Global softwood lumber demand could reach 335 million m\u00b3 by 2030, requiring an estimated 22 million m\u00b3 of additional supply. Yet some of the world's traditional producing regions are losing access to the timber needed to meet that demand. Canadian sawmill production continues to decline, Central Europe's exceptional supply of damaged spruce is disappearing, and Nordic producers face high sawlog costs and constraints on additional harvesting. The southern United States remains the strongest candidate for expanding production, raising questions about the future competitiveness of Europe's sawmill industry.<\/p>\n
European sawmills have spent much of 2026 struggling with weak construction activity, high raw material prices and limited opportunities to improve margins. Mills have reduced shifts, postponed investments and, in some cases, closed altogether. Against this background, warnings about a future shortage of softwood lumber may seem difficult to reconcile with current market conditions. There is still unused production capacity, and many producers would welcome more orders before worrying about their ability to supply them.<\/p>\n
The difficulty is that lumber demand and sawlog availability do not follow the same timetable. Construction activity can recover within a relatively short period, but forests damaged by insects, drought or fire cannot be replaced nearly as quickly. In several producing regions, the volume of economically harvestable softwood is declining even while demand for finished lumber remains subdued. For European sawmills, this raises a question that extends beyond the next market cycle: whether they will still have access to sufficient raw material at competitive prices when demand eventually improves.<\/p>\n
Global demand could require another 22 million m\u00b3 of lumber<\/strong><\/p>\n Global softwood lumber consumption is projected to increase by approximately 1.2% annually between 2025 and 2030, reaching around 335 million m\u00b3 by the end of the decade. This would require an estimated 22 million m\u00b3 of additional supply, with the United States, Europe and China expected to account for approximately 70% of the increase. The forecast assumes a gradual recovery in construction and economic activity, rather than a return to the exceptional growth rates recorded during earlier housing booms.<\/p>\n Even relatively modest demand growth could become difficult to accommodate. According to the historical FAOSTAT figures cited in the underlying analysis, global sawn timber production expanded by an average of approximately 0.6% annually between 2000 and 2024. Although this historical figure covers a broader product category than the softwood lumber forecast, it illustrates how slowly production has increased over the longer term.<\/p>\n The problem is not necessarily insufficient sawmill capacity. Existing mills could increase output if orders improved, but their ability to do so depends on securing enough suitable logs. New production requires investment in harvesting, transport, processing equipment and labour, while forest resources themselves cannot be expanded within a few years. A recovery in demand could therefore produce very different results across the world's main softwood-producing regions.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Canada continues to lose production capacity<\/strong><\/p>\n Canada's declining production is one of the most significant structural changes in the international softwood lumber market. British Columbia has suffered from mountain pine beetle infestations, forest fires and years of intensive harvesting, leaving sawmills with a smaller and increasingly expensive timber resource. Lumber production in the province has fallen by approximately half compared with 2017, while numerous mills have closed, reduced shifts or permanently withdrawn capacity.<\/p>\n US tariffs have made the situation more difficult, but they are not the principal explanation for the decline in timber availability. Even without trade restrictions, many British Columbia sawmills would face higher procurement costs and reduced access to economically harvestable forests. The industry has also been affected by transportation expenses, labour costs and the need to process timber from increasingly distant harvesting areas.<\/p>\n Canadian producers have consequently directed considerable investment towards the southern United States. Several major forestry groups now operate substantial production capacity south of the border, where pine resources are more abundant and opportunities for industrial expansion are greater. Efforts to diversify Canadian lumber exports towards Asia and Europe have faced additional difficulties, including freight costs, product dimensions and differences in customer requirements.<\/p>\n British Columbia will remain an important producing region, but a rapid return to its previous production levels appears unlikely. The decline has implications beyond Canada, particularly for the United States, which has traditionally relied heavily on Canadian softwood lumber imports.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n US South offers the strongest potential for expansion<\/strong><\/p>\n The southern United States has become the principal destination for new North American sawmill investment. The region has extensive commercially managed pine forests, a large private forest ownership base and substantial potential to increase timber harvesting. Logging is estimated to account for approximately 65% of annual biological growth in southern pine forests, meaning that standing timber inventories continue to increase.