spruce-pine-fir assortments, and US demand has provided opportunities for material that may be less favoured in certain Central European construction applications. The profitability of that business still depends on the relationship between European log costs and the prices available in the destination market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\nThe implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\nHardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\nLog dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\nThe rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\nThis could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nModular and serial construction received particular attention. Highly automated production can offer a way to supply housing more efficiently and create additional demand for processed timber. However, investment in manufacturing facilities does not by itself produce building orders. Some projects still depend on permissions, approvals and the development of a sufficient construction market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe industry has consequently entered the weaker period with new facilities and a wider product range, but also with the need to secure enough business to use those investments. Further processing can improve the value obtained from wood, although it remains dependent on customers being able to finance and complete buildings.<\/p>\nThe geographical outlook for spruce added another layer of uncertainty. Maps presented during the session compared the locations of major sawmills with areas suitable for spruce under different climatic conditions. Much of the existing industrial network developed around a forest resource whose future distribution may be different.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe areas affected by serious spruce damage have already changed over time. Under further warming, suitable growing conditions could become more concentrated in parts of southern Germany, Austria and higher or otherwise more favourable locations along the German\u2013Czech border.<\/p>\nThese were conditional projections, rather than a timetable for the disappearance of spruce from individual regions. Nevertheless, they raised a practical question for mills with long investment lives: how much of the resource around an existing site will remain available, and in what condition?<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAustria and Germany have different exposure because of the altitude at which their spruce stocks are located. Austria has a large resource at higher elevations, while Germany has substantial volumes in lower-lying areas. Historically, Austria\u2019s terrain has contributed to higher harvesting and procurement costs. Under a warmer climate, some of those higher locations may also provide more favourable growing conditions.<\/p>\nAltitude, however, was not presented as a reliable dividing line between safe and unsafe forests. Recent damage has extended into areas that previously appeared less exposed. Examples from Austria showed that serious problems can occur well above the elevations commonly associated with the highest spruce risk.<\/p>\nForest owners in such areas may also have less experience of responding to rapid deterioration. Regions accustomed to relatively stable growing conditions now face a greater need for monitoring, timely harvesting and decisions about replacement species.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine offers part of the potential adjustment, but it brings its own commercial and biological constraints. More pine may become available relative to spruce, and some processing regions already have an incentive to increase its use. Pine sawlog prices discussed during the session were approaching \u20ac100\/m\u00b3 at roadside in certain markets.<\/p>\nIn areas where spruce availability has declined sharply, processors have a stronger reason to adapt. Elsewhere, where spruce remains accessible, changing established purchasing and production practices is more difficult.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nCentral European timber construction has been built largely around spruce and fir. Product specifications, manufacturing routines and customer preferences all support that position. A larger pine resource therefore needs suitable products and customers willing to use them.<\/p>\nOverseas markets have offered one outlet. Pine can be supplied within European spruce-pine-fir assortments, and US demand has provided opportunities for material that may be less favoured in certain Central European construction applications. The profitability of that business still depends on the relationship between European log costs and the prices available in the destination market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\nThe implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\nHardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\nLog dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\nThe rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\nThis could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nThe industry has consequently entered the weaker period with new facilities and a wider product range, but also with the need to secure enough business to use those investments. Further processing can improve the value obtained from wood, although it remains dependent on customers being able to finance and complete buildings.<\/p>\nThe geographical outlook for spruce added another layer of uncertainty. Maps presented during the session compared the locations of major sawmills with areas suitable for spruce under different climatic conditions. Much of the existing industrial network developed around a forest resource whose future distribution may be different.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe areas affected by serious spruce damage have already changed over time. Under further warming, suitable growing conditions could become more concentrated in parts of southern Germany, Austria and higher or otherwise more favourable locations along the German\u2013Czech border.<\/p>\nThese were conditional projections, rather than a timetable for the disappearance of spruce from individual regions. Nevertheless, they raised a practical question for mills with long investment lives: how much of the resource around an existing site will remain available, and in what condition?<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAustria and Germany have different exposure because of the altitude at which their spruce stocks are located. Austria has a large resource at higher elevations, while Germany has substantial volumes in lower-lying areas. Historically, Austria\u2019s terrain has contributed to higher harvesting and procurement costs. Under a warmer climate, some of those higher locations may also provide more favourable growing conditions.<\/p>\nAltitude, however, was not presented as a reliable dividing line between safe and unsafe forests. Recent damage has extended into areas that previously appeared less exposed. Examples from Austria showed that serious problems can occur well above the elevations commonly associated with the highest spruce risk.<\/p>\nForest owners in such areas may also have less experience of responding to rapid deterioration. Regions accustomed to relatively stable growing conditions now face a greater need for monitoring, timely harvesting and decisions about replacement species.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine offers part of the potential adjustment, but it brings its own commercial and biological constraints. More pine may become available relative to spruce, and some processing regions already have an incentive to increase its use. Pine sawlog prices discussed during the session were approaching \u20ac100\/m\u00b3 at roadside in certain markets.<\/p>\nIn areas where spruce availability has declined sharply, processors have a stronger reason to adapt. Elsewhere, where spruce remains accessible, changing established purchasing and production practices is more difficult.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nCentral European timber construction has been built largely around spruce and fir. Product specifications, manufacturing routines and customer preferences all support that position. A larger pine resource therefore needs suitable products and customers willing to use them.<\/p>\nOverseas markets have offered one outlet. Pine can be supplied within European spruce-pine-fir assortments, and US demand has provided opportunities for material that may be less favoured in certain Central European construction applications. The profitability of that business still depends on the relationship between European log costs and the prices available in the destination market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\nThe implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\nHardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\nLog dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\nThe rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\nThis could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nThe areas affected by serious spruce damage have already changed over time. Under further warming, suitable growing conditions could become more concentrated in parts of southern Germany, Austria and higher or otherwise more favourable locations along the German\u2013Czech border.<\/p>\nThese were conditional projections, rather than a timetable for the disappearance of spruce from individual regions. Nevertheless, they raised a practical question for mills with long investment lives: how much of the resource around an existing site will remain available, and in what condition?