{"id":100452,"date":"2026-10-29T13:05:16","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T13:05:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=100452"},"modified":"2026-10-29T21:19:46","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T21:19:46","slug":"gwmi-live-from-isc-2026-europes-softwood-industry-waits-for-a-recovery-that-keeps-slipping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/gwmi-live-from-isc-2026-europes-softwood-industry-waits-for-a-recovery-that-keeps-slipping\/","title":{"rendered":"GWMI live from ISC 2026: Europe\u2019s softwood industry waits for a recovery that keeps slipping"},"content":{"rendered":"

Reporting from the Grand Hotel, Malahide, Dublin | 29 October 2026 | Opening session<\/em><\/p>\n

A full conference room, a diminished market and a recovery that remains just beyond reach: the opening session of the International Softwood Conference in Dublin brought the contradictions facing Europe\u2019s timber industry into unusually sharp focus.<\/p>\n

At the Grand Hotel in Malahide, the strength of the turnout was visible before the first round of questions had ended. Moderator Paul Brannen noted that delegates were sitting on windowsills at the back and invited them to take the remaining seats at the front. Morten Bergsten, presenting the European Timber Trade Federation\u2019s assessment, put attendance at 285 delegates from 25 countries and said the conference had sold out four weeks in advance.<\/p>\n

GWMI is reporting live from the conference, where sawmillers, importers, economists and industry representatives are comparing the evidence behind a question that has become familiar across the sector: when will the promise of stronger timber demand finally turn into orders?<\/p>\n

The opening presentations gave that question a sharper edge. Wood is increasing its share of construction in some markets, yet total softwood consumption remains depressed. Sawmills are reducing output, but securing logs can still be difficult. Governments want more sustainable buildings, while industry representatives say the rules surrounding their materials are becoming more complicated. And just as businesses had begun to hope for a more favourable economic environment, energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty are putting that recovery at risk again.<\/p>\n

The tension running through the session was between confidence in wood\u2019s long-term role and frustration with the conditions companies face today. There were reasons for optimism, including Ireland\u2019s expanding use of timber frame construction and encouraging signs in several European markets. There was much less confidence that these developments would produce a broad recovery in 2027.<\/p>\n

Niall Collins \u2014 Ireland\u2019s forestry and timber construction outlook<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Opening the conference, Niall Collins, Ireland\u2019s Minister of State with responsibility for Forestry, Farm Safety and Horticulture, described a domestic industry whose importance extends from rural employment to housing, exports and industrial packaging.Ireland has more than 50 sawmills, he told delegates, and harvested over 5 million m\u00b3 of timber in 2025. Exports of Irish coniferous sawn timber were worth \u20ac184.3 million that year.<\/p>\n

Collins also said Ireland accounted for 20% of the United Kingdom\u2019s imported coniferous sawn timber in 2024.His housing figures offered one of the morning\u2019s more encouraging examples. Timber frame accounted for 24% of new housing in Ireland in 2021, he said.<\/p>\n

In the first half of 2026, 66% of scheme houses had notified an intention to use timber frame. The latter figure concerns intended construction methods within that category of housing, rather than completed homes across the entire market, but it points to a substantial pipeline for timber frame building.Ireland\u2019s forest cover stands at around 12%, Collins said, with a long-term ambition to increase it to 18%. He linked the 2023\u20132027 forestry programme to the need for a sustainable domestic supply of timber, alongside environmental and climate objectives. The programme supports different forest types and existing owners, in a country where he put the number of forest owners at 24,500.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Ireland\u2019s mild, moist climate gives its productive forests an advantage, he added, allowing rotations in the region of 30 years. The challenge is to connect that productive capacity with investment in processing and a larger market for wood products.<\/p>\n

Collins also described work to remove barriers to wider use of timber in construction, including mass-engineered timber. For an audience discussing weak consumption elsewhere in Europe, the Irish example provided a concrete reminder that changes in building practice can create opportunities even when the international market is difficult.<\/p>\n

Collins said the timber in construction steering group had brought government departments, industry and academia together to identify barriers and opportunities. Recommendations had been developed, with work under way on pathways for implementation. He also stressed the less visible contribution of sawmilling to other industries: timber pallets support Ireland\u2019s pharmaceutical and agricultural exports, connecting the sector to economic activity well beyond construction.<\/p>\n