<\/p>\n The US South overtook Canada in softwood lumber production capacity in 2022. Investment by American, Canadian and European forest industry companies has brought new mills, modern processing equipment and additional production capacity to the region. Southern Yellow Pine has consequently become increasingly important to the North American lumber market.<\/p>\n Further growth, however, depends on more than the availability of standing timber. Forest ownership is fragmented, and the commercial supply of logs depends on landowners' willingness to harvest. Logging contractors, truck drivers and skilled industrial workers are not available in unlimited numbers, while transport distances can determine whether a particular forest resource is economically attractive.<\/p>\n New sawmills also require dependable procurement arrangements. A large biological surplus may exist at regional level without guaranteeing sufficient timber at competitive prices within the operating radius of an individual mill. Nevertheless, the US South is expected to provide much of the additional softwood lumber required by the global market before 2030.<\/p>\n The implications for European producers are considerable. While several European sawmills are struggling with expensive logs and declining profitability, competitors in the southern United States are investing in modern capacity close to expanding pine resources. The difference is not simply one of technology or labour costs. Raw material availability is increasingly influencing where companies choose to invest.<\/p>\n Central Europe's exceptional timber supply is coming to an end<\/strong><\/p>\n European sawmills have benefited from unusually large volumes of damaged spruce timber following successive periods of drought and bark beetle infestation. In Germany, the Czech Republic and neighbouring countries, extensive salvage harvesting brought additional logs onto the market and temporarily increased the supply available to processors.<\/p>\n Annual harvesting in Central Europe increased from approximately 158 million m\u00b3 during 2010\u20132017 to around 183 million m\u00b3 during 2018\u20132021, according to the estimates cited in the underlying analysis. This represented an additional 25 million m\u00b3 annually during the period of extensive forest damage. For some sawmills, the exceptional availability of salvage timber supported production and exports, even as forest owners faced substantial losses.<\/p>\n That supply is now diminishing. As damaged stands are cleared, replacement forests remain decades away from producing commercial sawlogs. Climate change is also affecting the future distribution of Norway spruce, particularly in lower-altitude areas exposed to drought and higher temperatures.<\/p>\n Forest owners are increasingly being encouraged to diversify species and establish stands better suited to changing climatic conditions. These measures may improve long-term forest health, but they also create uncertainty for sawmills designed around spruce processing. Different species require different equipment settings, grading systems and product applications, while structural timber markets cannot always accommodate substitution without changes to technical standards.<\/p>\n The consequences could become particularly important during the next recovery in European construction. Sawmills that previously relied on large volumes of salvage spruce may find themselves competing for a smaller supply of fresh logs, potentially at considerably higher prices.<\/p>\n Europe has more forests, but not necessarily more sawlogs<\/strong><\/p>\n Europe's forest resources have continued to expand over the past three decades. According to the State of Europe's Forests 2025 report, published by FOREST EUROPE in March 2026, forest area has increased by approximately 11% since 1990, reaching around 232 million hectares. Standing timber volume has risen by approximately 45% over the same period, while annual fellings represent around 81% of net forest growth at the pan-European level.<\/p>\n These figures show that Europe's forests are accumulating wood, but they do not establish how much of that resource is available to the sawmill industry. Growing inventories may include hardwoods, younger stands, protected forests or timber located too far from existing infrastructure to be harvested economically. The species, quality, dimensions and location of the resource are often more important to a sawmill than the total volume standing in a country's forests.<\/p>\n Forest policy adds another consideration. European governments are seeking to reconcile timber harvesting with biodiversity protection, carbon accounting and forest restoration requirements. In Finland and Sweden, discussions surrounding forest carbon sinks and land-use commitments have increased scrutiny of future harvesting levels.<\/p>\n The impact will depend on national decisions and how regulations are implemented. Nevertheless, Europe's ability to increase softwood lumber production cannot be assessed solely from forest growth statistics. A larger forest resource does not automatically provide the industry with more commercially available spruce and pine logs.