<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAustria and Germany have different exposure because of the altitude at which their spruce stocks are located. Austria has a large resource at higher elevations, while Germany has substantial volumes in lower-lying areas. Historically, Austria\u2019s terrain has contributed to higher harvesting and procurement costs. Under a warmer climate, some of those higher locations may also provide more favourable growing conditions.<\/p>\nAltitude, however, was not presented as a reliable dividing line between safe and unsafe forests. Recent damage has extended into areas that previously appeared less exposed. Examples from Austria showed that serious problems can occur well above the elevations commonly associated with the highest spruce risk.<\/p>\nForest owners in such areas may also have less experience of responding to rapid deterioration. Regions accustomed to relatively stable growing conditions now face a greater need for monitoring, timely harvesting and decisions about replacement species.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine offers part of the potential adjustment, but it brings its own commercial and biological constraints. More pine may become available relative to spruce, and some processing regions already have an incentive to increase its use. Pine sawlog prices discussed during the session were approaching \u20ac100\/m\u00b3 at roadside in certain markets.<\/p>\nIn areas where spruce availability has declined sharply, processors have a stronger reason to adapt. Elsewhere, where spruce remains accessible, changing established purchasing and production practices is more difficult.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nCentral European timber construction has been built largely around spruce and fir. Product specifications, manufacturing routines and customer preferences all support that position. A larger pine resource therefore needs suitable products and customers willing to use them.<\/p>\nOverseas markets have offered one outlet. Pine can be supplied within European spruce-pine-fir assortments, and US demand has provided opportunities for material that may be less favoured in certain Central European construction applications. The profitability of that business still depends on the relationship between European log costs and the prices available in the destination market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\nThe implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\nHardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\nLog dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\nThe rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\nThis could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nAustria and Germany have different exposure because of the altitude at which their spruce stocks are located. Austria has a large resource at higher elevations, while Germany has substantial volumes in lower-lying areas. Historically, Austria\u2019s terrain has contributed to higher harvesting and procurement costs. Under a warmer climate, some of those higher locations may also provide more favourable growing conditions.<\/p>\nAltitude, however, was not presented as a reliable dividing line between safe and unsafe forests. Recent damage has extended into areas that previously appeared less exposed. Examples from Austria showed that serious problems can occur well above the elevations commonly associated with the highest spruce risk.<\/p>\nForest owners in such areas may also have less experience of responding to rapid deterioration. Regions accustomed to relatively stable growing conditions now face a greater need for monitoring, timely harvesting and decisions about replacement species.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine offers part of the potential adjustment, but it brings its own commercial and biological constraints. More pine may become available relative to spruce, and some processing regions already have an incentive to increase its use. Pine sawlog prices discussed during the session were approaching \u20ac100\/m\u00b3 at roadside in certain markets.<\/p>\nIn areas where spruce availability has declined sharply, processors have a stronger reason to adapt. Elsewhere, where spruce remains accessible, changing established purchasing and production practices is more difficult.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nCentral European timber construction has been built largely around spruce and fir. Product specifications, manufacturing routines and customer preferences all support that position. A larger pine resource therefore needs suitable products and customers willing to use them.<\/p>\nOverseas markets have offered one outlet. Pine can be supplied within European spruce-pine-fir assortments, and US demand has provided opportunities for material that may be less favoured in certain Central European construction applications. The profitability of that business still depends on the relationship between European log costs and the prices available in the destination market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\nThe implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\nHardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\nLog dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\nThe rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\nThis could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nPine offers part of the potential adjustment, but it brings its own commercial and biological constraints. More pine may become available relative to spruce, and some processing regions already have an incentive to increase its use. Pine sawlog prices discussed during the session were approaching \u20ac100\/m\u00b3 at roadside in certain markets.<\/p>\nIn areas where spruce availability has declined sharply, processors have a stronger reason to adapt. Elsewhere, where spruce remains accessible, changing established purchasing and production practices is more difficult.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nCentral European timber construction has been built largely around spruce and fir. Product specifications, manufacturing routines and customer preferences all support that position. A larger pine resource therefore needs suitable products and customers willing to use them.<\/p>\nOverseas markets have offered one outlet. Pine can be supplied within European spruce-pine-fir assortments, and US demand has provided opportunities for material that may be less favoured in certain Central European construction applications. The profitability of that business still depends on the relationship between European log costs and the prices available in the destination market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\nThe implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\nHardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\nLog dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\nThe rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\nThis could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nCentral European timber construction has been built largely around spruce and fir. Product specifications, manufacturing routines and customer preferences all support that position. A larger pine resource therefore needs suitable products and customers willing to use them.<\/p>\nOverseas markets have offered one outlet. Pine can be supplied within European spruce-pine-fir assortments, and US demand has provided opportunities for material that may be less favoured in certain Central European construction applications. The profitability of that business still depends on the relationship between European log costs and the prices available in the destination market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nPine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\nThe implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\nHardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\nLog dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\nThe rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\nThis could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nPine should also not be treated as immune to climate stress. The presentation included recent examples of pine deterioration in Austria and along parts of the northern Alpine region. Trees that had appeared healthy could decline quickly during severe drought.<\/p>\nThe implication for forest conversion was that replacing spruce with another familiar conifer would not provide a universal solution. Species choice needs to account for local growing conditions and the possibility that those conditions will change during the life of the stand.<\/p>\nHardwoods will consequently require more attention. As the composition of forests changes, the industry will need more research into how different hardwood species can be used in construction. That work involves creating commercially useful products from the material likely to be available, alongside the adaptation taking place in forests.<\/p>\nLog dimensions will also change. Active conversion of existing stands can bring larger-diameter timber onto the market as mature trees are removed. At the same time, shorter rotations can produce smaller logs.<\/p>\nThe rotation periods traditionally associated with spruce are already being reconsidered. The discussion contrasted the long rotations taught in earlier decades with progressively shorter periods intended to reduce the risk of losing trees before harvest. A move towards rotations of around 50 years or less would alter the dimensions available to sawmills.