GWMI attended the 14th European Wood-Based Panel Symposium in Hamburg on October 14\u201316, where industry forecasts pointed to further capacity cuts across Europe as weak demand, rising imports and high production costs threaten the viability of existing mills. The mood was cautious, with AFRY Management Consulting warning that a meaningful recovery in Western European panel demand may not begin until late 2027, while a return to 2021 levels could take until 2030.<\/p>\n
The figures presented in Hamburg offered little reassurance. European wood-based panel production increased by 3% in 2025, but imports rose by 6%, intensifying competition in a market already weakened by sluggish construction activity and struggling furniture manufacturers. Chinese competition and the possibility of further trade diversion following US tariff measures added to concerns over European producers' ability to maintain prices and plant utilisation.<\/p>\n
The industry's immediate challenge is therefore no longer simply to wait for demand to recover. With excess capacity likely to persist for several more years, manufacturers face increasingly difficult decisions over plant closures, investment and the future size of Europe's panel production base (see table below).<\/p>\n
AFRY sees a prolonged adjustment in European panel capacity<\/strong><\/p>\n Thomas Walther of AFRY Management Consulting presented three scenarios for the panel industry in 2027, ranging from gradual market normalisation to a more favourable regional investment cycle and a prolonged period of cost pressure.<\/p>\n The baseline scenario assumes moderate demand recovery from 2027 onwards, accompanied by consolidation of European manufacturing capacity. Investment would remain concentrated on production efficiency rather than substantial additions to output.<\/p>\n The forecast suggests that the recovery will be too slow to absorb all existing capacity in the near term. Even if orders begin improving towards the end of 2027, manufacturers may have to operate for several more years below the utilisation levels needed to support their current cost structures.<\/p>\n AFRY's assessment that demand may not return to 2021 levels until around 2030 also raises questions about the viability of older plants. Mills facing high energy costs, limited access to competitive raw materials or persistent underutilisation could become increasingly difficult to maintain.<\/p>\n The more favourable scenario envisages an earlier return of regional investment, driven by trade friction and the relocation of manufacturing closer to consumer markets. Europe, T\u00fcrkiye and North America could benefit from this development, although the timing would depend on trade policies and investment decisions.<\/p>\n Under the downside scenario, imports, energy and resin costs continue to put pressure on margins, while capital expenditure is largely restricted to essential maintenance. AFRY also anticipates a further increase in insolvencies, particularly in the furniture industry.<\/p>\n The differences between the three scenarios are substantial, but all point to the importance of manufacturing costs, capital discipline and access to customers.<\/p>\n Import growth adds pressure to an already weak market<\/strong><\/p>\n Philipp Sprockhoff, a managing board member of the European Panel Federation (EPF), described the industry as being at a crossroads.<\/p>\n European wood-based panel production increased by approximately 3% in 2025, while imports grew by 6%. The difference underlines the competitive pressure facing domestic producers at a time when European consumption has yet to establish a sustained recovery.<\/p>\n The problem is particularly difficult for mills with high fixed costs. When demand weakens, producers must spread operating expenses across fewer cubic metres of output. Lower utilisation can increase unit costs, leaving manufacturers with limited room to reduce prices without damaging margins.<\/p>\n Imported panels can intensify that pressure, especially where overseas suppliers benefit from lower energy, labour or raw material costs.<\/p>\n Trade enforcement was another concern raised during the symposium. The European industry has questioned whether existing measures adequately prevent circumvention of anti-dumping duties on Chinese hardwood plywood and restrictions affecting Russian and Belarusian birch plywood.<\/p>\n These issues extend beyond plywood. They form part of a wider debate over whether European manufacturers can compete on equal terms with suppliers operating under different cost and regulatory conditions.<\/p>\n Chinese furniture imports threaten demand for European panels<\/strong><\/p>\n Competition from China is affecting the industry through both direct panel imports and finished furniture.<\/p>\n Edi Snaidero, president of the European Furniture Industries Confederation (EFIC), described the scale of automation he observed during visits to four Chinese furniture factories in May 2026.<\/p>\n The facilities demonstrated extensive use of robotics, automated production systems and artificial intelligence, illustrating the technological capabilities now available to major Chinese furniture manufacturers.<\/p>\n According to figures presented by Snaidero, Chinese furniture imports into Europe increased by 14% in volume and 8% in value in 2025.<\/p>\n The faster increase in volume indicates that average import values declined, although changes in the product mix may have contributed to the difference.