{"id":100458,"date":"2026-10-30T07:31:30","date_gmt":"2026-10-30T07:31:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=100458"},"modified":"2026-10-30T21:20:01","modified_gmt":"2026-10-30T21:20:01","slug":"gwmi-at-isc-2026-part-2-north-american-irish-and-uk-market-perspectives","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/gwmi-at-isc-2026-part-2-north-american-irish-and-uk-market-perspectives\/","title":{"rendered":"GWMI at ISC 2026, Part 2: North American, Irish and UK market perspectives"},"content":{"rendered":"

GWMI reporting from the Grand Hotel, Malahide, Dublin | International Softwood Conference, 29 October 2026<\/em><\/p>\n

\n
\n

US producers are reassessing long-term housing demand, Canada is trying to stop its processing industry from shrinking, and Ireland faces a growing gap between timber construction ambitions and forest planting. In the UK, softwood consumption is forecast to fall by 3% in 2026, with only a 0.5% recovery in 2027.<\/p>\n<\/header>\n

\n

Europe\u2019s slow construction recovery dominated the opening session of the International Softwood Conference. The next four presentations took the discussion across the Atlantic and back to Ireland and the United Kingdom, examining whether the markets on which sawmills depend can deliver enough demand to support their existing capacity.<\/p>\n

In this second part of GWMI\u2019s coverage from Dublin, the immediate difficulties of selling timber were set against changes that will take much longer to work through: slower population growth in the United States, a shrinking Canadian processing industry, inadequate planting in Ireland and a British housing market that continues to fall short of expectations.<\/p>\n

The session brought together Marc Brinkmeyer, owner and chairman of Idaho Forest Group; J\u00e9r\u00f4me Pelletier, vice president of the Sawmills Division at J.D. Irving; Mike Glennon, joint managing director of Glennon Brothers; and Stephen King, UK project manager for Swedish Wood. Their presentations covered the United States, Canada, Ireland and UK imports, respectively.<\/p>\n

There was no single explanation for the difficulties described. In the United States, housing affordability and demographic change were central to Brinkmeyer\u2019s assessment. In Canada, Pelletier questioned whether the industry could stop contracting as access to fibre became more difficult and outlets for sawmill residues disappeared. Glennon described an Irish processing sector with substantial investment behind it but growing concerns about the forests that will supply it. King reported a British market still moving considerable volumes of timber, despite weaker construction and financial strain along the supply chain.<\/p>\n

One issue connected the North American presentations particularly closely. Sawmills need buyers for the whole output of a log, including chips, sawdust and other residues. The closure of pulp and paper capacity is weakening those markets, reducing income and, in some locations, making it difficult to keep mills operating at all.<\/p>\n

Housing supplied another connection. Governments want more homes, and timber businesses see opportunities in greater use of wood. Yet the number of homes that can actually be financed and built remains constrained by household incomes, construction costs, labour availability and planning. Even where timber frame is gaining market share, that progress is taking place within a subdued building market.<\/p>\n

Marc Brinkmeyer \u2014 A longer view of US lumber demand<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
\n

Owner and chairman, Idaho Forest Group<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a>
Marc Brinkmeyer<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Marc Brinkmeyer opened with a deliberate change of timescale. The short-term position of the US lumber industry offered relatively little encouragement, he said. His interest was in the longer view: the demand that today\u2019s investments will have to serve, and the business that the next generation will inherit.<\/p>\n

Idaho Forest Group has approximately 1.5 billion board feet of annual capacity and was operating at around 90% of capacity at the time of the conference, according to Brinkmeyer. His assessment combined the experience of running sawmills in the US West and South with concerns about housing affordability, population growth and the economics of using every part of the tree.<\/p>\n

Housing affordability restricts both purchases and mobility<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brinkmeyer described a housing market in which the cost of ownership has moved beyond the reach of many potential buyers. The affordability slide in his presentation put the income burden of owning the median home at approximately 44%, alongside a mortgage rate of around 7.4%.<\/p>\n

He also pointed to the cumulative increase in house prices and the rise in borrowing costs. In the comparison he presented, home prices had increased by around 60%, while mortgage rates had more than doubled. These changes could not be reversed quickly through a modest improvement in confidence or a small adjustment in interest rates.<\/p>\n

Existing homeowners face a different calculation. Brinkmeyer said approximately 78% of outstanding mortgages carried rates below 6%. For those households, selling a property and buying another can mean surrendering a relatively inexpensive loan and replacing it with much more costly borrowing.<\/p>\n

That discourages transactions even when owners might otherwise want to move. It also limits the supply of existing homes coming onto the market. A household can have substantial equity in its property and still find that moving would make its monthly finances materially worse.<\/p>\n

For lumber producers, the result is a housing market that cannot be understood solely through estimates of a national shortage. The need for accommodation does not automatically become an order for a new house. Buyers must be able to afford the property and its financing, while builders must be able to deliver it at a viable cost.<\/p>\n

Brinkmeyer\u2019s housing-starts chart placed the long-term average at about 1.43 million units a year. Recent activity had been below that level. He recalled the collapse following the mid-2000s housing boom, when starts fell to approximately half a million units in 2009, but his concern was that the present market also faces obstacles extending beyond the normal construction cycle.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Labour and development costs make new homes harder to deliver<\/strong><\/p>\n

Construction labour was one of those obstacles. Brinkmeyer said changes in immigration were affecting the availability of workers, including framing crews. The consequences extend beyond the number of people employed: a shortage of experienced tradespeople can delay projects and increase the cost of each completed home.<\/p>\n

He also questioned the industry\u2019s productivity. In the comparison he cited, the number of homes constructed per worker had fallen from around two a year to approximately 1.34. He presented that decline as evidence that the building process was becoming less efficient at precisely the time when affordability required improvement.<\/p>\n

The cost of preparing a site adds to the difficulty before framing begins. Brinkmeyer referred to local charges, development fees and permitting requirements, citing an example of around $30,000 in fees in California. Such costs must ultimately be recovered through the sale price of the home.<\/p>\n

His argument was that more affordable lumber alone would not resolve the affordability problem. Land development, approvals, labour productivity and financing all affect the final price paid by the buyer. The timber industry has an interest in changes to the wider construction process because those costs determine how much housing can be built.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The problem was also immediate for IFG as an employer. Brinkmeyer said the company was working on a housing project in northern Idaho because its employees could not afford to buy homes locally. Progress had been difficult. He described access to shelter as a responsibility that the next generation of the business would have to confront alongside production efficiency and fibre supply.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cOur employees cannot afford to buy a house in North Idaho.\u201d<\/p>\n

Marc Brinkmeyer, Idaho Forest Group<\/cite><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Demographic change could reduce future household formation<\/strong><\/p>\n

The most consequential part of Brinkmeyer\u2019s presentation concerned population growth.<\/p>\n

He cited a US fertility rate of approximately 1.57 children per woman, below the replacement level of around 2.1. Immigration had previously helped compensate for that gap. With immigration falling sharply, the figure in his presentation put population growth at approximately 0.24%.<\/p>\n

His concern was the cumulative effect on household formation. A country adding fewer people will, over time, require fewer additional households, although the timing also depends on age structure, migration and living arrangements.<\/p>\n

Brinkmeyer referred to projections in which deaths would exceed births around 2030, as the ageing of the baby-boomer generation becomes more pronounced. He also discussed estimates that this demographic transition could release between 200,000 and 300,000 homes a year onto the market.<\/p>\n

Those properties would not necessarily be located where demand is strongest, nor would every home be immediately suitable for a new buyer. Nevertheless, his argument was that the existing housing stock would play a larger role in meeting demand as population growth weakened.<\/p>\n

He placed particular emphasis on the period from 2035 to 2045. Sawmill investments made today can still be operating in that period, making the demographic outlook relevant to present decisions about capacity.<\/p>\n