<\/p>\nThis could leave the industry handling more material at both ends of the diameter range. Large logs from the conversion of existing forests and smaller logs from younger stands may become more common, while the medium-sized logs favoured by many modern sawmills become less readily available.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nProcurement and processing investments will have to take that possibility into account. The resource may remain substantial in total, but its characteristics could be less closely matched to the equipment and product programmes developed around the present supply.<\/p>\nMobilising the available wood is a separate difficulty. Germany\u2019s fragmented private forest ownership was discussed as a major practical constraint. Around half of the forest area is privately owned, and a substantial share of that private resource is held in small properties.<\/p>\nSome owners have limited involvement in forestry. They may not know precisely what they own, how to manage it or how quickly damage is developing. Reaching those owners and organising harvesting can be difficult even when the trees have a commercial use.<\/p>\nActive forest conversion therefore requires more than identifying suitable species. It requires owners to make decisions, organise interventions and accept that keeping a high standing volume is not always the lowest-risk option.<\/p>\nThe discussion referred to heavily stocked stands in which reducing the volume exposed to damage may be part of a more cautious management strategy. Such interventions can release timber in the short term while changing the structure of the future resource.<\/p>\nFor the sawmilling sector, consolidation is likely to be part of the adjustment. Changes in ownership may allow groups to redistribute production among sites or improve their use of available logs. Acquiring another mill does not necessarily mean that the combined business will maintain the full historical output of every plant.<\/p>\nThe example used in the session was that combining three production sites may result in substantially less than three fully utilised units. Installed capacity can remain in place while actual production is reduced to fit the raw material and market conditions.<\/p>\nThe assessment did not anticipate a straightforward return to the previous German production peak. The more likely direction was a period of lower output, further changes in ownership and increasing attention to the efficiency with which the available resource is used.<\/p>\nHigh log costs also make overseas markets harder to serve. Central European producers can manufacture a wide range of products, but they still need prices that cover procurement, processing and transport. The ability to sell into a market and the ability to do so profitably are separate questions.<\/p>\nPeriods of opportunity will remain. Disturbances elsewhere, changing trade flows or stronger demand in a particular destination can improve export conditions. Central European sawmills retain considerable experience in responding to those openings.<\/p>\nTheir advantage will depend increasingly on how quickly they can adjust product dimensions, quality requirements and destinations while working with a less predictable raw material supply. The underlying resource is changing, and the industrial response will have to extend well beyond waiting for construction orders to recover.<\/p>\nMaurice van Sante \u2014 European construction: renovation provides stability while new building struggles<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a>Maurice van Sante<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nMaurice van Sante, ING\u2019s senior construction economist and sector-team leader, examined the overall construction market, the differences between European countries and the consequences for building-material suppliers.<\/p>\nVan Sante began by placing construction alongside other major sectors of the European economy. The comparison used production volumes, excluding price changes, to show how activity had developed.<\/p>\nConstruction occupied a middle position. It was not enjoying the exceptional growth seen in technology, where investment in digitalisation, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and data centres had supported rapid expansion. At the same time, the construction sector as a whole was following a more stable course than its traditional reputation for sharp cycles might imply.<\/p>\nThat relative stability can be misleading for timber suppliers. Construction covers several different markets, and the parts that are growing do not all use the same quantities or types of wood.<\/p>\nA rise in infrastructure spending can support the overall construction index while residential building remains weak. Renovation can keep contractors busy even when developers postpone new housing projects. To understand the outlook for timber demand, suppliers need to examine which activities are generating the work.<\/p>\nBusiness confidence remained subdued. The monthly surveys discussed by van Sante showed that European contractors were generally pessimistic, although the degree of pessimism differed significantly between countries.<\/p>\nConfidence had been improving before renewed geopolitical uncertainty interrupted the recovery. Conflict in the Middle East had added to concerns about costs and the wider economic outlook. Contractors were again becoming more cautious about the conditions in which they would have to deliver projects.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nFrance was the most difficult of the major markets discussed. Confidence had weakened, and political uncertainty was affecting the willingness of households and businesses to make large commitments.<\/p>\nBuying a new home, commissioning an office or investing in a factory involves decisions that extend over many years. When buyers are uncertain about their income, the policy environment or the direction of the economy, those decisions can be postponed.<\/p>\nGermany also remained a weak market, but van Sante identified signs of gradual improvement. Expectations surrounding the announced \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund had helped sentiment, and the prospect of public investment offered support after several years of declining construction activity.<\/p>\nHe cautioned that the headline value of the fund should not be interpreted as an equivalent amount of entirely new construction work. Some of the money would support spending that might otherwise have come from existing budgets.<\/p>\nEven so, the programme could help the market. The question was how quickly funds would become actual projects and how much additional activity they would generate.<\/p>\nSpain presented a more positive picture. Its wider economy had performed better, tourism remained supportive and EU-funded investment had contributed to activity. The construction market was recovering, although it had not fully returned to its pre-pandemic position.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands also had comparatively favourable conditions. Production remained at a relatively high level, but the country faced limits on how much further it could expand.<\/p>\nLabour shortages were one constraint. Restrictions associated with nitrogen emissions were another. These factors could prevent additional demand from translating into a corresponding increase in building activity.<\/p>\nVan Sante then described the pressure on construction from both costs and affordability. On the supply side, contractors face the prices charged by their material suppliers and the other expenses involved in delivering a project. On the demand side, their customers face financing costs and limits on what they can pay.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nEnergy prices connect the two. Several major construction materials require substantial energy inputs, including bricks, cement and other mineral-based products. Higher energy costs can therefore pass through the supply chain into the price of a building.<\/p>\nThe increases discussed at the conference were smaller than those experienced during the 2022 energy crisis, but they still created pressure. The uncertainty surrounding future energy prices also made it harder for contractors to price work confidently.<\/p>\nSuppliers may attempt to pass their higher production costs on to building companies. Contractors then have to decide how much of that increase can be passed on to the developer or final customer.<\/p>\nThis becomes difficult when demand is weak. A higher construction price may be commercially necessary for the contractor but unaffordable for the household or business considering the project.<\/p>\nInterest rates add to that difficulty. The period of exceptionally low borrowing costs had made it easier to finance housing and investment. Higher rates reduced the amount buyers could afford and increased the cost of holding and developing property.<\/p>\nEven where there is a clear need for more housing, the financial calculation may no longer work. A developer can face rising costs while the expected selling price fails to increase enough to preserve an acceptable margin.<\/p>\nVan Sante explained that the prices of existing homes are particularly important in this calculation. Buyers can choose between a newly built property and an existing one. The two markets therefore influence each other.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nIf new construction becomes much more expensive while existing property prices remain weak, a buyer has an alternative. That limits the price a developer can charge, regardless of the cost of delivering the new home.