Hazel Ahern Flynn \u2014 Energy inflation is running far ahead of headline prices<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n
<\/a>
Hazel Ahern Flynn<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Hazel Ahern Flynn, senior economist at Ibec, Ireland\u2019s largest business representative organisation, placed the industry\u2019s difficulties within a wider economic cycle that has repeatedly interrupted investment and construction.Businesses have passed through the pandemic, disrupted supply chains, the energy shock following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and the inflation that followed. A period of easing inflation and lower interest rates had offered some relief. Her assessment was that renewed instability and another energy shock were again complicating the outlook.<\/p>\n

The central question is how far higher energy costs spread through the economy, and how long they remain elevated. Fuel and basic commodities respond quickly. Manufacturing, services and wages follow over time. A short-lived increase can be absorbed differently from a prolonged shock that becomes embedded in companies\u2019 costs and households\u2019 spending decisions.<\/p>\n

The September figures on her inflation slide illustrated the gap between energy and the wider price level. The European Union figures were labelled at 17.8% for annual energy inflation and 3.8% for total inflation. She said energy accounted for roughly half of the EU\u2019s inflation rate, while the full effect of the shock had yet to pass through the economy.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

That creates an uncomfortable situation for manufacturers. The costs arriving in their own supply chains can rise much faster than the headline inflation rate experienced by their customers. Whether companies can recover those increases depends partly on the strength of demand further along the chain.<\/p>\n

Ahern Flynn described a range of possible outcomes rather than a single dependable path. If energy pressures ease sufficiently, the inflationary effects could fade during the first half of 2027 and allow growth to improve. A longer-lasting shock would prolong the pressure on costs, investment and purchasing power. Her central warning was about duration: the longer the initial shock persists, the more widely it spreads.<\/p>\n

For timber businesses, that transmission runs through several channels at once: production costs, transport, customers\u2019 financing costs and the viability of construction projects. Higher government borrowing costs can also constrain public investment, while more expensive mortgages weaken households\u2019 ability to buy homes.<\/p>\n

Freight provided another example of how those pressures reach the timber trade. Ahern Flynn described higher fuel costs and risk premiums affecting shipping, with considerable differences between routes. Transatlantic rates had moderated after an initial increase, she said, while longer routes from Asia to Europe and North America remained elevated. For an island economy such as Ireland, imported energy and long transport chains increase exposure to those movements.<\/p>\n

Construction figures conceal a weaker building market<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ahern Flynn cautioned against reading headline construction figures as evidence of a broad improvement in demand for structural materials. Her slide reported EU construction production up about 2% year on year over the summer, while the construction of buildings was down 3.7% annually and civil engineering was flat.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Specialised activities, including demolition, installation, completion and finishing, were supporting the overall figure. Those activities do not translate into the same demand for structural timber as a broad expansion in new buildings.<\/p>\n

Her euro-area construction purchasing managers\u2019 index chart also remained below the 50-point boundary between expansion and contraction throughout the period shown, from 2023 into 2026. The accompanying assessment described falling new orders alongside rising costs. For timber suppliers, it was a warning that improved aggregate output statistics could coexist with difficult conditions in the parts of construction most relevant to their business.<\/p>\n

Ahern Flynn expected considerable variation between national markets. Energy dependence, financing conditions, household demand and public investment plans all affect how individual countries absorb the same external shock. A single European growth figure can therefore conceal very different operating conditions for timber importers and sawmills.<\/p>\n

Public investment offered a further source of uncertainty. Ahern Flynn noted that infrastructure programmes are planned over five to ten years and do not reverse overnight. Nevertheless, more expensive government borrowing can gradually reduce spending ambitions. If businesses, households and governments all face higher financing costs at the same time, several sources of construction demand can weaken together.<\/p>\n

Trade frictions add another layer. She described an international environment in which governments are stepping back from open supply chains and placing greater emphasis on tariffs and protection of domestic industries. The effect differs between economies: energy producers and countries with favourable trading positions face a different adjustment from smaller, energy-importing countries that rely heavily on exports.<\/p>\n