The forecasts he discussed differed in their assumptions and in the extent of the reduction they anticipated. Brinkmeyer nevertheless regarded their direction as sufficiently serious to challenge expectations of continuing expansion in US lumber demand. He illustrated the potential scale by referring to the equivalent of roughly 50 sawmills with annual production of 150 million board feet each.<\/p>\n

That was a long-term scenario, rather than an announcement of imminent closures. His warning was that an industry built around previous rates of household growth could eventually have more capacity than the market requires.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Repair and remodelling offers a more durable source of demand<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brinkmeyer was more positive about repair and remodelling.<\/p>\n

The US housing stock is ageing, creating a continuing need for maintenance, replacement and improvement. Meanwhile, owners who retain low-rate mortgages have an incentive to improve their existing properties rather than move.<\/p>\n

That gives the same mortgage conditions two different effects. They restrict housing transactions but can encourage spending on the homes people already occupy.<\/p>\n

Brinkmeyer said repair and remodelling accounted for approximately 39% in the lumber end-use breakdown he presented. He also described the importance of retailers such as Home Depot, Lowe\u2019s and Menards, including their role in supplying smaller builders and contractors.<\/p>\n

For producers serving appearance-grade and related markets, he regarded this as an attractive part of the business. Demand is spread across a large existing stock of properties and is less dependent on the number of entirely new households being formed.<\/p>\n

He used the financial crisis to illustrate the difference in behaviour between new construction and renovation. Both markets weakened, but the contraction in new housing was substantially more severe. That experience supported his view that repair and remodelling deserves considerable weight in a long-term market strategy.<\/p>\n

He did not argue that renovation would necessarily replace every unit of demand lost from new construction. Rather, it offered a more dependable source of activity within a housing market whose demographic foundations are changing.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Government borrowing and data centres compete for capital<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brinkmeyer also examined the financial environment in which housing must compete.<\/p>\n

His presentation put US government debt at approximately 126% of GDP. He linked the scale of federal borrowing to pressure on capital markets and the cost of financing private investment.<\/p>\n

He contrasted spending associated with data centres, federal borrowing and new housing. The figures he cited included approximately $750 billion going into data centres, federal borrowing exceeding $2 trillion and around $510 billion associated with new housing.<\/p>\n

The comparison formed part of his argument that housing faces substantial competition for finance. Strong demand for capital elsewhere in the economy does not make it easier for households and builders to obtain inexpensive borrowing.<\/p>\n

He also discussed the growing burden of interest payments on the public finances. His concern was the direction of debt relative to economic output and the possibility that servicing it would absorb an increasing share of available resources.<\/p>\n

Energy prices added another source of pressure. Higher oil prices can sustain inflation and complicate efforts to reduce borrowing costs. For the timber industry, those effects arrive both through operating expenses and through the financing conditions faced by customers.<\/p>\n

The shift to the US South brings a different fibre model<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brinkmeyer described a major change in the geography of North American lumber production.<\/p>\n

Around the start of the century, he said, production had been divided much more evenly between Canada, the western United States and the US South. Since then, the South has assumed a larger role, supported by plantation pine resources stretching from Texas to the Carolinas.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

For IFG, the attraction is partly the security and productivity of that resource. Southern plantation forestry offers a different operating environment from western forests, where access to federal timberland, wildfire and forest-health problems complicate procurement.<\/p>\n

He described a typical plantation regime beginning with approximately 500 stems per acre, followed by thinning around years 11 and 17 and final harvesting around year 27. The details vary between sites, but the example explained the importance of intermediate harvests to the economics of the plantation.<\/p>\n

Those thinnings depend heavily on markets for smaller-diameter and lower-grade wood. When those markets disappear, the effect extends beyond the sawmill to the landowner\u2019s return and the management of the next crop.<\/a><\/p>\n

Residue markets are becoming an operating constraint<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brinkmeyer\u2019s account of the southern resource led directly to one of the session\u2019s strongest warnings: plentiful trees do not guarantee an economically balanced forest-products industry.<\/p>\n

The first thinning of a plantation may produce material suitable almost entirely for pulp or chips. If there is no buyer, the revenue can be insufficient to cover harvesting and transport. He described situations in which owners were eliminating unwanted stems without recovering them commercially.<\/p>\n

Later thinnings can yield some sawmill material, but much of the volume still needs a pulpwood outlet. The loss of pulp and paper capacity therefore affects the entire production sequence, from plantation management to the disposal of sawmill residues.<\/p>\n

Brinkmeyer said sawdust was accumulating in parts of Oregon and that material was being sent to landfill in Mississippi. In some arrangements, the objective had become simply to have residues removed, with the receiving party paying freight.<\/p>\n

That represents a substantial change from a business model in which chips and sawdust contribute revenue. Once removal becomes the priority, a mill loses income and may face storage, handling or disposal costs. If material cannot leave the site, the problem can constrain lumber production.<\/p>\n

He contrasted the US situation with European energy markets. Plentiful, relatively inexpensive natural gas limits the competitiveness of wood residues as a source of heat in much of the United States. An outlet that works economically in one European location may therefore not be transferable to a US mill.<\/p>\n

At IFG\u2019s Lumberton operation, he said, approximately 160 truckloads of logs arrive each day and around 30 loads of residues leave. Any alternative market must be able to handle that scale continuously.<\/p>\n

New uses must absorb industrial volumes<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brinkmeyer said IFG began a research and development effort in 2020 after recognising the direction of the residue problem.<\/p>\n

The company has been examining biofuels, biochar, cellulose-based applications and other uses for wood fibre, including work with universities. He saw promise in several technologies but made clear that the development work had not yet produced a complete answer.<\/p>\n

Scale was central to his assessment. A technically interesting product is not sufficient if its market can absorb only a small fraction of a mill\u2019s daily output. The process must also be reliable and commercially viable.<\/p>\n

His longer-term priorities included greater use of technology, possible applications of artificial intelligence, improvements in forest productivity and genetics, and secure access to fibre. Alongside those, he argued for closer attention to demographic trends and to the value of the whole tree.<\/p>\n

The objective was to build a business capable of passing to the next generation without assuming that the markets supporting today\u2019s sawmills will remain unchanged.<\/p>\n

J\u00e9r\u00f4me Pelletier \u2014 Canada\u2019s priority is to stop the contraction<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/section>\n
\n

Vice president, Sawmills Division, J.D. Irving, Limited<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a>
J\u00e9r\u00f4me Pelletier<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

J\u00e9r\u00f4me Pelletier\u2019s Canadian assessment was cautiously optimistic, but the ambition behind that optimism was limited. He saw possible ways to stabilise the industry. He did not present a case for a substantial expansion in Canadian lumber production.<\/p>\n

J.D. Irving produces approximately 1.3 billion board feet annually across sawmills in eastern Canada and Maine, according to Pelletier. Its integration with forestry, pulp, paper, tissue and transport provides outlets and logistics that many independent sawmills cannot replicate.<\/p>\n

That integration was relevant to the problems he described. Canada\u2019s sawmill sector is being affected simultaneously by access to logs, wildfire and insect damage, shrinking pulp and paper markets and uncertainty over trade with the United States.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t think that there\u2019s opportunities for the Canadian industry to grow at this point.\u201d J\u00e9r\u00f4me Pelletier, J.D. Irving<\/cite><\/p>\n

Fibre availability varies sharply between regions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pelletier warned against treating Canada as a single fibre market.<\/p>\n

In the Atlantic provinces, he said, forest ownership is divided broadly between private owners and publicly owned provincial forests. In the larger producing provinces farther west, including Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia, the proportion of Crown land is much higher.<\/p>\n