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nSpain had experienced strong increases in existing house prices. In the comparison presented, prices had risen by more than 30% over roughly three years.<\/p>\nThis creates an obvious affordability problem for buyers. From the perspective of new supply, however, rising prices can make additional building projects commercially viable. Developers have more room to cover construction costs if the wider property market supports a higher selling price.<\/p>\nGermany and France were in a different position. Existing house prices had provided less support, leaving developers with limited ability to recover higher building costs through the price of new properties.<\/p>\nProjects can then be delayed before construction begins. The demand for housing may still exist, but the combination of land, materials, labour and financing costs prevents the project from proceeding.<\/p>\nBuilding permits offered little evidence of a rapid and broad recovery. Van Sante described an improvement that had begun to develop towards the end of 2024 but had subsequently lost momentum.<\/p>\nPermits are useful because they provide an indication of what might be built one or two years later. Weak permit activity therefore affects the future order book of building-material suppliers, even when current construction data appear to be stabilising.<\/p>\nResidential and non-residential building volumes remained depressed. The outlook presented was for continued low activity in these parts of the sector, rather than an immediate return to strong growth.<\/p>\nInfrastructure was performing better. EU funding, investment in electricity networks and energy facilities, and spending on climate adaptation were supporting work.<\/p>\nFlood protection, the consequences of rising sea levels and the need to manage periods of drought all create additional infrastructure requirements. These projects contribute to construction activity, although their direct timber demand is often lower than that of housing or some forms of commercial building.<\/p>\nSpecialised construction occupied another position. Carpentry, installation, painting and other trades are exposed to new projects but also serve the existing building stock. Their activity can therefore be more stable than that of developers relying on new construction.<\/p>\nThis led to one of van Sante\u2019s main points: renovation is a very large market that receives less attention than its size warrants.<\/p>\nHe put renovation at around 59% of total European construction production. New buildings attract attention, but maintaining and improving what already exists accounts for a substantial part of the work available to the industry.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nFor building-material producers, that makes renovation an important market in its own right. It also changes the behaviour of the construction sector during an economic slowdown.<\/p>\nA household may postpone buying a new home if employment or income becomes uncertain. A business may defer a new office or production building. Some maintenance, however, cannot be delayed indefinitely.<\/p>\nA leaking roof still needs to be repaired. Existing buildings require upkeep even when the economy is weak. These needs provide a more consistent source of work than new development.<\/p>\nRenovation can also benefit when households decide to remain in their current homes. If moving becomes too expensive, owners may refurbish or improve the property they already have.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nVan Sante used this relationship to explain why the sector has become more stable over time. A larger renovation market reduces the dependence of total activity on the more volatile new-building cycle.<\/p>\nThe share of renovation differs between countries. Mature markets with extensive existing building stocks generally have more maintenance and refurbishment work. Countries still expanding their infrastructure and building base have a larger proportion of new construction.<\/p>\nGermany, Sweden and Belgium were among the examples of markets with a substantial renovation component. Poland, which continues to invest heavily in additional infrastructure, had a different balance.<\/p>\nThese differences also affect the type of opportunity available to suppliers. A company selling into a mature market may need to pay as much attention to repair and refurbishment as to new residential starts.<\/p>\nReturning to the country outlook, van Sante expected France to remain difficult. Political uncertainty and weak conditions in property development continued to weigh on the market.<\/p>\nGermany had better prospects for gradual improvement after four years of contraction. Infrastructure spending could provide support, while efforts to reduce the administrative burden on residential development through the Bauturbo initiative were intended to help housing construction.<\/p>\nThe effect would take time. Announcing a programme, approving a project and beginning construction are separate stages, and each introduces a delay before timber and other materials are ordered.<\/p>\nSpain remained one of the more promising growth markets discussed. Van Sante nevertheless raised concerns about measures that restrict rental returns. Such policies may be attractive when housing is scarce, but in his assessment they can reduce the incentive to invest in additional supply.<\/p>\nPoland\u2019s recent movements were influenced by the timing of EU funds. Disputes with the European Union had interrupted funding, and the restoration of access did not immediately produce completed projects.<\/p>\nConstruction takes time to respond to changes in available finance. Project preparation, approvals and procurement create a lag between the release of funds and the resulting work.<\/p>\nThe Netherlands was operating at a relatively strong level but remained constrained by its ability to deliver more. Labour availability and environmental restrictions limited the speed of expansion.<\/p>\nFor timber suppliers, van Sante\u2019s presentation described a European market with several different sources of demand and several different obstacles. Renovation offered scale and stability. Infrastructure provided growth in some countries. New housing remained the weakest part of the equation in important markets, despite the widely recognised shortage of homes.<\/p>\nRuss Taylor \u2014 Global demand: a slow recovery before tighter log supply becomes decisive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a>Russ Taylor<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nTaylor opened with a distinction between the problem the industry faces now and the problem it may face later. The present market is constrained by demand. Further ahead, access to affordable logs is likely to become a much more important limit on production.<\/p>\nHis presentation covered both logs and sawnwood because the two cannot be forecast independently. Sawmills purchase logs in response to the products they expect to sell. A decline in harvesting may therefore result from weak demand, from a reduced forest resource, or from a combination of both.<\/p>\nTaylor organised much of the analysis around five major producing and consuming blocs: Europe, the United States, Canada, China and Russia. Together, these account for roughly 80% of the activity in the markets he was examining.<\/p>\nOther countries can play important roles in individual trade flows, but developments in these large markets dominate the global balance.<\/p>\nHe first reviewed a range of published long-term forecasts. Some projected annual growth of around 2% through to 2050, while the more cautious estimates were closer to 0.5%.<\/p>\nThose studies were not all directly comparable. Some covered both hardwoods and softwoods, and their underlying assumptions differed. Taylor\u2019s purpose was to examine whether the growth rates were consistent with the industry\u2019s historical development.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nHis conclusion was that several of the projections were ambitious. The long-run increase in global softwood log activity had been much slower, at around 0.3% annually over the period he examined.<\/p>\nEven growth of half a percentage point each year would therefore require a stronger performance than much of the historical record. Higher rates would demand a significant and sustained change in consumption.<\/p>\nTaylor was particularly cautious about combining strong demand-growth assumptions with the expectation of an abundant, low-cost raw material supply. Some of the cheap logs available during earlier phases of the cycle came from forest damage and salvage operations. Those volumes cannot be treated as a permanent source of growth.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nHis base case for softwood logs allowed for some increase towards 2035, followed by a more difficult supply position thereafter.<\/p>\nThe assumptions included the continuation of major geopolitical disruptions and the effects of higher energy costs, inflation and slower economic growth. Taylor stressed that these were working assumptions used to construct a forecast.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nIf the conflicts ended sooner or economic conditions improved more quickly, the analysis would need to be revised. The difficulty was that the timing of such changes could not be predicted with confidence.