<\/p>\n Nordic producers retain an advantage, but face expensive raw material<\/strong><\/p>\n Finland and Sweden occupy an important position in the European softwood lumber market. Their forests contain substantial quantities of spruce and pine, supported by established harvesting systems, transport infrastructure and export-oriented sawmill industries. Nordic producers also have extensive experience manufacturing structural, joinery and other higher-grade lumber products for international customers.<\/p>\n As Central Europe's supply of suitable spruce declines, the commercial importance of Nordic raw material could increase. However, additional harvesting cannot simply be assumed. Existing industrial demand, forest management policies and environmental requirements all influence the volumes that can be brought onto the market.<\/p>\n High sawlog prices have already become a serious problem for Nordic sawmills. Several producers have faced rising procurement costs despite weak demand for finished lumber, leaving little opportunity to pass higher costs on to customers. The resulting pressure on margins has contributed to production reductions and difficult investment decisions.<\/p>\n This situation challenges the assumption that countries with extensive forest resources will necessarily remain the most competitive lumber producers. A modern sawmill can improve efficiency, reduce labour requirements and increase recovery rates, but these advantages have limits when raw material prices rise faster than finished product prices.<\/p>\n For GWMI, the question is whether Nordic producers can maintain their position in international markets if sawlog costs remain elevated. Access to high-quality timber remains an advantage, but the price paid for that timber will increasingly determine the profitability of processing it.<\/p>\n Russia has vast resources but limited ability to expand exports<\/strong><\/p>\n Russia possesses some of the world's largest coniferous forest resources, although a considerable proportion is located far from established industrial facilities, transport networks and export ports. Expanding production would require major investment in forest roads, railways, harvesting equipment and sawmill capacity.<\/p>\n Sanctions, restrictions on financing and technology, and Russian timber export policies further complicate the situation. Before the restrictions introduced in 2022, China imported approximately 2.6 million m\u00b3 of softwood logs annually from Russia, according to the figures cited in the source analysis. Russia remains an important supplier of sawn timber to the Chinese market, but increasing production substantially would require overcoming significant infrastructure and investment constraints.<\/p>\n For European buyers, Russian timber cannot be treated as a readily available alternative to domestic or Nordic supplies under current trade restrictions. The country's extensive forest resources therefore offer little immediate relief to European sawmills facing tighter raw material conditions.<\/p>\n Southern Hemisphere cannot quickly replace lost production<\/strong><\/p>\n New Zealand, Chile and Brazil are established participants in international softwood markets, but expanding their production sufficiently to compensate for declining supply elsewhere would take time. Plantation forestry requires long investment periods, and new forests established today will not produce mature sawlogs for many years.<\/p>\n The underlying analysis indicates that softwood plantation areas have expanded only modestly in Brazil and New Zealand since 2000, while declining in Chile. Much of the forestry investment in South America and Asia has also concentrated on hardwood plantations, particularly eucalyptus, rather than species traditionally used for structural softwood lumber.<\/p>\n Product differences create further limitations. Radiata pine, Southern Yellow Pine, Nordic spruce and Canadian SPF are all commercially important softwoods, but they cannot replace one another in every application. Strength grading, treatment requirements, dimensions and building standards influence which species can be used, particularly in structural construction.<\/p>\n These differences do not prevent substitution, but they can make it expensive and time-consuming. Importers and manufacturers may need to adapt processing methods, specifications or product approvals before alternative timber can be used at scale.<\/p>\n Import-dependent markets could drive the next increase in demand<\/strong><\/p>\n China's softwood lumber consumption has declined since 2017 following the deterioration of its property market. The downturn in residential construction has reduced demand for imported lumber, while the country's real estate sector continues to face considerable difficulties. A gradual recovery in consumption is possible after 2027, although a rapid return to previous peak levels is not expected in the underlying forecast.<\/p>\n Stronger long-term growth could come from India, Vietnam and countries across the Middle East and North Africa. These markets have relatively limited domestic coniferous forest resources, meaning that additional demand for softwood lumber would largely depend on imports.