Those ownership structures affect the industry\u2019s exposure to changes in public policy. Where most commercial timber comes from provincial land, changes in harvesting rules, land-use decisions and allowable cuts can have a major effect on mill procurement.<\/p>\n

Pelletier said access had become more difficult in several regions. He linked part of the reduction in production to policies that restrict the area available for industrial harvesting or change the conditions under which it can be managed.<\/p>\n

Biological damage has also reduced the resource. He recalled the effects of bark-beetle outbreaks in British Columbia and Alberta, which changed the inventory of merchantable timber and contributed to lower allowable cuts.<\/p>\n

In eastern Canada, he identified spruce budworm as a major current concern, particularly in Quebec. He cited approximately 13 million hectares affected, drawing on the Natural Resources Canada figures used in his presentation.<\/p>\n

For sawmills, these problems can increase procurement costs well before a region runs out of trees in any absolute sense. The commercial question is whether suitable logs can be accessed, harvested and transported at a price the mill can support.<\/p>\n

<\/a>
\nWildfire losses will affect future harvesting<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pelletier\u2019s wildfire chart showed a sharp deterioration from the conditions that prevailed before 2023.<\/p>\n

He said the area burned in Canada had generally remained below five million hectares a year in the earlier period shown. More recent fire seasons had affected much larger areas, with drought contributing to the change.<\/p>\n

For 2026, he reported that the burned area had already exceeded five million hectares, while stressing that final figures were not yet available.<\/p>\n

His concern extended to the effect on future harvesting. Damage to the forest inventory can lead to further reductions in allowable cuts, particularly where fires have affected commercially important forests.<\/p>\n

He also argued that forest management and the accumulation of combustible material should be part of the discussion. In his assessment, ageing and overmature stands in some protected areas contribute to fire exposure. This was presented as his view of the relationship between land management and risk, rather than as a single explanation for Canada\u2019s recent fire seasons.<\/p>\n

The practical implication for producers was a less predictable supply base. Salvage harvesting can provide material for a period, but it does not remove the longer-term loss of standing timber.<\/p>\n

Housing needs are substantial, but construction remains uneven<\/strong><\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s demographic position differed from the US outlook presented by Brinkmeyer.<\/p>\n

Pelletier said the Canadian population had increased by around 10% between 2020 and 2026, with particularly strong growth in 2023 and 2024. That expansion had supported a substantial need for additional housing.<\/p>\n

He put recent housing starts at approximately 240,000\u2013250,000 units annually. Nevertheless, the existence of national housing demand did not guarantee that every local market could absorb the properties being built.<\/p>\n

He described high construction costs, labour shortages and an accumulation of available or unoccupied units in some urban markets, including Toronto and Vancouver. The location, type and affordability of housing all affect whether it meets the needs of potential occupants.<\/p>\n

That helps explain why a country can have a major housing requirement while also facing weaker starts. Pelletier referred to a Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation outlook in which housing starts decline in 2027.<\/p>\n

He also discussed the federal ambition to double housing construction over five years. He welcomed the objective but questioned whether producers could confidently base their plans on its full delivery.<\/p>\n

Tax measures, investment in construction automation and policies that improve the economics of new building could support demand, he said. The effect would depend on implementation and on whether those measures translate into completed projects.<\/p>\n

Renovation could support domestic lumber consumption<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pelletier saw a more encouraging position in repair and remodelling.<\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s existing housing stock is ageing, while many long-standing homeowners have accumulated substantial equity. That can provide both a reason to undertake renovations and a means of financing them.<\/p>\n

He said renovation expenditure had fallen after the pandemic surge, but believed the underlying conditions could support a recovery or at least help sustain spending.<\/p>\n

Borrowing costs remained important. Pelletier warned that renewed energy inflation could erode the benefit of the easier financing conditions households had experienced. He also discussed the exchange rate: a stronger Canadian dollar would make exports more difficult for producers selling into foreign-currency markets.<\/p>\n

Taking the different end uses together, he expected Canadian domestic lumber consumption to remain in a range of approximately 7.5\u20138 billion board feet. That view allowed for weaker new housing and stronger repair and remodelling, while assuming that industrial demand remained reasonably stable.<\/p>\n

It was an outlook for continuity rather than rapid growth. Domestic demand could provide a base for producers, but would not by itself solve the industry\u2019s supply and export difficulties.<\/p>\n

Asian market development will take time<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pelletier reported a substantial decline in Canadian shipments to Asia, including China and Japan.<\/p>\n

He said federal trade missions and market-development efforts were addressing both established destinations and countries where Canadian suppliers have had a smaller presence. Vietnam and Malaysia were among the markets he identified as potential outlets for medium- and lower-grade lumber.<\/p>\n

He did not expect that work to generate an immediate increase in shipments large enough to transform the industry\u2019s position.<\/p>\n

Developing a market takes time, particularly where producers must establish customer relationships, adapt product specifications and compete with existing suppliers. Diversification could contribute to a more stable sales base, but it was not a short-term substitute for the volumes and proximity of the US market.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Pulp mill closures reduce both residue demand and log supply<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pelletier described the loss of demand for sawmill residues as one of the most important reasons for declining Canadian production over the past five to ten years.<\/p>\n

He pointed to an ageing pulp and paper asset base, limited investment in large new facilities and a lack of scale relative to newer international competitors. Many Canadian pulp mills, he said, produce around 300,000\u2013400,000 tonnes annually, while much larger plants operate elsewhere.<\/p>\n

Higher fibre costs further weaken their position. At the same time, changes in Asian demand and greater Chinese production have affected the market for Canadian pulp. Newsprint faces its own continuing decline in consumption.<\/p>\n

Pelletier said Canada had experienced 17 permanent pulp and paper mill closures since 2015, including seven northern bleached softwood kraft pulp mills.<\/p>\n

The consequences extend beyond the loss of a customer for sawmill chips. Forest owners and contractors must find a market for the different assortments produced during harvesting.<\/p>\n

In eastern Canada, he said, approximately 20\u201330% of a harvested tree may be too small for lumber production. Mixed forests also produce both hardwood and softwood, in several grades. A landowner needs sufficient revenue from the combined harvest to justify bringing the material to market.<\/p>\n

When pulpwood and lower-grade outlets disappear, the economics of harvesting the sawlogs can deteriorate as well. A sawmill may therefore face reduced log availability even though the immediate closure occurred in a different part of the forest-products industry.<\/p>\n

This was the central link in his account: the decline of pulp and paper can restrict lumber production through both weaker residue revenues and a less viable harvesting operation.<\/p>\n

J.D. Irving\u2019s investment in its Saint John pulp operation provided a contrasting example. Pelletier described a major programme, including a recovery boiler scheduled for commissioning in 2028, intended to support additional pulp capacity and electricity generation. For the wider industry, however, his assessment was that too little comparable investment had taken place.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Trade uncertainty complicates production decisions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pelletier also addressed the softwood lumber dispute with the United States.<\/p>\n

His emphasis was on the uncertainty created by changing duties and repeated administrative reviews. Producers must make decisions about harvesting, production and sales without knowing precisely how future duty assessments will affect their returns.<\/p>\n

He explained that the companies selected as mandatory respondents can influence the outcome of those reviews. As the Canadian production footprint of major businesses changes, the composition of the companies examined may also change.<\/p>\n

That creates uncertainty beyond the Canadian side of the border. Higher or lower duty costs can alter the incentive to ship lumber to the United States, affecting the supply available to US buyers and the competitive conditions faced by US mills.<\/p>\n

Pelletier was speaking from both sides of that market, with J.D. Irving operating mills in Maine as well as Canada. He described a system in which shifts in trade costs complicate planning throughout the region.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Stabilisation would be a meaningful improvement<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pelletier\u2019s closing assessment was deliberately restrained.<\/p>\n