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of future log supply was uneven. Taylor identified the US South as an area with potential to increase output. Japan also had room to expand, although from a smaller base.<\/p>\nChina\u2019s large plantation resource could contribute additional volume, but the quality of that resource affects the products it can supply. More wood does not automatically mean more logs of the specifications required by every part of the sawnwood industry.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia, Europe and Russia were placed among the regions facing a more difficult outlook in his assessment. The reasons varied, including insect damage, climate pressures and other limitations on the supply that could be brought economically to market.<\/p>\nOther regions, including the rest of Canada, other parts of the United States and parts of the southern hemisphere, were expected to make less dramatic changes to the overall balance.<\/p>\nThe recent decline in activity had been substantial. Taylor\u2019s comparison indicated a reduction of around 90 million m\u00b3 in global softwood log volumes between 2018 and 2025, followed by a projected recovery of only around 40 million m\u00b3 by 2035.<\/p>\nHe connected that limited recovery with the weakness of demand. Where customers are not buying enough sawnwood, mills do not need to raise log intake, and forest owners do not have the same commercial incentive to increase harvesting.<\/p>\nThe global log trade has been particularly affected by China. Its property-market contraction has reduced demand from the world\u2019s major log-importing destination and changed the outlets available to exporters.<\/p>\nTaylor expected the adjustment eventually to stabilise, but he did not anticipate a quick return to the earlier Chinese purchasing pattern. Recovery would take time.<\/p>\nIreland provided a striking example of how a disturbance can alter trade positions. Following the release of storm-damaged timber, Ireland had moved up the ranking of suppliers to China and was identified as the seventh-largest source in the figures discussed.<\/p>\nThe increase came from a low base. It illustrated how a sudden availability of wood can create an export flow that would have appeared unlikely under normal conditions.<\/p>\nTaylor then turned to Europe and examined a widely discussed question: whether the region is heading towards a substantial sawnwood shortage by 2030.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nHe referred to an analysis presented at the previous ISC that had estimated the volumes missing from the market. These included Russian and Belarusian supplies affected by sanctions, reductions in European production and the consequences of declining spruce availability.<\/p>\nThe earlier calculation identified around 26 million m\u00b3 of missing volume before allowing for additional effects associated with forest protection.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nAgainst that, it considered possible replacements. Increased pine supply could contribute around 5 million m\u00b3. Lower exports outside the EU and UK could retain another 5 million m\u00b3 within the region. Canadian imports might add around 1 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nA further 5 million m\u00b3 was included as a hypothetical contribution from Russia and Belarus if trade conditions eventually allowed it. Together, those items amounted to around 16 million m\u00b3, leaving an apparent gap of at least 10 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s response was to add the change in demand more explicitly to the calculation. European consumption had also fallen substantially from the 2021 reference point.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nHe put that decline at around 13 million m\u00b3 in the comparison used. Once this reduction was included, the projected shortage became much smaller.<\/p>\nThe exercise was intended to show how sensitive the result is to the demand baseline. Comparing future supply with consumption at a previous market peak can produce a very different answer from comparing it with the lower level of activity at which the industry is currently operating.<\/p>\nTaylor also included an illustrative allowance of 4 million m\u00b3 for the potential effect of European forest-protection measures. He described this as an assumption within the model, rather than a measured reduction already established across the market.<\/p>\nIn his base-case calculation, the additional balancing volume required was around 1.2 million m\u00b3, considerably below the 5 million m\u00b3 of hypothetical Russian and Belarusian supply included in the earlier exercise.<\/p>\nHe then tested a stronger demand scenario, using annual growth of 2.5%. Over the four years from 2026 to 2030, that would amount to an increase of roughly 10%.<\/p>\nTaylor checked how often growth of that scale had occurred in the historical series he was using. It was unusual, which was why he treated it as a high case rather than a routine expectation.<\/p>\nEven in that stronger scenario, the residual balancing requirement was around 2.6 million m\u00b3 in his calculation. Other assumptions influenced the result, but the exercise still produced a much smaller gap than the headline shortage initially implied.<\/p>\nThe Russian and Belarusian volumes in these scenarios were hypothetical balancing items. Their inclusion depended on the trade conditions assumed and did not establish that those imports would actually return.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","inLanguage":"ro-RO","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"ro-RO","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","width":2048,"height":1152,"caption":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/","name":"\u0218tiri din industria lemnului","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization","name":"\u0218tiri din industria lemnului","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"ro-RO","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/logo_color.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/logo_color.svg","width":150,"height":57,"caption":"Timber Industry News"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff","name":"GWMI Admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"ro-RO","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7e3f366983e368f37c12ad29c07423641931b311f2561bc3cb4b4eaf6f44c3cb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7e3f366983e368f37c12ad29c07423641931b311f2561bc3cb4b4eaf6f44c3cb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7e3f366983e368f37c12ad29c07423641931b311f2561bc3cb4b4eaf6f44c3cb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"GWMI Admin"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100495"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100495\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":100497,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100495\/revisions\/100497"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100496"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}](\"https:\/\/www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/23_europe_demand_base_case.jpg\"){kind=link}
![<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor then considered whether other suppliers could provide the required wood. Canada was the most obvious alternative raised in the presentation.<\/p>\nCanadian producers are looking for markets beyond the United States as trade tensions and restrictions complicate their traditional export business. Europe could provide part of that diversification.<\/p>\nThe argument was that any additional European import requirement should be examined against the wider supply options available. It need not be assigned automatically to a single source.<\/p>\nThis also connected the European outlook with developments in North America. If Canadian lumber faces greater barriers in the United States, producers have an incentive to develop other destinations. If the US market subsequently needs more imported wood, prices may have to rise enough to attract supplies from Europe or elsewhere.<\/p>\nTrade policy can therefore change both the destination of Canadian lumber and the level of prices required to bring alternative material into the United States.<\/p>\nTaylor\u2019s European calculations left him with a more cautious view of the timing of shortages. Under the demand assumptions he considered most plausible, the balance through 2030 remained heavily influenced by the limited recovery in consumption.<\/p>\nHe hoped demand would perform better than that. Stronger growth would improve the position of producers and could tighten the market more quickly. His forecast, however, was built around the slower recovery visible in the data.<\/p>\nFor global sawnwood consumption, Taylor presented a somewhat more positive growth rate than the historical trend. Long-run growth had been around 0.5% annually in the series discussed, while his projection to 2035 was approximately 0.6%.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nThat may appear modest, but small percentage changes represent substantial volumes in a global market. The important question is whether they are sufficient to absorb existing capacity and support better operating conditions.<\/p>\nBeyond 2035, Taylor expected a different balance. The reduction in accessible, low-cost logs could become more restrictive, making it harder for mills to increase production in response to demand.<\/p>\nHis concern centred on commercially available timber. Forest resources can exist without providing the required logs at a cost that allows mills to operate profitably.