<\/p>\n Their growing importance could change international trade flows, creating opportunities for European and North American exporters. Competition will depend on freight costs, product specifications, currency movements and local construction requirements. Markets traditionally supplied by Nordic or Central European producers could increasingly attract exporters from North America and the Southern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n The geographical distribution of demand will therefore matter as much as its total growth. A recovery in global consumption does not guarantee stronger sales for every producing region, particularly where high raw material costs make lumber less competitive.<\/p>\n Europe risks losing sawmill capacity before demand recovers<\/strong><\/p>\n One of the more serious consequences of the current downturn is the possibility that European sawmill capacity could contract before construction activity improves. Closures are often presented as responses to temporary market conditions, but reopening a mill requires more than stronger lumber prices. Companies need workers, financing, customers and dependable raw material supplies. Once equipment has been sold and procurement networks dismantled, restarting production can become economically unattractive.<\/p>\n The consequences extend beyond the sawmill sector. Lower lumber production also reduces the availability of wood chips, sawdust and other by-products used by pulp, panel and energy producers. A contraction in sawmilling can therefore affect raw material flows throughout the wood-processing industry, even in countries where forest resources remain substantial.<\/p>\n There is also a potential trade consequence. Europe could retain extensive forest resources while becoming more dependent on imported lumber if domestic processing becomes less competitive. Additional production from the United States or other exporting regions could meet part of European demand, but the associated industrial investment and value creation would increasingly take place elsewhere.<\/p>\n This outcome is not inevitable. European producers retain advantages in product quality, specialised manufacturing, established customer relationships and proximity to important construction markets. Nevertheless, these advantages depend on obtaining suitable logs at prices that allow mills to compete internationally.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n The next recovery may not benefit every sawmill<\/strong><\/p>\n The projected increase of 22 million m\u00b3 in global softwood lumber demand by 2030 should not be interpreted as a guarantee of higher prices or improved profitability across the industry. Existing sawmills have unused capacity, construction could recover more slowly than expected, and new investments may increase production in regions with abundant raw material.<\/p>\n The market could also remain oversupplied in certain products while individual regions experience shortages of suitable logs. Southern Yellow Pine production may expand considerably without fully replacing European spruce in applications requiring particular dimensions, strength grades or technical specifications.<\/p>\n The differences between producing regions are becoming more pronounced. British Columbia faces declining economically accessible timber supplies, Central Europe is approaching the end of exceptional salvage harvesting, and Nordic producers are dealing with high procurement costs and constraints on additional harvesting. The southern United States has considerably more room to expand, although investment and infrastructure requirements will determine the pace of growth.<\/p>\n For European sawmills, the immediate problem remains insufficient demand. But a recovery in construction will not restore damaged forests, reverse permanent mill closures or automatically reduce sawlog prices. Some producers could find themselves selling more lumber while continuing to struggle with profitability.<\/p>\n The greater risk is that Europe spends the downturn reducing its industrial capacity, only to discover during the next recovery that a growing share of demand must be supplied by producers elsewhere. The question is no longer simply how much softwood lumber the world will need by 2030, but where it can still be produced competitively \u2014 and how much of Europe's sawmill industry will remain in place to supply it.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Global softwood lumber demand could reach 335 million m\u00b3 by 2030, requiring an estimated 22 million m\u00b3 of additional supply. Yet some of the world’s traditional producing regions are losing access to the timber needed to meet that demand. Canadian … Continue reading
![<\/a><\/p>\nCanada continues to lose production capacity<\/strong><\/p>\nCanada's declining production is one of the most significant structural changes in the international softwood lumber market. British Columbia has suffered from mountain pine beetle infestations, forest fires and years of intensive harvesting, leaving sawmills with a smaller and increasingly expensive timber resource. Lumber production in the province has fallen by approximately half compared with 2017, while numerous mills have closed, reduced shifts or permanently withdrawn capacity.<\/p>\nUS tariffs have made the situation more difficult, but they are not the principal explanation for the decline in timber availability. Even without trade restrictions, many British Columbia sawmills would face higher procurement costs and reduced access to economically harvestable forests. The industry has also been affected by transportation expenses, labour costs and the need to process timber from increasingly distant harvesting areas.