Morten Bergsten \u2014 European softwood consumption remains close to its post-2022 low<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n
<\/a>
Morten Bergsten<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Morten Bergsten, presenting the European Timber Trade Federation\u2019s assessment, forecast little improvement in softwood consumption across eight European importing countries in 2027. Demand in those markets is expected to remain about 3 million m\u00b3 below its 2022 level, despite an increasing share for wood in parts of the construction sector.Bergsten examined Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain as a group. Their combined consumption is estimated at 42.807 million m\u00b3 in 2026 and forecast at 42.921 million m\u00b3 in 2027. The increase amounts to 114,000 m\u00b3, or approximately 0.3%.<\/p>\n

He began by checking the previous conference\u2019s forecasts against the results subsequently reported. For the larger importing markets covered by that comparison, the estimate presented in Oslo had been around 48.5 million m\u00b3 of imports, against a subsequently reported total of approximately 47.8 million m\u00b3. The consumption forecast had been about 135.8 million m\u00b3, compared with a reported 136.4 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n

Those aggregate forecasts had been relatively close, he said, although the differences were more substantial in some individual countries. His concern in Dublin was the limited improvement now expected for 2027.<\/p>\n

Consumption has recovered little since the 2023 fall<\/strong><\/p>\n

The eight-country consumption series showed the scale of the decline after 2022. Demand fell from approximately 45.9 million m\u00b3 that year to 42.3 million m\u00b3 in 2023. It recovered to around 42.8 million m\u00b3 in 2024 and 43.0 million m\u00b3 in 2025, before the estimated reduction to 42.8 million m\u00b3 in 2026.<\/p>\n

The 2027 forecast of roughly 42.9 million m\u00b3 leaves those markets approximately 6.6% below 2022. Most of the volume lost in the initial contraction has therefore not returned. The forecast is for another year close to the levels recorded since 2023.<\/p>\n

Germany remains by far the largest consuming market in the group. Its consumption is estimated at 15.77 million m\u00b3 in 2026 and forecast at 15.8 million m\u00b3 in 2027, an increase of only 30,000 m\u00b3. France is unchanged at 7.6 million m\u00b3, while Italy is forecast to decline from 5.557 million m\u00b3 to 5.510 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n

Austria is expected to rise from 4.758 million m\u00b3 to 4.8 million m\u00b3, and Spain from 4.017 million m\u00b3 to 4.097 million m\u00b3. Denmark\u2019s consumption is forecast to increase from 1.260 million m\u00b3 to 1.285 million m\u00b3. Belgium remains unchanged at 1.8 million m\u00b3, while the Netherlands edges down from 2.045 million m\u00b3 to 2.029 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n

Spain\u2019s projected increase of 80,000 m\u00b3 is the largest absolute gain among the eight countries. The improvement is partly offset by the declines expected in Italy and the Netherlands. France\u2019s unchanged forecast and Germany\u2019s small increase leave little additional volume from the two largest markets in the group.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Imports rise slightly, with different movements by country<\/strong><\/p>\n

Combined imports into the eight countries are forecast to increase from 18.618 million m\u00b3 in 2026 to 18.760 million m\u00b3 in 2027, a rise of 142,000 m\u00b3, or about 0.8%.<\/p>\n

Germany accounts for 100,000 m\u00b3 of that increase, with imports forecast to move from 3.7 million m\u00b3 to 3.8 million m\u00b3. The Netherlands rises from 2.525 million m\u00b3 to 2.564 million m\u00b3, Spain from 1.516 million m\u00b3 to 1.546 million m\u00b3, and Denmark from 1.130 million m\u00b3 to 1.150 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n

Italy remains the largest importer among these eight countries, although its forecast falls from 4.747 million m\u00b3 to 4.7 million m\u00b3. Imports are unchanged at 1.95 million m\u00b3 for France, 1.65 million m\u00b3 for Belgium and 1.4 million m\u00b3 for Austria.<\/p>\n

Bergsten also presented a broader consumption total that includes the United Kingdom, the United States and other ISC countries. Across that wider group, consumption is forecast to rise from 157.934 million m\u00b3 in 2026 to 160.555 million m\u00b3 in 2027, an increase of about 1.7%. That broader figure includes markets outside Europe and is not directly comparable with the eight-country European series.<\/p>\n

In his comments on individual markets, Bergsten identified Spain as a country with stronger demand and increasing imports. He also described positive developments in Greek imports and demand, and early signs of stabilisation in Germany, particularly in construction. Greece was discussed in the market commentary but is not included in the eight-country total.<\/p>\n