<\/p>\nThe recent record remained weak. Consumption had contracted through much of the previous five-year period, with only limited improvement interrupting the decline. Production had adjusted through lower operating rates, curtailments and closures.<\/p>\nInternational trade had also fallen. China\u2019s reduced log demand explained a large part of the change in that market, while weaker construction and consumption affected sawnwood flows.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","inLanguage":"ro-RO","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"ro-RO","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","width":2048,"height":1152,"caption":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/","name":"\u0218tiri din industria lemnului","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization","name":"\u0218tiri din industria lemnului","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"ro-RO","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/logo_color.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/logo_color.svg","width":150,"height":57,"caption":"Timber Industry News"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff","name":"GWMI Admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"ro-RO","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7e3f366983e368f37c12ad29c07423641931b311f2561bc3cb4b4eaf6f44c3cb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7e3f366983e368f37c12ad29c07423641931b311f2561bc3cb4b4eaf6f44c3cb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7e3f366983e368f37c12ad29c07423641931b311f2561bc3cb4b4eaf6f44c3cb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"GWMI Admin"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100495"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100495\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":100497,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100495\/revisions\/100497"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100496"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}](\"https:\/\/www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/26_global_lumber_production_growth.jpg\"){kind=link}
![<\/a><\/p>\nTaylor expected trade eventually to stabilise and then improve, but the increases in his forecast were gradual. He did not present a rapid return to the earlier export boom.<\/p>\nHe also cautioned about interpreting trade totals. A large amount of timber crosses borders within Europe, and those flows need to be distinguished from exports to distant destinations when assessing the global market.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nThe conditions for a stronger recovery were largely familiar: better consumer confidence, lower mortgage costs, less inflation and a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\nHouseholds need enough confidence in their finances to buy or build homes. Developers need projects to be profitable. Improvements in those conditions would support construction activity and the demand for timber.<\/p>\nThe industry has already removed some supply in response to the weak market. Curtailments and closures reduce output and can help restore balance when orders eventually recover.<\/p>\nAt the same time, tighter log availability may limit the speed at which production can return. That combination could support higher sawnwood prices in a stronger market.<\/p>\nTaylor was more hopeful about conditions around 2028, while remaining cautious about the timing. The sector had repeatedly entered a year expecting a flat first half followed by improvement, only to see the second half disappoint.<\/p>\nHe ended with the expectation that better prices would eventually emerge as demand and supply came into closer balance. However, higher log prices could accompany that recovery, so improved selling prices would not necessarily translate fully into higher sawmill margins.<\/p>\nFlorian Kraxner \u2014 Forests, timber buildings and the case for long-term carbon storage<\/em><\/h4>\nDr Florian Kraxner, principal research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, presented the forestry\u2013construction pump: a proposed system linking forest growth, timber use and long-term carbon storage in buildings.<\/em><\/p>\nKraxner broadened the discussion from the current timber cycle to the longer-term relationship between forests, climate and the built environment.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nHe introduced IIASA as an international research institution established to address problems that are too large for one country to solve alone. Its origins in scientific cooperation during the Cold War were relevant to the kind of work he described: bringing together expertise and countries that may find it difficult to agree through conventional political channels.<\/p>\nThe institute\u2019s research spans forests, agriculture, energy, population and other systems that affect one another. Kraxner argued that this breadth is necessary when assessing timber construction as a climate response.<\/p>\nIncreasing the use of wood in buildings raises questions about forest growth, harvesting, carbon accounting, biodiversity, industrial processing, housing demand and regulation. Each part influences the others.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nHe began with the pressure from climate change itself. Repeated periods of extreme heat and other disturbances are already affecting natural systems, and forests are exposed to the same changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his assessment, the response now needs to combine rapid reductions in emissions with the removal of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. Reducing future emissions alone would not be sufficient to achieve the climate pathway he described.<\/p>\nCarbon dioxide removal was therefore central to the presentation. Forests already absorb carbon through growth, but the duration of storage and the risks affecting that carbon need to be considered.<\/p>\nKraxner connected this with the scale of future building demand. Much of the housing and infrastructure expected to exist by the middle of the century has yet to be built. At the same time, billions of people lack adequate housing.<\/p>\nMeeting those needs will require large quantities of materials. The emissions associated with producing and using those materials will influence the climate consequences of urban growth.<\/p>\nHis argument was that timber construction could help turn part of the built environment into a long-term carbon store. Trees absorb carbon while growing, wood is processed into building products, and those products can retain the carbon during their service life.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nThe forestry\u2013construction pump describes that movement: carbon is taken from the atmosphere through forest growth and transferred into products intended to remain in use for a long time.<\/p>\nThe effectiveness of the system depends on how each stage is managed. Forests must continue to grow and regenerate, harvesting and processing must be considered, and the carbon stored in buildings needs to remain there for a sufficiently long period.<\/p>\nKraxner placed considerable emphasis on the end of a building\u2019s first use. Timber components that can be recovered and reused offer a different storage pathway from material that is quickly burned or otherwise releases its carbon.<\/p>\nHe argued for greater attention to reuse. Keeping a structural element in service through successive applications can extend the period during which its carbon remains stored.<\/p>\nRecycling remains part of the system, but it does not necessarily preserve the same product or the same storage duration. The aim described was to retain useful material for as long as possible before moving to uses with shorter lifetimes.<\/p>\nUnder suitable conditions, Kraxner discussed storage extending over several centuries. This was a long-term design ambition involving durable buildings and repeated use of their components.<\/p>\nSuch a perspective introduces a different timescale from the one used in ordinary market forecasts. A business may assess investments over a period of several decades. Forest growth and climate outcomes can extend much further.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that both need to be considered. Decisions made over the next 20 or 30 years will influence what forests can supply and how much carbon the building stock can retain later in the century.<\/p>\nThe presentation also challenged the idea that protecting forests always means avoiding intervention. Kraxner argued that some vulnerable stands require active management if they are to adapt to changing conditions.<\/p>\nIn his view, leaving exposed forests untouched can carry substantial risks. Trees may be lost to insects, drought or fire before the expected ecological or carbon benefits are secured.<\/p>\nHe connected this directly to the earlier discussion of Central European spruce. Changing the forest resource requires space for regeneration and replacement species, and that can involve removing trees before they are damaged.<\/p>\nThe harvested wood then needs useful markets. Timber construction could provide an outlet capable of retaining carbon in products while the forest is regenerated or adapted.<\/p>\nKraxner acknowledged that this argument is not widely understood outside the sector. Public discussion often treats tree harvesting and environmental protection as opposing actions.