After 28 years in the business, he said optimism remained necessary. Yet his immediate hope was that Canada could stop losing industrial capacity, rather than return quickly to expansion.<\/p>\n

He identified several possible sources of support: federal work on maintaining a core forest-products industry, higher housing construction, bioenergy opportunities and export diversification.<\/p>\n

Higher energy prices could improve the economics of pellets and other uses for wood fibre. Better domestic housing delivery could strengthen lumber demand. New markets could reduce dependence on existing destinations.<\/p>\n

None of those developments was sufficient on its own. Together, they offered a possible route towards a more stable industry, provided that producers could retain access to fibre and viable outlets for the material their mills generate.<\/p>\n

Mike Glennon \u2014 Ireland needs more timber homes and a credible planting programme<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/section>\n
\n

Joint managing director, Glennon Brothers<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a>
Mike Glennon<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Mike Glennon brought the discussion back to the host country with a warning about the mismatch between Ireland\u2019s ambitions for timber construction and its rate of forest establishment.<\/p>\n

Ireland has productive forests, a modern processing sector and close commercial links with the United Kingdom. It also has a substantial housing requirement. Glennon\u2019s concern was that these advantages were being weakened by inadequate planting, regulatory difficulties and rising operating costs.<\/p>\n

He described Forest Industries Ireland, part of Ibec, Ireland\u2019s largest business representative organisation, as an important means of bringing the forestry and timber supply chain together. Speaking with a common voice was particularly important where decisions about land use, housing and climate policy affect the same industrial resource.<\/p>\n

A productive forest resource with fragmented private ownership<\/strong><\/p>\n

Glennon said Ireland\u2019s climate and soils allow trees to grow at almost twice the rate achieved in Scandinavia. He regarded that as a significant natural advantage shared, in part, with the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n

Ireland has approximately 808,000 hectares of forest, according to the figures in his presentation. Ownership is broadly divided between the state forestry company, Coillte, and the private sector.<\/p>\n

Private ownership is highly fragmented. Glennon referred to more than 24,500 private forest owners, predominantly farmers, with many holdings small in scale. Government grants and annual premiums therefore play an important role in the decision to establish a forest.<\/p>\n

He put forest cover at around 12% in Ireland and 14% in the UK, both well below the European comparison used in his presentation. There is considerable scope to increase the resource, but doing so depends on landowners accepting a long-term commitment.<\/p>\n

He also described the role of the existing forest estate in carbon storage and industrial supply. Coillte\u2019s activities extend into panel production through MEDITE SMARTPLY, linking the forest resource to both MDF and OSB manufacturing.<\/p>\n

<\/a>
\nProcessing investment has created a substantial industry<\/strong><\/p>\n

Glennon described an Irish sawmilling sector concentrated among a relatively small group of sizeable businesses, most of them family-owned.<\/p>\n

He named ECC, GP Wood, Murray Timber, Glennon Brothers and Balcas, which is part of Glennon Brothers, among the major operations. Together with medium-sized producers, the larger mills account for the great majority of output.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The sector had invested more than \u20ac350 million in recent years, he said, developing a modern and efficient processing industry employing over 2,500 people.<\/p>\n

A similar concentration exists in Great Britain, where large operators are supported by medium-sized and regional sawmills. For Glennon, these businesses increasingly form an interconnected processing and customer network across the two islands.<\/p>\n

Glennon Brothers itself has capacity exceeding one million cubic metres, according to his presentation, with activities spanning construction timber, fencing, pallet wood, timber frame, energy and pellets. The relevance to his market assessment was the extent to which the company\u2019s production and customers cross national boundaries.<\/p>\n

The UK remains the essential export market<\/strong><\/p>\n

Glennon estimated that sawmills in the Republic of Ireland processed approximately 2.25 million m\u00b3 of roundwood to produce around 1.1 million m\u00b3 of sawn timber. Domestic consumption accounted for approximately 560,000 m\u00b3.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

On an all-island basis, including Northern Ireland and round stakes, he put combined industry output at approximately 1.53 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Construction accounted for 44% of output, pallets and packaging for 24%, fencing for 22%, and agricultural round fencing for the remaining 10%. These uses give the industry a broader customer base than housing alone, although construction remains the largest category in the breakdown he presented.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

He estimated the sawn softwood market across the island of Ireland at well over one million cubic metres, with homegrown timber holding approximately two-thirds of the market.<\/p>\n

Exports, however, remain heavily concentrated. More than 95% of the Republic\u2019s sawn softwood exports go to the UK, he said, with a value of approximately \u20ac185 million. He separately put exports of panel products at around \u20ac325 million.<\/p>\n

Ireland\u2019s share of UK softwood imports had increased from approximately 8% in 2025 to 10% in the first half of 2026. That provided evidence of a stronger position within the British import market, although the total market itself remained subdued.<\/a><\/p>\n

The concentration also creates exposure. Conditions in British housing, builders\u2019 merchants, fencing and packaging directly affect the prospects of Irish mills.<\/p>\n

Storm \u00c9owyn has changed the harvesting schedule<\/strong><\/p>\n

Glennon devoted part of his presentation to the consequences of Storm \u00c9owyn, which struck in January 2025.<\/p>\n

He referred to approximately 24,000 hectares of windblown forest and potentially 10 million m\u00b3 of affected timber. In his assessment, more than 60% of the recoverable volume had already been dealt with.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The storm created an immediate requirement to mobilise harvesting, transport and processing capacity. It also changed the timing of timber availability, bringing forward material that would otherwise have been harvested over a longer period.<\/p>\n

Glennon warned against assuming that the temporary presence of storm timber meant Ireland had a lasting surplus of logs. Exports of that material could reduce the volume available to domestic mills later.<\/p>\n

He also referred to the interruption of log shipments from Scotland to Ireland because of concerns about the movement of tree-damaging insects. That restricts one source of flexibility in the regional supply system.<\/p>\n

His concern was therefore about the period after the salvage effort. Once the recoverable windblown timber has been processed or exported, mills will again depend on the standing resource and the harvesting schedules that remain.<\/p>\n

The effect of the storm on future supply forecasts had not yet been fully evaluated, he said.<\/p>\n

A strong domestic economy does not remove housing constraints<\/strong><\/p>\n

Glennon described an Irish economy that had continued to grow, while cautioning that headline GDP is strongly affected by multinational activity.<\/p>\n

He attributed much of the exceptional GDP growth in 2025 to pharmaceutical exports, including shipments brought forward ahead of expected changes in US trade policy. He contrasted that with modified domestic demand, the measure used to give a clearer account of activity within the domestic economy.<\/p>\n

In the figures he presented, modified domestic demand had increased by 3.4% in 2025, supported by consumption and investment. Employment was at a record level of around 2.8 million, while unemployment was approximately 4.9%.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

A tight labour market creates opportunities for households but also difficulties for employers. Glennon said businesses were struggling to recruit workers and warned that labour shortages could constrain further growth.<\/p>\n

He described the increasing contribution of workers from outside the EU and UK to Ireland\u2019s labour force. That development supports economic activity while also adding to the need for housing and infrastructure.<\/p>\n

The government\u2019s housing programme aims for approximately 300,000 homes over the period to 2030, he said. Against that ambition, he cited around 36,200 completions in 2025 and approximately 16,000 in the first half of 2026.<\/p>\n

Those figures left a considerable distance to the annual delivery levels required. For timber producers, the opportunity exists, but its scale depends on homes actually being completed.<\/p>\n

The type of housing affects timber demand<\/strong><\/p>\n

Glennon also drew attention to the composition of new supply.<\/p>\n

Apartments accounted for approximately one-third of Irish housing completions in 2025, according to his presentation. He said apartment completions had risen sharply from the previous year.<\/p>\n