<\/p>\nCanadian producers have consequently directed considerable investment towards the southern United States. Several major forestry groups now operate substantial production capacity south of the border, where pine resources are more abundant and opportunities for industrial expansion are greater. Efforts to diversify Canadian lumber exports towards Asia and Europe have faced additional difficulties, including freight costs, product dimensions and differences in customer requirements.<\/p>\nBritish Columbia will remain an important producing region, but a rapid return to its previous production levels appears unlikely. The decline has implications beyond Canada, particularly for the United States, which has traditionally relied heavily on Canadian softwood lumber imports.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nUS South offers the strongest potential for expansion<\/strong><\/p>\nThe southern United States has become the principal destination for new North American sawmill investment. The region has extensive commercially managed pine forests, a large private forest ownership base and substantial potential to increase timber harvesting. Logging is estimated to account for approximately 65% of annual biological growth in southern pine forests, meaning that standing timber inventories continue to increase.<\/p>\nThe US South overtook Canada in softwood lumber production capacity in 2022. Investment by American, Canadian and European forest industry companies has brought new mills, modern processing equipment and additional production capacity to the region. Southern Yellow Pine has consequently become increasingly important to the North American lumber market.<\/p>\nFurther growth, however, depends on more than the availability of standing timber. Forest ownership is fragmented, and the commercial supply of logs depends on landowners' willingness to harvest. Logging contractors, truck drivers and skilled industrial workers are not available in unlimited numbers, while transport distances can determine whether a particular forest resource is economically attractive.<\/p>\nNew sawmills also require dependable procurement arrangements. A large biological surplus may exist at regional level without guaranteeing sufficient timber at competitive prices within the operating radius of an individual mill. Nevertheless, the US South is expected to provide much of the additional softwood lumber required by the global market before 2030.<\/p>\nThe implications for European producers are considerable. While several European sawmills are struggling with expensive logs and declining profitability, competitors in the southern United States are investing in modern capacity close to expanding pine resources. The difference is not simply one of technology or labour costs. Raw material availability is increasingly influencing where companies choose to invest.<\/p>\nCentral Europe's exceptional timber supply is coming to an end<\/strong><\/p>\nEuropean sawmills have benefited from unusually large volumes of damaged spruce timber following successive periods of drought and bark beetle infestation. In Germany, the Czech Republic and neighbouring countries, extensive salvage harvesting brought additional logs onto the market and temporarily increased the supply available to processors.<\/p>\nAnnual harvesting in Central Europe increased from approximately 158 million m\u00b3 during 2010\u20132017 to around 183 million m\u00b3 during 2018\u20132021, according to the estimates cited in the underlying analysis. This represented an additional 25 million m\u00b3 annually during the period of extensive forest damage. For some sawmills, the exceptional availability of salvage timber supported production and exports, even as forest owners faced substantial losses.<\/p>\nThat supply is now diminishing. As damaged stands are cleared, replacement forests remain decades away from producing commercial sawlogs. Climate change is also affecting the future distribution of Norway spruce, particularly in lower-altitude areas exposed to drought and higher temperatures.<\/p>\nForest owners are increasingly being encouraged to diversify species and establish stands better suited to changing climatic conditions. These measures may improve long-term forest health, but they also create uncertainty for sawmills designed around spruce processing. Different species require different equipment settings, grading systems and product applications, while structural timber markets cannot always accommodate substitution without changes to technical standards.<\/p>\nThe consequences could become particularly important during the next recovery in European construction. Sawmills that previously relied on large volumes of salvage spruce may find themselves competing for a smaller supply of fresh logs, potentially at considerably higher prices.<\/p>\nEurope has more forests, but not necessarily more sawlogs<\/strong><\/p>\nEurope's forest resources have continued to expand over the past three decades. According to the State of Europe's Forests 2025 report, published by FOREST EUROPE in March 2026, forest area has increased by approximately 11% since 1990, reaching around 232 million hectares. Standing timber volume has risen by approximately 45% over the same period, while annual fellings represent around 81% of net forest growth at the pan-European level.