<\/p>\n For European panel producers, the significance lies in the relationship between furniture manufacturing and demand for particleboard, MDF and decorative panels.<\/p>\n When European furniture manufacturers lose orders to imported finished products, domestic demand for panels can weaken even if overall furniture consumption remains relatively stable.<\/p>\n Additional trade pressure may emerge from US tariff measures. Chinese exporters facing more difficult access to the American market could redirect some production towards Europe, increasing competition for European furniture manufacturers and their panel suppliers.<\/p>\n This creates a difficult situation for the panel industry: manufacturers face competition from imported panels while some of their principal customers face competition from imported furniture.<\/p>\n Energy and resin costs remain central to competitiveness<\/strong><\/p>\n Production costs featured prominently in the market discussions.<\/p>\n AFRY's downside scenario identified energy and resin costs as important risks, particularly if input prices rise faster than panel selling prices.<\/p>\n For particleboard and MDF manufacturers, resin consumption represents a significant component of production costs. Energy requirements are also substantial, particularly in drying operations.<\/p>\n Presentations by machinery suppliers examined opportunities to reduce these costs through improvements in drying technology, process control and production efficiency.<\/p>\n Dieffenbacher's presentation considered different drying technologies and their implications for energy use and emissions. The discussion demonstrated how environmental requirements and energy prices are influencing decisions about equipment investment.<\/p>\n However, replacing major production systems requires capital at a time when many manufacturers are reluctant to undertake large expenditure.<\/p>\n The financial case for investment therefore increasingly depends on measurable reductions in operating costs rather than expectations of higher sales volumes.<\/p>\n Material savings and automation attract investment<\/strong><\/p>\n Several technical presentations concentrated on improving the efficiency of existing production lines.<\/p>\n Fagus-GreCon examined the use of X-ray measurement and process optimisation to improve the distribution of material in panel production.<\/p>\n The presentation reported material savings of up to 4.5% in reference applications. Although the result cannot be applied uniformly across the industry, it illustrates the potential financial value of tighter process control.<\/p>\n For large panel manufacturers, even relatively small reductions in wood, resin or rejected production can produce meaningful cost savings over a year.<\/p>\n Siempelkamp, KIT and Smartech also presented applications involving artificial intelligence, production data and automated decision support.<\/p>\n These systems are intended to improve process stability, identify deviations earlier and help operators make more consistent production decisions.<\/p>\n The emphasis is changing from adding manufacturing capacity to extracting greater value from existing equipment.<\/p>\n For mills operating in a weak market, the ability to reduce raw material consumption and production losses may be more important in the short term than increasing nominal output.<\/p>\n Recycling becomes a question of raw material security<\/strong><\/p>\n Recycled wood and recovered fibres were another important part of the symposium programme.<\/p>\n Research presented by Fraunhofer WKI examined technologies for recovering fibres from MDF and HDF, alongside developments in alternative binder systems and more efficient use of wood resources.<\/p>\n The commercial interest in recycling extends beyond environmental targets.<\/p>\n European panel manufacturers compete for wood with sawmills, pulp producers, energy companies and other industrial consumers. Where supplies are constrained, this competition can increase raw material costs and affect production planning.<\/p>\n Greater use of recovered wood could reduce dependence on virgin material, although availability, contamination, collection systems and processing costs remain important limitations.<\/p>\n The potential to recover fibres from MDF and HDF is particularly relevant because these materials have historically been more difficult to recycle into comparable products than conventional particleboard.<\/p>\n Industrial adoption will depend on whether recovery processes can deliver consistent quality at a competitive cost.<\/p>\n For producers, recycling technology is increasingly linked to long-term access to raw materials and the economics of manufacturing, rather than being treated solely as an environmental initiative.<\/p>\n Regulation adds another layer of cost<\/strong><\/p>\n European manufacturers are also preparing for additional compliance requirements.<\/p>\n The EU Deforestation Regulation and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism were among the regulatory developments discussed in Hamburg.<\/p>\n Industry representatives raised concerns about the administrative and financial burden associated with traceability requirements and the potential effect of carbon-related costs on chemical inputs.