Several other markets continued to show weak demand and limited recovery. Bergsten\u2019s assessment was that the improvements remained localised, with no broad European upturn yet visible.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Weak building permits limit the demand outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bergsten linked the consumption figures to the reduced volume of residential construction being planned in Europe. His presentation showed EU residential building permits, measured by permitted floor area, remaining well below the levels reached in 2021\u20132022 after a temporary recovery.<\/p>\n

He distinguished permits from completed construction. A permit does not establish when a project will be built or how much timber it will eventually use. However, the weakness of the permitting figures limits the pipeline of projects from which future demand can develop.<\/p>\n

The size of that construction market was central to his argument. Increasing the use of wood within individual buildings does not necessarily compensate for a reduction in the number or area of buildings being developed. For timber consumption to increase substantially, progress in material choice must be accompanied by sufficient building activity.<\/p>\n

Wood gains share, but the volume benefit remains limited<\/strong><\/p>\n

Germany provided Bergsten\u2019s clearest example of wood gaining market share. His slide showed the share of new residential building permits using wood as the predominant material rising from 21.2% in 2021 to 21.3% in 2022, 22.0% in 2023, 24.1% in 2024 and a displayed 24.4% in 2025.<\/p>\n

He also referred to Sweden, where wood has increased its share of conventional multi-dwelling construction over the longer term. The number of new dwellings, however, had fallen substantially in recent years.<\/p>\n

Bergsten regarded those gains in market share as positive, but insufficient to produce the increase in timber volumes the industry had expected. The consumption figures still showed less softwood being used in the eight European markets than in 2022.<\/p>\n

He questioned the gap between European ambitions for lower-carbon construction and the market results. Political support for building with wood had not yet produced a corresponding expansion in consumption. In his assessment, wood was gaining ground too slowly to deliver the increase in use associated with those ambitions.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Production forecasts have been revised down in all four major countries<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bergsten\u2019s production table showed downward revisions to the 2026 forecasts for Germany, Sweden, Finland and Austria compared with the figures presented in Oslo. Their combined output is now estimated at 56.784 million m\u00b3, against the earlier forecast of 60.650 million m\u00b3. The reduction is 3.866 million m\u00b3, or 6.4%.<\/p>\n

Germany accounts for the largest revision. Its 2026 production estimate is 19.07 million m\u00b3, compared with the Oslo forecast of 21.25 million m\u00b3. That is a reduction of 2.18 million m\u00b3, or just over 10%. The new estimate is also below Germany\u2019s reported 2025 production of 20.277 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n

Sweden\u2019s estimate has been reduced from 17.8 million m\u00b3 to 17.1 million m\u00b3, compared with actual output of 17.9 million m\u00b3 in 2025. Austria\u2019s estimate has fallen from 9.9 million m\u00b3 to 9.114 million m\u00b3, against 9.4 million m\u00b3 in 2025.<\/p>\n

Finland differs in its year-on-year comparison. Its 2026 estimate of 11.5 million m\u00b3 is below the 11.7 million m\u00b3 forecast in Oslo, but above the 10.9 million m\u00b3 reported for 2025. The downward revision therefore concerns the earlier forecast, rather than a decline from the previous year.<\/p>\n

For 2027, the four-country total is forecast at 57.3 million m\u00b3, an increase of approximately 0.9% from the revised 2026 estimate. Germany is expected to rise to 19.5 million m\u00b3 and Austria to 9.2 million m\u00b3. Sweden and Finland remain unchanged at 17.1 million m\u00b3 and 11.5 million m\u00b3, respectively.<\/p>\n

Bergsten said the revisions could indicate production adjusting to current market conditions. A better balance between supply and consumption might be developing, but at a lower level of activity than the industry would prefer.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Modest economic growth has yet to produce stronger timber demand<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bergsten\u2019s economic overview covered GDP growth and unemployment across 15 European member countries. He described a general picture of modest growth and relatively stable unemployment, while noting differences between national economies.<\/p>\n

For the timber trade, he said, the relevant question was whether that economic performance would produce more construction and higher wood consumption. The figures presented for the eight importing markets showed only limited improvement. Modest GDP growth alone was not enough to establish that a substantial recovery in timber orders was under way.<\/p>\n