<\/p>\nThese figures show that Europe's forests are accumulating wood, but they do not establish how much of that resource is available to the sawmill industry. Growing inventories may include hardwoods, younger stands, protected forests or timber located too far from existing infrastructure to be harvested economically. The species, quality, dimensions and location of the resource are often more important to a sawmill than the total volume standing in a country's forests.<\/p>\nForest policy adds another consideration. European governments are seeking to reconcile timber harvesting with biodiversity protection, carbon accounting and forest restoration requirements. In Finland and Sweden, discussions surrounding forest carbon sinks and land-use commitments have increased scrutiny of future harvesting levels.<\/p>\nThe impact will depend on national decisions and how regulations are implemented. Nevertheless, Europe's ability to increase softwood lumber production cannot be assessed solely from forest growth statistics. A larger forest resource does not automatically provide the industry with more commercially available spruce and pine logs.<\/p>\nNordic producers retain an advantage, but face expensive raw material<\/strong><\/p>\nFinland and Sweden occupy an important position in the European softwood lumber market. Their forests contain substantial quantities of spruce and pine, supported by established harvesting systems, transport infrastructure and export-oriented sawmill industries. Nordic producers also have extensive experience manufacturing structural, joinery and other higher-grade lumber products for international customers.<\/p>\nAs Central Europe's supply of suitable spruce declines, the commercial importance of Nordic raw material could increase. However, additional harvesting cannot simply be assumed. Existing industrial demand, forest management policies and environmental requirements all influence the volumes that can be brought onto the market.<\/p>\nHigh sawlog prices have already become a serious problem for Nordic sawmills. Several producers have faced rising procurement costs despite weak demand for finished lumber, leaving little opportunity to pass higher costs on to customers. The resulting pressure on margins has contributed to production reductions and difficult investment decisions.<\/p>\nThis situation challenges the assumption that countries with extensive forest resources will necessarily remain the most competitive lumber producers. A modern sawmill can improve efficiency, reduce labour requirements and increase recovery rates, but these advantages have limits when raw material prices rise faster than finished product prices.<\/p>\nFor GWMI, the question is whether Nordic producers can maintain their position in international markets if sawlog costs remain elevated. Access to high-quality timber remains an advantage, but the price paid for that timber will increasingly determine the profitability of processing it.<\/p>\nRussia has vast resources but limited ability to expand exports<\/strong><\/p>\nRussia possesses some of the world's largest coniferous forest resources, although a considerable proportion is located far from established industrial facilities, transport networks and export ports. Expanding production would require major investment in forest roads, railways, harvesting equipment and sawmill capacity.<\/p>\nSanctions, restrictions on financing and technology, and Russian timber export policies further complicate the situation. Before the restrictions introduced in 2022, China imported approximately 2.6 million m\u00b3 of softwood logs annually from Russia, according to the figures cited in the source analysis. Russia remains an important supplier of sawn timber to the Chinese market, but increasing production substantially would require overcoming significant infrastructure and investment constraints.<\/p>\nFor European buyers, Russian timber cannot be treated as a readily available alternative to domestic or Nordic supplies under current trade restrictions. The country's extensive forest resources therefore offer little immediate relief to European sawmills facing tighter raw material conditions.<\/p>\nSouthern Hemisphere cannot quickly replace lost production<\/strong><\/p>\nNew Zealand, Chile and Brazil are established participants in international softwood markets, but expanding their production sufficiently to compensate for declining supply elsewhere would take time. Plantation forestry requires long investment periods, and new forests established today will not produce mature sawlogs for many years.<\/p>\nThe underlying analysis indicates that softwood plantation areas have expanded only modestly in Brazil and New Zealand since 2000, while declining in Chile. Much of the forestry investment in South America and Asia has also concentrated on hardwood plantations, particularly eucalyptus, rather than species traditionally used for structural softwood lumber.<\/p>\nProduct differences create further limitations. Radiata pine, Southern Yellow Pine, Nordic spruce and Canadian SPF are all commercially important softwoods, but they cannot replace one another in every application. Strength grading, treatment requirements, dimensions and building standards influence which species can be used, particularly in structural construction.