<\/p>\n For panel manufacturers, these costs arrive during a period in which selling prices remain constrained by weak demand and import competition.<\/p>\n The industry's concern is that additional regulatory expenditure could widen cost differences between European producers and overseas competitors unless implementation and enforcement are consistent.<\/p>\n This issue is particularly important for manufacturers operating older plants or serving price-sensitive market segments, where there may be little opportunity to pass higher costs on to customers.<\/p>\n A smaller European panel industry may emerge from the downturn<\/strong><\/p>\n The market outlook presented in Hamburg suggests that Europe's wood-based panel industry is approaching a period of structural adjustment rather than a conventional recovery cycle.<\/p>\n AFRY's baseline scenario anticipates improving demand from 2027, but also assumes consolidation of European production capacity. The prospect of demand returning to 2021 levels only around 2030 leaves a lengthy period in which manufacturers must manage excess capacity, high operating costs and intense competition.<\/p>\n Some producers may be able to strengthen their position through investment in automation, recycling and energy efficiency. Others could face difficult decisions over whether existing plants remain economically viable.<\/p>\n The outcome will depend on manufacturing costs, access to raw materials, product mix and exposure to construction and furniture markets.<\/p>\n The mood in Hamburg suggested that the industry increasingly recognises these differences. A recovery in European demand may eventually improve market conditions, but it is unlikely to restore the competitive position of every existing producer.<\/p>\n For Europe's wood-based panel manufacturers, the coming years will be defined not only by how quickly demand returns, but by how much production capacity survives until it does.<\/p>\n European Wood-Based Panels: Market Outlook 2026\u20132030<\/span><\/p>\n Demand recovery, production capacity and competitive pressures<\/p>\n Source: AFRY Management Consulting market outlook presented at the 14th European Wood-Based Panel Symposium, Hamburg, October 2026; GWMI analysis.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" GWMI attended the 14th European Wood-Based Panel Symposium in Hamburg on October 14\u201316, where industry forecasts pointed to further capacity cuts across Europe as weak demand, rising imports and high production costs threaten the viability of existing mills. The mood … Continue reading \n\n
\n \nPeriod<\/th>\n Market outlook<\/th>\n Main pressures<\/th>\n Industry implications<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n \n 2026<\/td>\n Weak demand continues<\/td>\n High production costs, Chinese imports and subdued furniture and construction markets<\/td>\n Low plant utilisation and pressure on margins<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2027<\/td>\n No strong recovery expected before late 2027<\/td>\n Excess capacity, import competition and operating costs<\/td>\n Potential capacity reductions and consolidation<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2028<\/td>\n Gradual normalisation scenario<\/td>\n Competitive pressure and the need to improve manufacturing efficiency<\/td>\n Possible restructuring and investment in recycling<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2029<\/td>\n Continued gradual recovery scenario<\/td>\n Competition from imported panels and finished furniture<\/td>\n Greater emphasis on cost-efficient production<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2030<\/td>\n Potential return to 2021 demand levels<\/td>\n Long-term competitiveness and raw material availability<\/td>\n Industry capacity may differ from pre-downturn levels<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n
![<\/a>The mood at the European Wood-Based Panel Symposium in Hamburg was cautious, with much of the discussion focused on weak demand, rising costs and how long producers can keep their mills running at current capacity<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nImport growth adds pressure to an already weak market<\/strong><\/p>\nPhilipp Sprockhoff, a managing board member of the European Panel Federation (EPF), described the industry as being at a crossroads.<\/p>\nEuropean wood-based panel production increased by approximately 3% in 2025, while imports grew by 6%. The difference underlines the competitive pressure facing domestic producers at a time when European consumption has yet to establish a sustained recovery.<\/p>\nThe problem is particularly difficult for mills with high fixed costs. When demand weakens, producers must spread operating expenses across fewer cubic metres of output. Lower utilisation can increase unit costs, leaving manufacturers with limited room to reduce prices without damaging margins.<\/p>\nImported panels can intensify that pressure, especially where overseas suppliers benefit from lower energy, labour or raw material costs.<\/p>\nTrade enforcement was another concern raised during the symposium. The European industry has questioned whether existing measures adequately prevent circumvention of anti-dumping duties on Chinese hardwood plywood and restrictions affecting Russian and Belarusian birch plywood.<\/p>\nThese issues extend beyond plywood. They form part of a wider debate over whether European manufacturers can compete on equal terms with suppliers operating under different cost and regulatory conditions.