<\/p>\nHe said the industry and scientific community need to explain more clearly when active management can support forest adaptation, and to substantiate those claims with evidence.<\/p>\nThat need for evidence was part of the rationale for the Science and Timber Construction Alliance, or SITCA. Launched on 1 July 2026 under the leadership of IIASA director general Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the alliance brings scientific research together with organisations involved in forestry and construction. Its founding partners include IIASA, Hilti, WIEHAG, binderholz, EGGER, Stora Enso and the Austrian Federal Forests.<\/p>\nKraxner described SITCA as a platform intended to connect research, industry, policy, architecture and civil society. Its purpose is to establish the conditions under which timber construction can expand and deliver the benefits claimed for it.<\/p>\nHe stressed the importance of involving environmental organisations. A credible assessment needs to address concerns about forests and biodiversity directly and allow different interests to examine the same evidence.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nThe alliance\u2019s work was organised around four broad questions.<\/p>\nThe first concerned wood availability. How much timber could be supplied sustainably, from which forests, and over what period? What would additional demand mean for existing users of wood and for the forest resource itself?<\/p>\nThe second concerned carbon accounting. Climate benefits need to be measured consistently across forests, processing and buildings. Long-term storage in a product cannot be assessed in isolation from the conditions under which the wood was produced.<\/p>\nThe third concerned competitiveness. Timber construction needs to function commercially, including its costs, technical performance and the ability of supply chains to deliver at scale.<\/p>\nThe fourth concerned the institutional framework. Regulation, standards, certification, procurement and other policy decisions influence whether timber systems can be used and whether their climate performance is recognised. These are also the four research areas identified in SITCA\u2019s scientific programme.<\/p>\nKraxner presented the initiative as an effort to combine these questions within one research programme. Industry needs answers that can inform investment, while policymakers need evidence that can support decisions across several competing objectives.<\/p>\nIIASA\u2019s international structure was intended to help. The institute can draw on expertise in energy, land use, agriculture and population alongside forestry, rather than treating each subject as a separate problem.<\/p>\nThe work would also depend on collaboration with researchers elsewhere. Kraxner described a wider network of scientific partners, financing partners and associated organisations, with the ambition to expand beyond the initial Austrian base.<\/p>\nThe global forest resource was another part of the discussion. Kraxner considered the contribution of plantations, restoration and changes in forest density.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nHe argued that future production systems should pay greater attention to ecological functions and the range of benefits expected from land. A simple expansion of isolated monocultures would not answer all the questions associated with a much larger timber economy.<\/p>\nThe presentation explored the possibility of increasing tree cover or restoring degraded landscapes in suitable locations. These opportunities would need to be assessed alongside climate risks, existing land uses and other demands on the landscape.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nOne illustrative calculation considered roughly 500 billion additional trees and the possibility of supplying timber for around two billion housing units over a long period.<\/p>\nKraxner presented these figures as part of an ambitious global scenario. Realising it would require extensive work on where trees could grow, how they would be managed, what material they could produce and how that material would reach construction markets.<\/p>\nHe also referred to restoration in China\u2019s Loess Plateau. The example concerned the recovery of degraded landscapes and the reduction of erosion, rather than a project originally designed around timber construction.<\/p>\nIts relevance was the scale of change that coordinated land management could achieve. Similar ambition would be needed if forests were to contribute substantially to both housing provision and long-term carbon storage.<\/p>\nClimate risks could undermine those efforts. Kraxner\u2019s maps and modelling examples showed how large areas of forest are exposed to disturbances and how that exposure may develop.<\/p>\nFire was a particular concern. Areas that have not traditionally been regarded as major fire regions may face greater risk, including parts of northern Europe and the UK.<\/p>\nDrying in tropical forests was another example. Forests normally associated with high moisture can become more vulnerable when drought changes their condition. The resulting fires release carbon and can create further pressure on the climate.<\/p>\nTree-species suitability also needs to be reconsidered. Kraxner presented modelling exercises from the Alps in which the conditions supporting established conifers changed substantially over time.<\/p>\nSpecies that initially appear to offer an alternative can also become vulnerable. The answer is therefore unlikely to be a simple replacement of one dominant tree with another across a large area.<\/p>\nHe extended this point to broadleaved trees. Beech is often mentioned in discussions of replacing spruce, but the modelling examples presented for Germany also showed difficulties for beech under future conditions.<\/p>\nMoving towards more hardwoods may be part of forest adaptation, but it does not remove the need to examine the response of each species to drought, heat and local site conditions.<\/p>\nThe industrial consequences develop over decades. Sawmills and manufacturers need to consider what they will be able to process as the forest changes, including species that are less important in their current product range.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →","og_url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","og_site_name":"Timber Industry News","article_published_time":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2048,"height":1152,"url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"GWMI Admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"GWMI Admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"47 de minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"author":{"name":"GWMI Admin","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff"},"headline":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow","datePublished":"2026-11-03T04:20:45+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-03T21:39:49+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/"},"wordCount":9417,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow.jpg","articleSection":["Daily News"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","url":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/","name":"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nKraxner argued that this preparation should already be under way. Equipment, product development and construction systems take time to change, just as forests take time to grow.<\/p>\nHe ended by returning to the social purpose of the work. The objective was to combine climate action with the provision of adequate, affordable housing.<\/p>\nTimber construction would need to become available at a scale and cost that could contribute to that need. Scientific credibility, industrial capability and workable policy would all be necessary.<\/p>\nSITCA\u2019s role, as he described it, was to provide a common basis for those decisions and to connect existing initiatives. He referred to organisations already working on timber construction and sustainable wood use, arguing that a stronger shared research foundation could help their efforts develop together.<\/p>\nQuestions from the floor:\u00a0 How much bark beetle timber could become available after the hot summer?<\/em><\/h4>\nThe first question connected the immediate procurement outlook with the weather conditions discussed during the presentations. A delegate asked how the warm summer might affect the availability of bark beetle-damaged logs in the following year.<\/p>\nThe response was cautious. The summer alone was not enough to determine the scale of future damage. Winter conditions, snow cover, rainfall and the development of the following spring would all influence the outcome.<\/p>\nA dry and warm sequence could increase stress in the forests and create conditions for further damage. Better moisture availability and more moderate weather could produce a different result.<\/p>\nThe response indicated that a clearer assessment might only be possible by May or June. For mills, this meant that potential salvage supply could not yet be treated as a dependable part of the next year\u2019s procurement plan.<\/p>\nWhere could hardwoods replace softwoods?<\/strong><\/p>\nThe same intervention asked where hardwoods might provide an alternative to the softwood resource discussed during the session.<\/p>\nThe answer returned to the need for a more varied forest composition. Different species have different problems, and their suitability depends on the sites where they are grown.