Documentation requirements risk making wood harder to specify<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bergsten devoted the final part of his presentation to the practical demands placed on companies supplying wood for construction. He referred to the growing combination of EU regulations, different national requirements, environmental product declarations, life-cycle assessments and certification schemes.<\/p>\n

He accepted the need for environmental documentation. His concern was that the accumulated complexity could itself become a barrier to using wood. A material could be rejected because the documentation required was too complicated, even when there was an intention to build more sustainably.<\/p>\n

He also questioned how environmental performance is calculated when competing materials are compared. Concrete and steel producers have a strong interest in the methods used, he said. His concern was that those materials could appear more favourable than wood because of calculation methods rather than their actual environmental performance.<\/p>\n

Bergsten argued for calculations that are fair, transparent and comparable. He did not present a detailed comparison of individual assessment methods during this intervention; his warning concerned the effect those rules could have on material selection and timber demand.<\/p>\n

He linked the issue to the work of ETTF, EOS, CEI-Bois and national organisations. These bodies needed to coordinate their positions and strengthen their representation in Brussels, he said, so that administrative requirements would support the use of wood in construction.<\/p>\n

His closing argument was that the industry could not rely on wood\u2019s environmental credentials alone. Consumption remained below 2022, the construction recovery was limited, and greater market share had not restored lost volumes. Increasing timber use would require both more building activity and rules that allow companies to document and supply their products without unnecessary complexity.<\/p>\n

Tommi Sneck: log supply and mill costs constrain European sawmill production<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

\n
<\/a>
Tommi Sneck<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Tommi Sneck, presenting the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry\u2019s perspective, described a sector repeatedly disappointed by the recovery. Spring optimism had too often been followed by another setback, he said, while log availability varied sharply between regions and even within individual countries.The regional differences in log supply complicate any straightforward reading of falling production as a response to weak orders alone. Sneck contrasted difficult conditions in southern Sweden with easier availability further north, and stressed that conditions also varied within Germany. A European average cannot describe the procurement position of every mill.<\/p>\n

Sneck linked the difficult by-product market partly to conditions in pulp, paper and board, where producers were facing heavy competition from China. Their reduced ability to pay for residues affects the economics of sawmilling as well. The improvement in pellet markets during the summer had therefore been welcome in parts of Central Europe, although he stressed that the relief was uneven and did not resolve the Nordic situation.<\/p>\n

He also widened the discussion of logistics beyond the freight rate for a finished timber shipment. Higher costs affect harvesting operations, handling within the mill and the movement of by-products. Their cumulative effect across the sawmill\u2019s activities can be substantial even when each individual increase appears manageable.<\/p>\n

For EOS member countries, he described production falling from around 84 million m\u00b3 in 2021 to roughly 75 million m\u00b3 in 2025, with a further decline of almost 3 million m\u00b3 estimated for 2026. Those rounded figures imply a cumulative reduction approaching 12 million m\u00b3 from the 2021 peak.<\/p>\n

The result is pressure on more than the selling price of sawn timber. Log procurement, processing costs and by-product revenues all contribute to a mill\u2019s operating position, and each was part of Sneck\u2019s explanation for the difficulties facing European producers.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

A much smaller market may need a smaller recovery<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sneck\u2019s broader European balance offered a more nuanced argument about what might happen next. In rounded figures, he put European softwood production at about 90 million m\u00b3 in 2026, compared with roughly 102 million m\u00b3 in 2021. Consumption had fallen from about 85 million m\u00b3 to around 71 million m\u00b3 over the same period.<\/p>\n

These are whole-Europe estimates from his presentation, with a different scope from Bergsten\u2019s eight-country consumption series and the four-country production table.<\/p>\n

Sneck\u2019s argument was that the industry may not need consumption to return to its 2021 peak before market conditions improve. With less production available, even a modest recovery in construction could help restore a better balance. Changes in exports outside Europe would also affect the volume available to European customers.<\/p>\n

That possibility comes with uncertainties. Sneck raised the question of how a future peace settlement in Ukraine might affect Russian supply, framing it as a scenario for the industry to consider. The timing and conditions of any return of Russian timber to European markets were not established in the session.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Regulation becomes a point of friction<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sneck was more combative in his criticism of European policymaking. He argued that successive requirements could gradually reduce harvesting possibilities and that the industry needed to defend its ability to use forests. These were the speakers\u2019 assessments of the regulatory environment, rather than findings presented in an independent comparison of materials or policy effects.<\/p>\n

