{"id":100325,"date":"2026-10-19T05:23:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T05:23:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=100325"},"modified":"2026-10-19T20:29:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T20:29:48","slug":"german-spruce-sawlog-prices-retreat-as-sawmills-cut-purchases-and-lumber-production-falls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/german-spruce-sawlog-prices-retreat-as-sawmills-cut-purchases-and-lumber-production-falls\/","title":{"rendered":"German spruce sawlog prices retreat as sawmills cut purchases and lumber production falls"},"content":{"rendered":"

Germany's spruce sawlog market has turned lower after almost two years of rising prices, with the first substantial correction emerging in the autumn of 2026. A GWMI review of log prices in Germany indicates that fresh spruce sawlogs have fallen from their summer highs, as sawmills reduce purchases in response to weaker lumber demand and lower production volumes.<\/p>\n

The decline has been particularly noticeable in southern Germany, where spruce prices had remained firm despite the prolonged downturn in domestic construction. Sawmills are taking a more cautious approach to procurement, with reduced operating hours, lower lumber output and existing log inventories limiting their willingness to accept the prices demanded by forest owners.<\/p>\n

The latest quotations indicate that the market has changed direction after the increases recorded during 2025 and the first half of 2026. Nevertheless, raw-material costs remain considerably higher than in previous years, leaving German sawmills under pressure to secure sufficient margins on finished lumber.<\/p>\n

The reversal in log prices<\/strong><\/p>\n

The latest adjustment follows a period during which sawlog prices had proved resistant to weakness in the lumber market.<\/p>\n

Throughout much of 2025 and the first half of 2026, German sawmills faced a difficult combination of expensive raw materials and insufficient demand for their finished products. Log prices continued to rise even as construction activity remained subdued. Forest owners benefited from competition between buyers in several regions, while mills had limited opportunities to pass higher costs on to customers.<\/p>\n

The situation began to change during the summer. With lumber orders failing to recover sufficiently, sawmills reduced purchasing volumes and became less willing to commit to long-term deliveries at the prices prevailing earlier in the year.<\/p>\n

Initial reductions were relatively modest and differed considerably between regions. By October, however, negotiations for new supply contracts indicated that buyers were increasingly seeking lower prices for standard spruce assortments.<\/p>\n

For forest owners, the change means surrendering part of the pricing advantage established during the previous two years. For sawmills, it offers some relief from the raw-material costs that have weighed on their operations.<\/p>\n

The decline has not erased the increases recorded since 2024. German mills are still purchasing spruce at prices considerably above those prevailing before the latest upward movement.<\/p>\n

There are also substantial differences between individual regions. Some mills continue to pay relatively high prices for preferred spruce assortments, particularly where established supply contracts remain in force. Elsewhere, reduced purchasing activity has already resulted in more pronounced adjustments.<\/p>\n

A GWMI review of published regional quotations indicates that the downward movement is becoming more consistent, although the extent of the decline still depends on local purchasing requirements, timber quality and the terms of individual contracts.<\/p>\n

The availability of buyers has become at least as important as the availability of timber.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Period<\/th>\nSpruce sawlogs
\nEUR\/m\u00b3<\/th>\n		Change<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Late 2024<\/td>\n102.0<\/td>\nBase period<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2025 reference<\/td>\n103.3<\/td>\n+1.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Spring 2026<\/td>\n127.8<\/td>\n+23.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Q3 2026<\/td>\n124.5<\/td>\n-2.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 2026<\/td>\n117.4<\/td>\n-5.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: GWMI review of German regional spruce sawlog quotations. Indicative net prices for fresh spruce B\/C, predominantly 2b+. Historical samples vary by period and region; changes are calculated against the preceding reference point.<\/p>\n

Sawmills are buying less, not necessarily because logs are scarce<\/strong><\/p>\n

Germany's sawlog market has historically been influenced by harvesting conditions, bark beetle damage, storm-related timber availability and competition between industrial consumers. These factors remain relevant, but the present adjustment is increasingly being determined by the volume of timber sawmills are prepared to process.<\/p>\n

The German sawmill industry entered 2026 expecting some improvement in demand following several difficult years for residential construction. That recovery has been slow to materialise.<\/p>\n

Preliminary production figures indicate that German softwood lumber output fell to approximately 3.49 million m\u00b3 in the second quarter of 2026, a decline of 13.9% compared with the corresponding period of 2025. The German Sawmill and Wood Industry Association has also warned that annual production could fall by close to 10%.<\/p>\n

A reduction of this magnitude changes the purchasing requirements of the industry. Mills operating fewer shifts require fewer logs, even when timber is readily available from forest owners. The effect is particularly pronounced when companies are already holding inventories purchased at higher prices.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Sawmills cannot immediately benefit from a decline in new log quotations if a significant proportion of their production is still being supplied from stocks accumulated during the spring and summer.<\/p>\n