<\/p>\nExamples from Germany were used to describe the introduction of a broader range of species, including planting approaches involving seven or more species. Part of that diversity provides an opportunity to test which trees can perform under the conditions developing at a particular site.<\/p>\nThe response did not identify one hardwood capable of replacing spruce across all its present uses. The direction described involved a combination of forest adaptation, testing and the development of industrial applications for a more varied resource.<\/p>\nThis also left a task for processors. As species composition changes, the industry will need to determine which products can be made efficiently from the wood available and where those products can be sold.<\/p>\nWill the shift from spruce towards pine continue?<\/strong><\/p>\nA follow-up question referred to the increase in pine harvesting and the decline in spruce presented earlier in the session. The delegate asked whether this pattern was likely to continue over the next few years.<\/p>\nThe response was that a continued shift was expected. The changing resource would give pine a larger role in some regions as spruce availability declined.<\/p>\nThe discussion also retained the earlier qualification that pine has its own exposure to climate stress. Its greater relative importance does not remove the need to monitor the condition of the resource or develop a wider mix of species and products.<\/p>\nHow long will it take to reduce Europe\u2019s housing shortage?<\/strong><\/p>\nA representative of the Spanish delegation asked Maurice van Sante about the growing gap between housing needs and the number of homes being built.<\/p>\nThe question extended beyond Spain. Van Sante referred to shortages in several European cities and regions, including Stockholm, Berlin and Amsterdam, as well as Mediterranean markets.<\/p>\nYounger households face particular difficulties. High costs and limited availability can delay the age at which people leave the parental home or obtain housing independently.<\/p>\nThe discussion acknowledged that the shortage cannot be resolved quickly. Building additional homes requires societies to reconcile demand for development with environmental, sustainability and other planning objectives.<\/p>\nVan Sante did not offer a short timetable for eliminating the gap. His assessment was that progress was possible over the longer term, while the immediate adjustment would remain slow and difficult.<\/p>\nWhat should sawmills invest in as the forests change?<\/strong><\/p>\nSilvia Melegari of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry asked the final substantive question. She drew together two themes that had run through the session: a possible reduction in suitable raw material and the ambition to build more with wood.<\/p>\nIf the forest resource is changing while the industry is being encouraged to expand its role in construction, what should sawmills do? Which investments would help processors adapt, and what changes were required in forest management?<\/p>\nKraxner began with the forest. He argued that the move towards stands better suited to future climatic conditions needed to start actively.<\/p>\nThat could require removing existing trees to create space for regeneration and new species. Waiting until vulnerable stands were damaged could reduce the options available and lose valuable time.<\/p>\nHe described two complementary approaches to selecting species. One involved planting a varied mix and learning from performance on the ground. The other used modelling to narrow the choices and identify likely problems earlier.<\/p>\nTrial and error has a cost. If several of the species planted fail after years of growth, the forest owner loses both money and time. Models cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can help avoid some unsuitable choices.<\/p>\nThe industry must also prepare for irregular supply. Active conversion and forest disturbances can bring substantial quantities of wood to market over a short period. Those increases may be followed by years with lower availability.<\/p>\nKraxner argued that processors need to become more comfortable planning for this variation. A constant flow of the same species and dimensions may become a less reliable assumption.<\/p>\nShorter rotations were part of that discussion. He referred to the possibility of spruce rotations of around 30 years under some future management approaches, producing much smaller dimensions than the industry commonly associates with mature spruce.<\/p>\nThis would require sawmills and downstream manufacturers to consider the equipment, recovery rates and products suited to that material.<\/p>\nSpruce would remain an important objective because of its value as an industrial and construction species. The argument was that maintaining its role would require different management and a more adaptable processing industry.<\/p>\nClosing the conference: a handover at ETTF and an invitation to Sweden<\/strong><\/p>\nPaul Brannen, conference moderator; Morten Bergsten, ETTF softwood chair; Tommi Sneck, EOS president; and Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren, director of Swedish Wood.<\/em><\/p>\nPaul Brannen closed the formal conference by thanking the sponsors, speakers, event staff and participants. He acknowledged the hotel team, the external staff responsible for technical support and the local organising team led by Gerry McGovern.<\/p>\nHe described the audience as the largest gathering of ISC delegates in recent memory.<\/p>\nBrannen also encouraged participants to act on what they had heard. The value of the conference, he said, would depend partly on whether delegates took the information and ideas back into their businesses and organisations.<\/p>\nMany would have made notes during the day about decisions to reconsider, people to contact or work to begin. Following through on those actions would turn the conference\u2019s discussions into something useful for the individual companies and for the sector.<\/p>\nMorten Bergsten then marked a personal handover. Dublin was his final ISC as an organiser after seven years and six conferences.<\/p>\nHe explained that he had informed the ETTF leadership earlier in the year that it was time to bring a new person onto the board. Stefano Ghinassi was introduced to the audience as his intended successor, with the formal transition expected around the meetings following the conference. Bergsten\u2019s planned departure and Ghinassi\u2019s candidacy had also been recorded at the ETTF general assembly in June.<\/p>\nBergsten thanked the federation\u2019s members for the opportunity to work on their behalf. He also acknowledged his board colleagues and the cooperation with EOS, including the work of Silvia Melegari and Diego Benedetti.<\/p>\nHe gave particular thanks to Brannen for moderating the day and keeping the programme moving.<\/p>\nTommi Sneck, president of EOS, thanked Bergsten for the collaboration between the two organisations. He noted that the conference is organised jointly by EOS and ETTF, with responsibility alternating between the partners.<\/p>\nAttention then turned to the next edition. Anna Ryberg \u00c5gren welcomed delegates to Sweden on behalf of Swedish Wood and announced Gothenburg as the host city for ISC 2027.<\/p>\nShe acknowledged the standard set by the Dublin event and said that Swedish Wood, its team and its members were pleased to take on the next conference.<\/p>\nImages of buildings in and around Gothenburg accompanied the invitation. The handover connected the next meeting with one of the final session\u2019s central subjects: the development of markets for timber in construction and the industry\u2019s ability to supply them.<\/p>\nThe formal programme ended, with delegates continuing their discussions at the evening gala dinner.<\/p>\nGWMI\u2019s closing note<\/strong><\/p>\nWith this fourth report, GWMI completes its detailed coverage of the International Softwood Conference 2026 in Dublin.<\/p>\nAcross the four parts, the conference examined European production and consumption, the North American market, Irish and UK developments, Russia\u2019s changing export position, Japan\u2019s purchasing requirements, MENA trade, construction activity and the future forest resource.<\/p>\nThe final session brought those discussions together. Sawmills need a recovery in demand, but they also need logs they can afford to process. Construction markets need more homes, but projects must be financially viable. A larger role for timber will require forests, processing capacity and building systems to develop together.<\/p>\nThe work described in Dublin extends from the next procurement contract to investments whose consequences will last for decades. It includes finding outlets for today\u2019s production, preparing for different species and dimensions, and making better use of the timber already available.<\/p>\nGWMI thanks the organisers, speakers and participants for the discussions and information shared throughout the conference, and its readers for following this four-part report from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. The final session of the International Softwood Conference examined the changing supply of Central European logs, the uneven outlook for European building … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/isc-2026-part-4-weak-demand-today-tighter-wood-supply-tomorrow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ISC 2026- Part 4: Weak demand today, tighter wood supply tomorrow - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s sawmills are waiting for construction demand to recover while preparing for a more difficult raw material market. 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