For sawmills serving conventional construction, this changes the volume of timber associated with each additional dwelling. Under prevailing building practices, apartments generally use less sawn timber per home than individual houses.<\/p>\n

A rise in total completions therefore does not necessarily produce an equivalent increase in sawmill demand.<\/p>\n

Glennon argued for more homegrown timber in construction and greater use of timber frame. That could help meet housing needs while creating a larger domestic market for the forest resource.<\/p>\n

The commercial challenge is to connect housing policy with material use. A target for additional homes is more valuable to timber producers when building methods also provide an opportunity for wood.<\/p>\n

Low planting threatens the future commercial resource<\/strong><\/p>\n

Afforestation was the central policy concern in Glennon\u2019s presentation.<\/p>\n

He said planting in 2024 had fallen to approximately 1,500 hectares, the lowest level in 78 years. Planting recovered to around 2,500 hectares in 2025, but remained far below the government\u2019s annual target of 8,000 hectares.<\/p>\n

He also questioned the composition of the planting being approved. Commercial conifers accounted for only around 30% of approvals under the current programme, compared with a historical proportion of approximately 71%, he said.<\/p>\n

For sawmills, the issue concerns both the total area established and the species planted. More woodland does not necessarily provide the future sawlog resource required by the existing softwood processing industry.<\/p>\n

Glennon described a similar concern in the UK, where planting had also fallen short of targets and much of the new woodland consisted of broadleaves.<\/p>\n

He argued that restrictions affecting land eligibility, environmental conditions and planting on traditional forestry sites were limiting participation. Higher support for broadleaf planting was also influencing the decisions made by landowners.<\/p>\n

His criticism was directed at the relationship between policy objectives. Governments promote building with wood, but the commercial forests required to supply that wood must also be established and managed.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Landowners need confidence in the system<\/strong><\/p>\n

Glennon argued that the next forestry programme must provide practical eligibility rules, adequate financial support and a better balance between environmental planting and commercial conifer production.<\/p>\n

He also wanted stronger coordination with agricultural policy. Farmers compare forestry with other uses of their land, taking account of payments, restrictions and the duration of the commitment.<\/p>\n

The decision is not easily reversed. Establishing a forest creates obligations extending beyond the first harvest. Delays and uncertainty in the licensing system can therefore have effects on confidence that persist for years.<\/p>\n

These concerns became more explicit in the discussion from the floor, where Glennon returned to the experience of owners who had planted in good faith but later struggled to obtain permission to harvest.<\/p>\n

Costs and regulation add to the pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n

Glennon listed energy, transport, materials and skilled labour among the major sources of cost pressure.<\/p>\n

His presentation cited increases of approximately 170% in wholesale electricity prices and 230% in system charges over a ten-year comparison. He also stressed continuing volatility, which makes it harder for industrial businesses to plan.<\/p>\n

On the EU Deforestation Regulation, he questioned the additional administrative burden in a sector already subject to certification and government licensing requirements.<\/p>\n

He referred to FSC and PEFC certification and the traceability already present in the supply chain. His objection concerned the cumulative burden of regulation. During the questions, he explicitly clarified that he was not claiming certification automatically satisfied the EUDR.<\/p>\n

Despite these difficulties, Glennon identified potential growth in sawlog supply of approximately 34% by 2035, mainly from private forests. He qualified that opportunity by noting that the full effect of Storm \u00c9owyn remained to be assessed.<\/p>\n

His outlook therefore combined a possible increase in the near- to medium-term resource with concern about the planting decisions that will determine supply farther ahead. Processing investment, housing demand and future forestry need to be considered together.<\/p>\n

Stephen King \u2014 UK softwood demand faces another weak year as housing recovery slips<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n<\/section>\n
\n

UK project manager, Swedish Wood<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a>
Stephen King<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The UK softwood market is expected to contract again in 2026, with little recovery in consumption forecast for 2027. Imports are falling, domestic production is broadly stable, and the construction sectors on which timber suppliers depend have performed considerably worse than anticipated at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n

Presenting the UK assessment at the International Softwood Conference in Dublin, Stephen King described a market that continues to absorb substantial volumes of timber but is operating under persistent financial pressure. Cash flow and credit insurance were immediate concerns, while some businesses were reporting signs that the usual year-end slowdown could begin several weeks earlier than normal.<\/p>\n

The figures in his presentation put UK softwood consumption at approximately 8.52 million m\u00b3 in 2026, down from 8.79 million m\u00b3 in 2025. For 2027, consumption was forecast at 8.56 million m\u00b3, an increase of only around 40,000 m\u00b3 on the rounded totals.<\/p>\n

That would leave the market approximately 2.36 million m\u00b3, or 22%, below the 10.92 million m\u00b3 recorded in 2021. Even allowing for the exceptional conditions of the pandemic-era market, the forecast describes an industry trading at a substantially smaller scale.<\/p>\n

King nevertheless resisted interpreting the position as a collapse. Packaging, agriculture and other applications continue to support demand, and timber frame is gaining ground in England and Wales. The question is whether those sources of activity can sustain the supply chain through another period of weak housebuilding and constrained customer finances.<\/p>\n

First-half imports lost 148,000 m\u00b3<\/strong><\/p>\n

UK softwood imports totalled 2.898 million m\u00b3 in January\u2013June 2026, compared with 3.046 million m\u00b3 in the same period of 2025. The reduction of 148,000 m\u00b3 represented a decline of 4.9%, according to the Timber Development UK figures presented by King.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The comparison followed a much stronger first half in 2025, when imports had increased by 23.6% year on year. First-half imports in 2024 had fallen by 4% from the corresponding period of 2023.<\/p>\n

Those movements need to be read alongside the annual totals. Despite the strong first-half increase in 2025, full-year imports were almost unchanged at 5.772 million m\u00b3, against 5.779 million m\u00b3 in 2024. The first-half improvement had therefore not developed into a sustained increase across the year.<\/p>\n

King also referred to the usual seasonal distribution of deliveries. The first half generally accounts for more business than the second, which includes the shortened trading period in December. Simply doubling January\u2013June arrivals would not provide a dependable annual forecast.<\/p>\n

The National Softwood Division committee forecast shown later in his presentation put full-year 2026 imports at 5.544 million m\u00b3. That would be approximately 228,000 m\u00b3 below 2025, a decline of around 4%.<\/p>\n

Taken together, the first-half data and annual forecast pointed to another reduction in purchasing rather than a return to growth after several relatively flat years.<\/p>\n

Sweden retains 45% of the import market<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sweden remained by far the largest supplier, accounting for 45% of UK softwood imports in both the first half of 2025 and the first half of 2026.<\/p>\n

Latvia also maintained its share, at 18%. Together, the two countries supplied approximately 63% of the UK import market in the first six months of 2026.<\/p>\n

An unchanged percentage does not mean unchanged deliveries, however. With the total market down by 4.9%, maintaining the same share still implies a lower volume, subject to the rounding of the country percentages.<\/p>\n

The more visible changes occurred among the next three suppliers. Finland\u2019s share fell from 14% to 12%, while Germany\u2019s declined from 7% to 6%. The Republic of Ireland moved in the opposite direction, increasing its share from 8% to 10%.<\/p>\n

Ireland\u2019s gain was therefore achieved within a shrinking import market. The figures were consistent with Mike Glennon\u2019s earlier account of the growing Irish position in British supply.<\/p>\n

The five countries together accounted for approximately 91% of first-half 2026 imports. The UK remained heavily dependent on a relatively concentrated group of European suppliers, with Sweden\u2019s position considerably larger than that of any individual competitor.<\/p>\n

For exporters, the figures describe two separate commercial challenges: the total volume available to compete for is declining, while the distribution of that volume between supplying countries is also changing.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Country forecasts point to continuity rather than a major redistribution<\/strong><\/p>\n