A reduction in the purchase price of logs does not automatically produce an equivalent improvement in operating margins. The financial benefit depends on how quickly existing inventories are consumed, the terms of supply contracts and the prices mills receive for lumber.<\/p>\n

It also depends on whether mills can maintain sufficient production volumes to cover their fixed costs.<\/p>\n

For some operators, running additional shifts simply to take advantage of cheaper logs would make little commercial sense if the resulting lumber cannot be sold at an acceptable price.<\/p>\n

The reduction in log purchases is therefore not simply a response to high raw-material costs. It is also a consequence of the limited opportunities to sell additional lumber profitably.<\/p>\n

Lumber prices have not followed log prices lower<\/strong><\/p>\n

The relationship between sawlog and lumber prices has become more complicated during 2026.<\/p>\n

German producer-price statistics indicate that softwood lumber prices were 7.7% higher year on year in July, despite the substantial decline in production volumes. Reduced output appears to have helped maintain prices for some finished products, even as demand remained weak.<\/p>\n

Higher selling prices, however, do not necessarily mean better profitability.<\/p>\n

A sawmill selling less lumber at a higher unit price may still generate lower revenue if the reduction in volume is sufficiently large. Its costs per cubic metre can also increase when machinery, labour and other fixed expenses are spread across fewer units of production.<\/p>\n

The difficulty is particularly apparent among mills that invested in additional capacity or modernised their facilities during the stronger market conditions of previous years.<\/p>\n

Such investments require consistently high throughput to deliver their expected financial returns. A prolonged period of reduced production can place considerable pressure on operations designed to process large volumes of timber.<\/p>\n

Companies with lower debt, flexible production schedules or established customers in export markets may be better placed to reduce purchases temporarily and wait for more favourable trading conditions.<\/p>\n

Other mills have less room to manoeuvre. Maintaining production can be necessary to meet financial obligations and retain customers, even when margins are narrow.<\/p>\n

These differences help explain why the reduction in sawlog prices has not produced an immediate increase in lumber production.<\/p>\n

Lower raw-material costs are welcome, but they do not resolve the problem of insufficient orders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
GERMAN SAWMILL INDUSTRY | 2026 MARKET MONITOR<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Indicator<\/th>\nLatest data<\/th>\nChange \/ period<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Softwood lumber production<\/td>\n3.49 million m\u00b3<\/td>\n-13.9% YoY, Q2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total lumber production<\/td>\nH1 2026<\/td>\n-15.0% YoY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Softwood share of lumber output<\/td>\n96%<\/td>\nH1 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Particleboard production<\/td>\n1.54 million m\u00b3<\/td>\nQ2 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Construction orders, real terms<\/td>\nJuly 2026<\/td>\n-1.9% YoY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sawmill industry output outlook<\/td>\nFull-year 2026<\/td>\n-9% to -10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Sources: Destatis, DeSH and published German industry statistics. Production figures are preliminary. The full-year output decline is an industry projection. Construction orders refer to the\u00a0 construction sector, not exclusively timber construction.<\/p>\n

The German construction market remains the main constraint<\/strong><\/p>\n

The domestic construction sector continues to determine much of the outlook for German lumber producers.<\/p>\n

Residential building activity has been depressed by financing costs, weak investment and the decline in new housing projects. Although the market has shown signs of stabilisation, the improvement has not been sufficient to generate a sustained increase in orders for structural lumber.<\/p>\n

German mills also face competition in export markets, where producers from Scandinavia, Central Europe and the Baltic region are seeking customers for their own output.<\/p>\n

Export opportunities can provide an outlet for surplus production, but the prices available in international markets are not necessarily attractive enough to compensate for Germany's comparatively high operating costs.<\/p>\n

Transport expenses add another constraint. For mills located far from seaports, the cost of delivering lumber to overseas markets can substantially reduce the margin remaining after purchasing and processing logs.<\/p>\n

These conditions have made production decisions increasingly dependent on confirmed orders. Mills are less inclined to maintain output simply to preserve market share when additional volumes risk placing further pressure on selling prices.<\/p>\n

The consequence for forest owners is a less predictable purchasing environment.<\/p>\n

During periods of strong demand, competition between mills can support log prices even when harvesting volumes increase. Under current conditions, additional timber availability does not necessarily attract additional buyers.<\/p>\n

Forest owners may find that securing reliable delivery schedules and sales contracts is becoming more difficult than negotiating the highest possible price.<\/p>\n