<\/p>\nChinese furniture imports threaten demand for European panels<\/strong><\/p>\nCompetition from China is affecting the industry through both direct panel imports and finished furniture.<\/p>\nEdi Snaidero, president of the European Furniture Industries Confederation (EFIC), described the scale of automation he observed during visits to four Chinese furniture factories in May 2026.<\/p>\nThe facilities demonstrated extensive use of robotics, automated production systems and artificial intelligence, illustrating the technological capabilities now available to major Chinese furniture manufacturers.<\/p>\nAccording to figures presented by Snaidero, Chinese furniture imports into Europe increased by 14% in volume and 8% in value in 2025.<\/p>\nThe faster increase in volume indicates that average import values declined, although changes in the product mix may have contributed to the difference.<\/p>\nFor European panel producers, the significance lies in the relationship between furniture manufacturing and demand for particleboard, MDF and decorative panels.<\/p>\nWhen European furniture manufacturers lose orders to imported finished products, domestic demand for panels can weaken even if overall furniture consumption remains relatively stable.<\/p>\nAdditional trade pressure may emerge from US tariff measures. Chinese exporters facing more difficult access to the American market could redirect some production towards Europe, increasing competition for European furniture manufacturers and their panel suppliers.<\/p>\nThis creates a difficult situation for the panel industry: manufacturers face competition from imported panels while some of their principal customers face competition from imported furniture.<\/p>\nEnergy and resin costs remain central to competitiveness<\/strong><\/p>\nProduction costs featured prominently in the market discussions.<\/p>\nAFRY's downside scenario identified energy and resin costs as important risks, particularly if input prices rise faster than panel selling prices.<\/p>\nFor particleboard and MDF manufacturers, resin consumption represents a significant component of production costs. Energy requirements are also substantial, particularly in drying operations.<\/p>\nPresentations by machinery suppliers examined opportunities to reduce these costs through improvements in drying technology, process control and production efficiency.<\/p>\nDieffenbacher's presentation considered different drying technologies and their implications for energy use and emissions. The discussion demonstrated how environmental requirements and energy prices are influencing decisions about equipment investment.<\/p>\nHowever, replacing major production systems requires capital at a time when many manufacturers are reluctant to undertake large expenditure.<\/p>\nThe financial case for investment therefore increasingly depends on measurable reductions in operating costs rather than expectations of higher sales volumes.<\/p>\nMaterial savings and automation attract investment<\/strong><\/p>\nSeveral technical presentations concentrated on improving the efficiency of existing production lines.<\/p>\nFagus-GreCon examined the use of X-ray measurement and process optimisation to improve the distribution of material in panel production.<\/p>\nThe presentation reported material savings of up to 4.5% in reference applications. Although the result cannot be applied uniformly across the industry, it illustrates the potential financial value of tighter process control.<\/p>\nFor large panel manufacturers, even relatively small reductions in wood, resin or rejected production can produce meaningful cost savings over a year.<\/p>\nSiempelkamp, KIT and Smartech also presented applications involving artificial intelligence, production data and automated decision support.<\/p>\nThese systems are intended to improve process stability, identify deviations earlier and help operators make more consistent production decisions.<\/p>\nThe emphasis is changing from adding manufacturing capacity to extracting greater value from existing equipment.<\/p>\nFor mills operating in a weak market, the ability to reduce raw material consumption and production losses may be more important in the short term than increasing nominal output.<\/p>\nRecycling becomes a question of raw material security<\/strong><\/p>\nRecycled wood and recovered fibres were another important part of the symposium programme.<\/p>\nResearch presented by Fraunhofer WKI examined technologies for recovering fibres from MDF and HDF, alongside developments in alternative binder systems and more efficient use of wood resources.<\/p>\nThe commercial interest in recycling extends beyond environmental targets.<\/p>\nEuropean panel manufacturers compete for wood with sawmills, pulp producers, energy companies and other industrial consumers. Where supplies are constrained, this competition can increase raw material costs and affect production planning.<\/p>\nGreater use of recovered wood could reduce dependence on virgin material, although availability, contamination, collection systems and processing costs remain important limitations.<\/p>\nThe potential to recover fibres from MDF and HDF is particularly relevant because these materials have historically been more difficult to recycle into comparable products than conventional particleboard.