King\u2019s annual supplier chart showed little change in the expected structure of imports between 2026 and 2027.<\/p>\n

At the rounded scale used in the chart, Sweden supplied approximately 2.6 million m\u00b3 annually across the 2025\u20132027 comparison. Latvia remained at around one million m\u00b3. Finland moved from approximately 800,000 m\u00b3 in 2025 to around 700,000 m\u00b3 in both forecast years.<\/p>\n

Ireland was shown at approximately 500,000 m\u00b3, Germany at around 400,000 m\u00b3 and other suppliers collectively at approximately 500,000 m\u00b3.<\/p>\n

These figures were rounded to one decimal place in millions of cubic metres. They show the relative size of the suppliers rather than precise country forecasts, and should not be added together as an exact reconciliation of the total import forecast.<\/p>\n

The overall picture was nevertheless clear. The forecast did not anticipate a large new source of supply or a substantial change in the ranking of the principal exporters. Most suppliers would continue operating within familiar relationships, but with limited growth in the market as a whole.<\/p>\n

Import values fell almost entirely because less timber arrived<\/strong><\/p>\n

The value of UK softwood imports declined to approximately \u00a3815 million in the first half of 2026, from \u00a3856 million a year earlier.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The \u00a341 million reduction represented a fall of 4.8%, almost identical to the 4.9% decline in physical volume. The presentation put the increase in average import price at only 0.1%.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n

UK softwood imports: a smaller market, broadly stable prices<\/p>\n

First half of each year. Import values in \u00a3 million, unless stated otherwise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Measure<\/th>\nH1 2025<\/th>\nH1 2026<\/th>\nChange<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Planed softwood<\/td>\n430<\/td>\n424<\/td>\n\u22121.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sawn softwood<\/td>\n426<\/td>\n391<\/td>\n\u22128.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total import value<\/td>\n856<\/td>\n815<\/td>\n\u22124.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Import volume, million m\u00b3<\/td>\n3.046<\/td>\n2.898<\/td>\n\u22124.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: Stephen King, ISC 2026 presentation. GWMI interpretation of the presentation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

King regarded that price change as effectively negligible. At the level of the overall import basket, suppliers were receiving little support from higher average values to compensate for the reduction in volume.<\/p>\n

The product breakdown showed a more pronounced decline in the category labelled \u201csawn\u201d than in planed timber. Sawn import values fell from approximately \u00a3426 million to \u00a3391 million, a reduction of \u00a335 million, or 8.2%. Planed timber declined from approximately \u00a3430 million to \u00a3424 million, down \u00a36 million, or 1.4%.<\/p>\n

On those rounded figures, the sawn category accounted for roughly 85% of the total reduction in import value.<\/p>\n

Planed products consequently represented about 52% of total softwood import value in the first half of 2026, compared with approximately half a year earlier. This was a change in the composition of expenditure; the value figures alone do not establish how much of each category\u2019s movement came from volume, price or product mix.<\/p>\n

For the market overall, however, King\u2019s explanation was straightforward: the lower import bill was mainly the result of fewer cubic metres arriving.<\/p>\n

Redwood values increased while whitewood declined<\/strong><\/p>\n

The species breakdown revealed further differences within the aggregate figures.<\/p>\n

Whitewood imports were valued at approximately \u00a3463 million in the first half of 2026, compared with \u00a3491 million in the corresponding period of 2025. The presentation reported a decline of 5.6%.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Redwood moved in the opposite direction, increasing from approximately \u00a3259 million to \u00a3273 million, a rise of 5.4%.<\/p>\n

Mixed and other species fell more sharply, from around \u00a3107 million to \u00a379 million. The percentage decline reported on the slide was 25.9%.<\/p>\n

These are import values, rather than measures of species-level consumption or individual product prices. They show that the market was not weakening uniformly across the softwood basket. Redwood expenditure increased even as the overall value of imports fell, while whitewood and mixed species accounted for the decline.<\/p>\n

King\u2019s slide put the average value of the total softwood import basket at approximately \u00a3281\/m\u00b3 in the first half of 2026, essentially unchanged from a year earlier.<\/p>\n

He qualified that figure during his presentation, saying he had raised a query about the precise average. His broader assessment remained that there had been little overall price movement.<\/p>\n

The average also combines products with different species, grades and degrees of processing. It provides a measure of the imported basket, rather than a quotation for a particular structural or joinery specification.<\/p>\n

Growth in panel imports does not amount to a general recovery<\/strong><\/p>\n

King placed softwood within a wider comparison of wood-product imports.<\/p>\n

In the rounded first-half volume changes shown on his opening slide, softwood imports fell by 5%, hardwood by 2%, plywood by 14% and engineered wood products by 13%.<\/p>\n

Several panel categories increased. Particleboard imports rose by 5%, OSB by 2% and MDF by 13%.<\/p>\n

The MDF increase was particularly relevant to his comments about substitution. King said MDF production and imports had gained ground over time in applications that had previously used softwood.<\/p>\n

That means some of the change in softwood demand is associated with the materials selected for a particular application, as well as with the number of homes built or renovation projects undertaken.<\/p>\n

The panel figures did not establish a broad improvement in construction. Imports can also move because of changes in domestic supply, stock purchasing and the mix of products required. Nevertheless, they showed that opportunities remained unevenly distributed across the wood-products market.<\/p>\n

A supplier exposed mainly to sawn softwood could therefore experience a different market from a business selling MDF or particleboard, even when both serve parts of the same construction and interiors industry.<\/p>\n

Structural timber prices recovered in the spring, but King warned about the lag<\/strong><\/p>\n

The structural timber price index presented by King provided a more detailed account of price movements than the first-half import average.<\/p>\n

Using 2018 as the base year of 100, the index stood at 118 in January and February 2025. It increased during the spring and reached 135 in June, before easing to 124 by December.<\/p>\n

In 2026, the index began at 124 in January, fell to 123 in February and 121 in March, then recovered to 124 in April, 130 in May and 131 in June.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The June 2026 reading was therefore above the level at the beginning of the year but below the June 2025 peak. The series did not describe a continuous rise: it showed an increase during the first half of 2025, a subsequent decline and a partial recovery during spring 2026.<\/p>\n

King cautioned that the index contains a time lag. The most recent observation should not automatically be treated as a description of the prices being negotiated at the time of publication.<\/p>\n

That qualification was particularly relevant to his outlook for the rest of 2026. He feared that later readings would show a larger decline from the June level of 131 as weaker conditions worked through the data.<\/p>\n

The nearly unchanged average import value and the movement in the structural timber index also measure different things. One covers the overall imported product basket; the other follows structural timber prices over time. Their paths need not be identical.<\/p>\n

Timber imports have held up better than housing starts<\/strong><\/p>\n

One of the more revealing charts in King\u2019s presentation compared the development of softwood imports with housing starts.<\/p>\n

Historically, he said, the two had tended to move together. More recently, imports had been maintained more strongly than the housing-starts series.<\/p>\n

His explanation included three possible sources of support: the amount of stock held in the market, continued demand from applications outside housebuilding, and an increase in timber frame\u2019s share of new construction.<\/p>\n

Packaging and agriculture were among the end uses he identified as continuing to consume material. Those markets help explain why a reduction in housing starts does not translate directly into an equivalent reduction in total softwood imports.<\/p>\n

Stock introduces a further complication. Arrivals measure timber entering the country, rather than the precise amount used by customers during the same period. Changes in inventory can temporarily widen the gap between imports and activity on construction sites.<\/p>\n

King did not quantify the contribution of stock or claim that the market had a proven surplus of a particular size. He presented inventory as one of the factors that could explain the divergence.<\/p>\n

The relationship remains commercially significant. If imports are being supported by stock accumulation rather than consumption, later purchasing may weaken. If other end uses and timber frame are sustaining demand, the market has a firmer basis than housing-start figures alone would imply.<\/p>\n