The discussion also exposed a practical problem for the industry: agreeing on a common position is harder when sawmilling, pulp and paper, panels and energy businesses have different interests in the same raw material. That issue returned in the questions from the floor.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Questions from the floor: Housing finance, AI and defence spending<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

One delegate asked how housing affordability could improve if interest rates remained elevated while defence spending, artificial intelligence and data centres continued to absorb capital. The question focused on the next two to five years: if demand for financing stayed strong in those competing sectors, what would allow borrowing costs to fall?Ahern Flynn acknowledged the scale of the competition. She described strong momentum behind AI investment, but declined to make a firm prediction about how long it would last. Defence spending, in her assessment, was more firmly committed and would remain a factor for several years.Her answer also resisted treating residential construction as a simple function of the amount of capital available. In Ireland, she said, population growth and strong underlying housing demand were important drivers. The structure of the banking system, capital buffers and domestic lending rules also influence the relationship between European Central Bank rates and the financing conditions experienced by borrowers.<\/p>\n

For the direction of monetary policy, she would pay particular attention to energy and geopolitical stability. She also identified potential support for construction from German public spending plans, Ireland\u2019s growing population and rising incomes in Central and Eastern Europe. These factors could sustain demand in individual markets even while the broader financing environment remained difficult.<\/p>\n

The exchange left delegates with a qualified answer: competition from AI and defence is part of the problem, but the housing recovery will depend on a combination of costs, domestic demand, lending conditions and public policy. There was no single interest-rate forecast that could settle the question for every timber market.<\/p>\n

The industry\u2019s voice in Brussels<\/strong><\/p>\n

Another delegate challenged the industry to move beyond repeated complaints about regulation. The question referred to the limited resources of EOS, ETTF and CEI-Bois and asked what the businesses represented in the room should do themselves. If trade associations were already working with the European Commission, what additional contribution should come from individual companies?<\/p>\n

Bergsten acknowledged that the issue had been discussed at previous conferences without an easy solution. He argued that competing materials industries, including concrete, steel and glass, devoted more money to representation and promotion. Improving the timber industry\u2019s influence would require closer cooperation and a willingness to finance it.<\/p>\n

Sneck focused on fragmentation within the forest-based sector. Different industries could become absorbed in disagreements over particular issues and lose sight of shared concerns. He urged companies to concentrate more effort on common priorities and to engage with politicians in their own countries, as well as relying on representation in Brussels.<\/p>\n

The question turned an abstract debate about regulatory burdens into a discussion about company decisions: how much to invest in representation, which priorities to share and how to maintain contact with the people making policy. Neither speaker presented a ready-made organisational solution, but both argued that the existing effort needed stronger support from the industry.<\/p>\n

European shipments to the United States<\/strong><\/p>\n

A further question concerned the decline in European exports and the prospects for shipments to the US market. It addressed a central commercial uncertainty: whether difficulties in Canada\u2013US trade would create a larger opening for European suppliers.<\/p>\n

Sneck said some market participants had initially expected the dispute to increase US demand for European lumber. However, the opportunity still had to work commercially. At current US market returns, combined with substantially higher freight costs, shipments were not sufficiently attractive, he said.<\/p>\n

He also pointed to a change on the supply side in Europe. Rising log costs had reduced the cost advantage European sawmills enjoyed in earlier years. A gap left by another supplier does not automatically compensate for more expensive raw material and transport.<\/p>\n

His answer was that European exporters needed a stronger US market and better returns to make additional shipments worthwhile. The discussion therefore came back to the same problem raised throughout the morning: trade policy may change where timber can be sold, but end-market demand and the economics of delivering it determine whether those sales are viable.<\/p>\n

By the end of the opening session, the crowded room had been given a cautious outlook for 2027. There are markets where demand is improving, and building methods are changing in wood\u2019s favour. But the industry is still waiting for those gains to become large enough to offset weak construction, constrained supply and higher costs.For the sawmillers and traders gathered in Malahide, the immediate task is to judge how much demand is needed to improve a market that has already become substantially smaller. That question will follow the conference into its regional sessions, as the European assessment is tested against conditions in North America and the industry\u2019s other principal markets.<\/p>\n

GWMI will publish detailed reports on the remaining three parts of the conference over the coming days. Stay tuned for further coverage from Dublin.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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