<\/p>\nIndustrial adoption will depend on whether recovery processes can deliver consistent quality at a competitive cost.<\/p>\nFor producers, recycling technology is increasingly linked to long-term access to raw materials and the economics of manufacturing, rather than being treated solely as an environmental initiative.<\/p>\nRegulation adds another layer of cost<\/strong><\/p>\nEuropean manufacturers are also preparing for additional compliance requirements.<\/p>\nThe EU Deforestation Regulation and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism were among the regulatory developments discussed in Hamburg.<\/p>\nIndustry representatives raised concerns about the administrative and financial burden associated with traceability requirements and the potential effect of carbon-related costs on chemical inputs.<\/p>\nFor panel manufacturers, these costs arrive during a period in which selling prices remain constrained by weak demand and import competition.<\/p>\nThe industry's concern is that additional regulatory expenditure could widen cost differences between European producers and overseas competitors unless implementation and enforcement are consistent.<\/p>\nThis issue is particularly important for manufacturers operating older plants or serving price-sensitive market segments, where there may be little opportunity to pass higher costs on to customers.<\/p>\nA smaller European panel industry may emerge from the downturn<\/strong><\/p>\nThe market outlook presented in Hamburg suggests that Europe's wood-based panel industry is approaching a period of structural adjustment rather than a conventional recovery cycle.<\/p>\nAFRY's baseline scenario anticipates improving demand from 2027, but also assumes consolidation of European production capacity. The prospect of demand returning to 2021 levels only around 2030 leaves a lengthy period in which manufacturers must manage excess capacity, high operating costs and intense competition.<\/p>\nSome producers may be able to strengthen their position through investment in automation, recycling and energy efficiency. Others could face difficult decisions over whether existing plants remain economically viable.<\/p>\nThe outcome will depend on manufacturing costs, access to raw materials, product mix and exposure to construction and furniture markets.<\/p>\nThe mood in Hamburg suggested that the industry increasingly recognises these differences. A recovery in European demand may eventually improve market conditions, but it is unlikely to restore the competitive position of every existing producer.<\/p>\nFor Europe's wood-based panel manufacturers, the coming years will be defined not only by how quickly demand returns, but by how much production capacity survives until it does.<\/p>\nEuropean Wood-Based Panels: Market Outlook 2026\u20132030<\/span><\/p>\n\nDemand recovery, production capacity and competitive pressures<\/p>\n\n\n\n\nPeriod<\/th>\nMarket outlook<\/th>\nMain pressures<\/th>\nIndustry implications<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n\n\n2026<\/td>\nWeak demand continues<\/td>\nHigh production costs, Chinese imports and subdued furniture and construction markets<\/td>\nLow plant utilisation and pressure on margins<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n2027<\/td>\nNo strong recovery expected before late 2027<\/td>\nExcess capacity, import competition and operating costs<\/td>\nPotential capacity reductions and consolidation<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n2028<\/td>\nGradual normalisation scenario<\/td>\nCompetitive pressure and the need to improve manufacturing efficiency<\/td>\nPossible restructuring and investment in recycling<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n2029<\/td>\nContinued gradual recovery scenario<\/td>\nCompetition from imported panels and finished furniture<\/td>\nGreater emphasis on cost-efficient production<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n2030<\/td>\nPotential return to 2021 demand levels<\/td>\nLong-term competitiveness and raw material availability<\/td>\nIndustry capacity may differ from pre-downturn levels<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\nSource: AFRY Management Consulting market outlook presented at the 14th European Wood-Based Panel Symposium, Hamburg, October 2026; GWMI analysis.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"GWMI attended the 14th European Wood-Based Panel Symposium in Hamburg on October 14\u201316, where industry forecasts pointed to further capacity cuts across Europe as weak demand, rising imports and high production costs threaten the viability of existing mills. The mood … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100353,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWood-based panel producers face further capacity cuts as recovery remains elusive - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/wood-based-panel-producers-face-further-capacity-cuts-as-recovery-remains-elusive\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Wood-based panel producers face further capacity cuts as recovery remains elusive - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"GWMI attended the 14th European Wood-Based Panel Symposium in Hamburg on October 14\u201316, where industry forecasts pointed to further capacity cuts across Europe as weak demand, rising imports and high production costs threaten the viability of existing mills. 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