The situation also varies between large industrial sawmills and smaller regional operators. Larger companies can sometimes redirect lumber towards export customers or alternative markets, while smaller mills may depend more heavily on local construction activity and established buyers.<\/p>\n

Neither model is immune to the present difficulties. Large mills face the financial consequences of reduced capacity utilisation, while smaller operators may struggle to maintain adequate sales volumes.<\/p>\n

A difficult adjustment for forest owners<\/strong><\/p>\n

The decline in spruce prices also has implications for harvesting decisions.<\/p>\n

When prices are high, harvesting fresh spruce can remain commercially attractive for many forest owners, depending on extraction costs and forest conditions. A reduction in quotations changes the calculation, particularly where harvesting and transport costs are relatively high.<\/p>\n

Private forest owners may choose to postpone some harvesting if they expect prices to improve. Larger forestry operations, by contrast, often have more established harvesting programmes and supply commitments.<\/p>\n

This difference can influence the volume of fresh logs reaching the market over the coming months.<\/p>\n

If forest owners reduce harvesting in response to lower prices, the supply available to sawmills could tighten again. Such an adjustment would become more relevant if lumber demand improves during the first half of 2027.<\/p>\n

The present decline also differs from periods when large volumes of beetle-damaged or storm-felled timber entered the market and forced prices down.<\/p>\n

In those circumstances, forest owners often had little choice but to harvest and sell damaged timber quickly. The current adjustment is more closely associated with reduced industrial consumption and the unwillingness of sawmills to maintain previous purchasing volumes.<\/p>\n

Forest owners with healthy standing timber have greater flexibility over the timing of harvesting than those dealing with damaged wood.<\/p>\n

This could limit the volume of fresh spruce offered at lower prices, particularly if owners believe that the current weakness will prove temporary.<\/p>\n

At the same time, postponing harvesting does not guarantee a better price later. If sawmill production remains depressed, purchasing requirements may stay below the volumes that forest owners would prefer to sell.<\/p>\n

The market is therefore entering a period in which both sellers and buyers have reasons to delay commitments.<\/p>\n

The next negotiations will test how far prices can fall<\/strong><\/p>\n

The coming winter contract period will provide a clearer indication of whether the October decline represents a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a longer downward movement.<\/p>\n

The latest quotations remain high by the standards of the past several years. Nevertheless, the market has already moved sufficiently to challenge the assumption that spruce prices can remain near their earlier peaks while lumber production continues to contract.<\/p>\n

For sawmills, the immediate priority will be to align log purchases more closely with confirmed lumber orders. Companies with substantial inventories are likely to remain selective, while those requiring fresh timber for particular production programmes may continue to pay premiums for preferred assortments.<\/p>\n

Forest owners, meanwhile, will have to decide whether to accept lower quotations or postpone deliveries where possible.<\/p>\n

A further reduction in log prices would improve the purchasing position of sawmills, although the benefit would differ between companies according to their inventories, production costs and sales contracts.<\/p>\n

Mills that have already reduced their log stocks could benefit sooner than those still processing timber purchased during the period of higher prices.<\/p>\n

The decisive variable remains lumber demand<\/strong><\/p>\n

Germany's sawmill industry has already demonstrated that it can reduce production significantly without causing a comparable decline in finished-product prices. Whether mills can maintain this approach will depend on construction orders, export sales and the financial cost of operating below capacity.<\/p>\n

The latest movement in spruce prices suggests that the negotiating advantage is shifting away from forest owners and towards mills with the flexibility to reduce purchases.<\/p>\n

The market has not returned to the conditions of 2024, and the recent decline should not be mistaken for a complete reversal of the increases recorded over the past two years. Nevertheless, the autumn negotiations have established a different starting point for the winter season.<\/p>\n

\n

GWMI expects German spruce sawlog prices to remain under pressure during the final quarter of 2026, particularly in regions where sawmills continue to operate below capacity. Further reductions will depend on the willingness of forest owners to accept lower offers and on the volume of timber mills require for their winter production programmes. A recovery in construction orders would change the purchasing calculations of sawmills. Until that happens, cheaper logs alone are unlikely to persuade German producers to increase output substantially.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Germany’s spruce sawlog market has turned lower after almost two years of rising prices, with the first substantial correction emerging in the autumn of 2026. A GWMI review of log prices in Germany indicates that fresh spruce sawlogs have fallen … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100326,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGerman spruce sawlog prices retreat as sawmills cut purchases and lumber production falls - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/german-spruce-sawlog-prices-retreat-as-sawmills-cut-purchases-and-lumber-production-falls\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"German spruce sawlog prices retreat as sawmills cut purchases and lumber production falls - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Germany's spruce sawlog market has turned lower after almost two years of rising prices, with the first substantial correction emerging in the autumn of 2026. 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