His presentation left those explanations open rather than assigning the entire difference to one cause.<\/p>\n

Timber frame offers measurable additional demand<\/strong><\/p>\n

King regarded the increased use of timber frame in England and Wales as one of the more encouraging developments.<\/p>\n

Scotland has long built the great majority of its new homes using timber frame. He put the proportion at approximately 92\u201395%.<\/p>\n

England and Wales had historically remained much lower, at around 13\u201315%. King said that share had increased in recent years and was now approaching 22%.<\/p>\n

For softwood suppliers, he translated the scale of this market into approximately 500,000 m\u00b3 of C24 structural material.<\/p>\n

That was an estimate of the demand associated with the current market, rather than an assertion that an additional half-million cubic metres had already been created by the recent increase in share.<\/p>\n

He then described the possibility of timber frame reaching approximately 26\u201327% in England and Wales by the end of the decade. On the assumptions he discussed, that could generate another 100,000\u2013150,000 m\u00b3 of demand.<\/p>\n

In a market expecting only a small increase in annual consumption in 2027, that is a meaningful opportunity. It would develop over several years and remain dependent on the number of homes built, but it gives suppliers a specific route to higher use per dwelling.<\/p>\n

King linked the potential to the work of the Structural Timber Association and the government\u2019s timber in construction roadmap. Both aim to make it easier for the building industry to use more wood.<\/p>\n

The limitation is the size of the underlying housing market. A growing share for timber frame can cushion weak construction, but the volume benefit is greater when total housebuilding also expands.<\/p>\n

Imports are forecast to recover only part of the 2026 decline<\/strong><\/p>\n

The National Softwood Division committee forecast put UK imports at 5.544 million m\u00b3 in 2026 and 5.611 million m\u00b3 in 2027.<\/p>\n

The expected increase of 67,000 m\u00b3 in 2027 would amount to approximately 1.2%. It would recover less than one-third of the 228,000 m\u00b3 reduction projected for 2026.<\/p>\n

Even if that improvement occurs, imports would remain approximately 161,000 m\u00b3 below their 2025 level and almost two million cubic metres below the 7.578 million m\u00b3 recorded in 2021.<\/p>\n

The intervening years show how little sustained recovery has taken place. Imports fell to 5.677 million m\u00b3 in 2022, then increased only modestly to 5.722 million m\u00b3 in 2023 and 5.779 million m\u00b3 in 2024. They were virtually unchanged in 2025 before the renewed decline forecast for 2026.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

King considered the 2026 estimate reasonably consistent with the direction of trading. He was more cautious about assuming that the small increase forecast for 2027 would necessarily materialise.<\/p>\n

Previous outlooks had often anticipated improvement in the year after the current one. The subsequent result had sometimes been stability or another slight decline.<\/p>\n

His concern was the repeated postponement of recovery. A market does not become certain to grow merely because it has already spent several years below its former level.<\/p>\n

Domestic production has recovered from its 2023 low<\/strong><\/p>\n

UK sawmills provided a steadier part of the supply picture.<\/p>\n

Domestic softwood production increased from 2.86 million m\u00b3 in 2023 to 3.20 million m\u00b3 in 2024 and 3.27 million m\u00b3 in 2025. The forecast held output unchanged at 3.27 million m\u00b3 in both 2026 and 2027.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

That would preserve the recovery from the 2023 low, although production would remain below the 3.57 million m\u00b3 recorded in 2021.<\/p>\n

King stressed the importance of approximately 3.2\u20133.3 million m\u00b3 of domestic output to the UK market. Discussion of imports can obscure the contribution of local mills, particularly in applications where homegrown timber has an established position.<\/p>\n

He recalled a period when a broad description of UK supply was around seven million cubic metres of imports and three million cubic metres of domestic production. The current balance is closer to five and a half million cubic metres of imports alongside just over three million cubic metres produced locally.<\/p>\n

The figures show that much of the adjustment from the larger market has occurred through reduced imports. Domestic mills have also experienced fluctuations, but the forecast does not anticipate another decline in their output over the next two years.<\/p>\n

Consumption growth is smaller than the forecast increase in imports<\/strong><\/p>\n

King\u2019s final supply-and-demand table brought imports, domestic production and exports together.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

It put softwood consumption at 9.71 million m\u00b3 in 2020 and 10.92 million m\u00b3 in 2021. Consumption then fell to 8.62 million m\u00b3 in 2022 and 8.41 million m\u00b3 in 2023, before recovering to 8.77 million m\u00b3 in 2024 and 8.79 million m\u00b3 in 2025.<\/p>\n

The forecast for 2026 was 8.52 million m\u00b3, a decline of approximately 3%. For 2027, the expected increase was only 0.5%, to 8.56 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n

UK softwood demand: only a modest recovery in sight<\/p>\n

Million m\u00b3. Shaded rows indicate forecasts.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/th>\nImports<\/th>\nProduction<\/th>\nExports<\/th>\nApparent consumption<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
2020<\/td>\n6.61<\/td>\n3.31<\/td>\n0.21<\/td>\n9.71<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2021<\/td>\n7.58<\/td>\n3.57<\/td>\n0.23<\/td>\n10.92<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2022<\/td>\n5.68<\/td>\n3.11<\/td>\n0.16<\/td>\n8.62<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2023<\/td>\n5.72<\/td>\n2.86<\/td>\n0.17<\/td>\n8.41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2024<\/td>\n5.78<\/td>\n3.20<\/td>\n0.21<\/td>\n8.77<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2025<\/td>\n5.77<\/td>\n3.27<\/td>\n0.26<\/td>\n8.79<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2026 forecast<\/td>\n5.54<\/td>\n3.27<\/td>\n0.30<\/td>\n8.52<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2027 forecast<\/td>\n5.61<\/td>\n3.27<\/td>\n0.32<\/td>\n8.56<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Apparent consumption = production + imports \u2212 exports. Figures are rounded; totals may not reconcile exactly. Changes in stocks are not separately measured.<\/p>\n

Source: Stephen King, ISC 2026 presentation. GWMI interpretation of the presentation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

These are apparent-consumption figures, calculated from production and trade rather than a direct survey of final use. They do not separately measure changes in stock.<\/p>\n

The table also explains why the 1.2% increase forecast for imports in 2027 produces a smaller increase in consumption. Domestic production is unchanged, while exports are forecast to rise.<\/p>\n

Exports were shown at approximately 260,000 m\u00b3 in 2025, 300,000 m\u00b3 in 2026 and 320,000 m\u00b3 in 2027. Part of the additional available supply therefore leaves the country.<\/p>\n

Small differences when reconstructing the totals arise from rounding, but the direction is unambiguous: the forecast is for another decline followed by near-stagnation, with consumption remaining close to the lower levels established after 2021.<\/p>\n

Cash flow and credit insurance complicate an already weak market<\/strong><\/p>\n

King\u2019s commercial comments were more immediate than the annual forecasts.<\/p>\n

He said there was financial strain within the supply chain, identifying cash flow and credit insurance as particular problems.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cCash flow is a real problem. Credit insurance is a real problem for actors in the chain.\u201d<\/p>\n

Stephen King, Swedish Wood<\/cite><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Timber can continue moving while the companies buying and selling it become less financially comfortable. The volume of trade alone does not establish the strength of the businesses carrying that trade.<\/p>\n

For suppliers, cash-flow constraints affect customers\u2019 capacity to purchase and hold stock. Difficulties obtaining credit insurance can also influence the terms on which transactions are undertaken.<\/p>\n

King did not present figures for insolvencies, overdue payments or uninsured exposure. His warning was qualitative, based on the conditions being experienced by participants in the market.<\/p>\n

It helps explain why his description combined resilience with caution. The UK still consumes substantial volumes of softwood, but maintaining those volumes does not necessarily provide adequate margins or comfortable financing throughout the chain.<\/p>\n

An earlier winter slowdown could weaken the final quarter<\/strong><\/p>\n

King also reported concern about the timing of the seasonal decline in business.<\/p>\n

Normally, activity begins to ease towards the end of November before the Christmas shutdown. He said some businesses were already seeing signs that the slowdown could begin near the start of November.<\/p>\n

He explicitly described this as anecdotal evidence rather than a completed statistical result.<\/p>\n

An earlier reduction in trading would shorten the active period for deliveries and purchasing in the final quarter. It would also leave less time for the market to recover volume lost earlier in the year.<\/p>\n

The concern was particularly relevant alongside the first-half import decline and the restrained annual forecast. Suppliers were entering the closing months of 2026 with limited evidence of stronger construction demand and the possibility that seasonal purchasing would weaken sooner than usual.<\/p>\n

Construction forecasts have deteriorated sharply<\/strong><\/p>\n

King\u2019s final comments examined the construction outlook behind those trading conditions.<\/p>\n

He referred to the government\u2019s ambition to deliver 1.5 million homes during the parliamentary term, but questioned the distance between the target and the economic conditions required to achieve it.<\/p>\n

He also criticised the limited incentives available to support housing purchases and development. In his assessment, the financial constraints facing both government and the building industry remained substantial.<\/p>\n

The Construction Products Association forecasts he quoted had changed considerably during the year.<\/p>\n

At the beginning of 2026, the CPA had expected overall construction output to rise by 1.7%. King said the latest forecast available to him instead pointed to a decline of around 4%, followed by only approximately 0.5% growth in 2027.<\/p>\n

The private housing outlook had weakened more sharply. An initial forecast of 1.5% growth in 2026 had been replaced by an expected decline of around 10%. A further fall of approximately 3% was forecast for 2027.<\/p>\n

Private housing repair, maintenance and improvement had also deteriorated. The early forecast of a 1% reduction in 2026 had become an expected decline of approximately 8%, with another 2% fall anticipated in 2027.<\/p>\n

These were the revised projections King reported during his closing remarks, rather than completed full-year results.<\/p>\n

They also limited the prospect of renovation compensating for weak new housebuilding. Unlike the more favourable longer-term renovation arguments heard in the North American presentations, the UK assessment included pressure on both new private housing and work on existing homes.<\/p>\n

King\u2019s account consequently offered a qualified case for resilience. Timber frame is gaining share, domestic sawmills are maintaining production and several non-housing applications continue to consume material. But the forecast increase in 2027 consumption is only around 40,000 m\u00b3, while customers face weak construction, constrained cash flow and uncertainty over credit.<\/p>\n

For suppliers planning their UK business, the figures support an expectation of continued trade at a reduced level. A more substantial recovery still depends on stronger building activity and an improvement in the financial conditions of the companies carrying timber through the market.<\/p>\n

Questions from the floor: Can different forest owners solve Ireland\u2019s planting problem?<\/strong><\/em><\/h4>\n

One delegate, representing a forestry fund based in Ireland, asked Glennon whether the traditional pattern of farmer ownership was part of the afforestation problem.If farmers were reluctant to plant, the delegate asked, could a greater role for institutional investors help increase forest establishment?Glennon began by acknowledging the sensitivity of land ownership in Ireland. He did not identify the balance between farmers and institutions as the main obstacle.<\/p>\n

<\/a>
Questions from the audience at ISC 2026 turned to how sawmills can secure future timber supplies while weak construction demand, rising costs and tighter credit constrain the market\u2019s recovery.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Instead, he focused on the conditions under which owners are asked to commit their land. Forestry competes with agriculture for both land and financial support. It also involves a long investment period and an obligation to replant after harvesting.<\/p>\n

He believed farmers could and would plant more, but said confidence had been damaged by the previous felling-licence crisis.<\/p>\n

Some owners had established forests with the intention of using the eventual proceeds for retirement or a major family expense. When the time came to harvest, they encountered delays and administrative difficulties. In Glennon\u2019s account, those experiences left people feeling that they had fulfilled their side of the arrangement while the system had failed them.<\/p>\n

The solution required clearer commitments, simpler applications and rules that owners could understand and trust.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cWe need to make the application more simple, more understandable, and more credible.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mike Glennon, Glennon Brothers<\/cite><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

He also repeated his concern about the emphasis on broadleaves relative to commercial conifers. Increasing the area planted would not fully address the future needs of softwood processors if the species mix continued to move away from their raw material.<\/p>\n

For Glennon, restoring credibility to the forestry programme was more important than assuming that a change in ownership would resolve the problem.<\/p>\n

Does forest certification satisfy the EUDR?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Another delegate asked Glennon to clarify his remarks about FSC and PEFC certification in relation to the EU Deforestation Regulation.<\/p>\n

The question was whether he expected certification to satisfy the regulation\u2019s requirements.<\/p>\n

Glennon explicitly said that was not what he had meant.<\/p>\n

His position was that certification, government licensing and existing controls already impose extensive requirements on the industry. He was questioning the necessity and proportionality of adding another administrative layer, rather than claiming that those systems automatically replace EUDR obligations.<\/p>\n

The clarification was important to the discussion because his presentation concerned the burden of compliance, not an exemption or an alternative legal route.<\/p>\n

The delegate acknowledged the explanation and said similar concerns were being experienced in North America.<\/p>\n

Who pays for the next rotation?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A further contribution came from the perspective of an Irish farmer who had planted forestry.<\/p>\n

The delegate argued that the initial grant and premium payments can make establishment attractive, but the position changes after the first harvest, when the owner must finance replanting.<\/p>\n

The concern was about the complete investment cycle. Support at the beginning does not remove the cost of establishing the next crop, and that obligation affects the owner\u2019s assessment of the overall return.<\/p>\n

The panel acknowledged that this was a recurring concern within the existing system.<\/p>\n

The response also noted that forestry had delivered worthwhile returns for many owners in Ireland and the UK. Those returns should remain part of the discussion, alongside the costs and obligations associated with replanting.<\/p>\n

Moderator Paul Brannen drew attention to the similarities between the two countries: both have planting targets, both have fallen short, and in both cases the composition of new woodland raises questions about the future supply of commercial conifers.<\/p>\n

The exchange brought the session back to the practical decisions behind long-term supply. A government target becomes a forest only when a landowner is willing to plant, can obtain approval and has confidence in the conditions that will apply decades later.<\/p>\n

For the businesses gathered in Malahide, the four presentations left several different versions of the same investment problem. US producers must judge how much capacity a slower-growing population will need. Canadian mills must retain access to logs and outlets for residues. Irish processors need a planting programme capable of supplying their future operations. UK suppliers must manage a market in which timber continues to move but construction and customer finances remain weak.There were opportunities in renovation, timber frame, bioenergy and more efficient production. The speakers\u2019 assessments also made clear how much work is required to turn those opportunities into dependable demand and commercially usable fibre.<\/p>\n

GWMI will publish detailed reports on the remaining two conference sessions over the coming days, covering Russia, Japan, the Middle East, raw-material availability, construction and the global demand outlook. Stay tuned for further coverage from Dublin.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/article>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

GWMI reporting from the Grand Hotel, Malahide, Dublin | International Softwood Conference, 29 October 2026 US producers are reassessing long-term housing demand, Canada is trying to stop its processing industry from shrinking, and Ireland faces a growing gap between timber … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100459,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100458","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGWMI at ISC 2026, Part 2: North American, Irish and UK market perspectives - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/gwmi-at-isc-2026-part-2-north-american-irish-and-uk-market-perspectives\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GWMI at ISC 2026, Part 2: North American, Irish and UK market perspectives - 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