<\/p>\nThese differences do not prevent substitution, but they can make it expensive and time-consuming. Importers and manufacturers may need to adapt processing methods, specifications or product approvals before alternative timber can be used at scale.<\/p>\nImport-dependent markets could drive the next increase in demand<\/strong><\/p>\nChina's softwood lumber consumption has declined since 2017 following the deterioration of its property market. The downturn in residential construction has reduced demand for imported lumber, while the country's real estate sector continues to face considerable difficulties. A gradual recovery in consumption is possible after 2027, although a rapid return to previous peak levels is not expected in the underlying forecast.<\/p>\nStronger long-term growth could come from India, Vietnam and countries across the Middle East and North Africa. These markets have relatively limited domestic coniferous forest resources, meaning that additional demand for softwood lumber would largely depend on imports.<\/p>\nTheir growing importance could change international trade flows, creating opportunities for European and North American exporters. Competition will depend on freight costs, product specifications, currency movements and local construction requirements. Markets traditionally supplied by Nordic or Central European producers could increasingly attract exporters from North America and the Southern Hemisphere.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of demand will therefore matter as much as its total growth. A recovery in global consumption does not guarantee stronger sales for every producing region, particularly where high raw material costs make lumber less competitive.<\/p>\nEurope risks losing sawmill capacity before demand recovers<\/strong><\/p>\nOne of the more serious consequences of the current downturn is the possibility that European sawmill capacity could contract before construction activity improves. Closures are often presented as responses to temporary market conditions, but reopening a mill requires more than stronger lumber prices. Companies need workers, financing, customers and dependable raw material supplies. Once equipment has been sold and procurement networks dismantled, restarting production can become economically unattractive.<\/p>\nThe consequences extend beyond the sawmill sector. Lower lumber production also reduces the availability of wood chips, sawdust and other by-products used by pulp, panel and energy producers. A contraction in sawmilling can therefore affect raw material flows throughout the wood-processing industry, even in countries where forest resources remain substantial.<\/p>\nThere is also a potential trade consequence. Europe could retain extensive forest resources while becoming more dependent on imported lumber if domestic processing becomes less competitive. Additional production from the United States or other exporting regions could meet part of European demand, but the associated industrial investment and value creation would increasingly take place elsewhere.<\/p>\nThis outcome is not inevitable. European producers retain advantages in product quality, specialised manufacturing, established customer relationships and proximity to important construction markets. Nevertheless, these advantages depend on obtaining suitable logs at prices that allow mills to compete internationally.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe next recovery may not benefit every sawmill<\/strong><\/p>\nThe projected increase of 22 million m\u00b3 in global softwood lumber demand by 2030 should not be interpreted as a guarantee of higher prices or improved profitability across the industry. Existing sawmills have unused capacity, construction could recover more slowly than expected, and new investments may increase production in regions with abundant raw material.<\/p>\nThe market could also remain oversupplied in certain products while individual regions experience shortages of suitable logs. Southern Yellow Pine production may expand considerably without fully replacing European spruce in applications requiring particular dimensions, strength grades or technical specifications.<\/p>\nThe differences between producing regions are becoming more pronounced. British Columbia faces declining economically accessible timber supplies, Central Europe is approaching the end of exceptional salvage harvesting, and Nordic producers are dealing with high procurement costs and constraints on additional harvesting. The southern United States has considerably more room to expand, although investment and infrastructure requirements will determine the pace of growth.<\/p>\nFor European sawmills, the immediate problem remains insufficient demand. But a recovery in construction will not restore damaged forests, reverse permanent mill closures or automatically reduce sawlog prices. Some producers could find themselves selling more lumber while continuing to struggle with profitability.<\/p>\nThe greater risk is that Europe spends the downturn reducing its industrial capacity, only to discover during the next recovery that a growing share of demand must be supplied by producers elsewhere. The question is no longer simply how much softwood lumber the world will need by 2030, but where it can still be produced competitively \u2014 and how much of Europe's sawmill industry will remain in place to supply it.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Global softwood lumber demand could reach 335 million m\u00b3 by 2030, requiring an estimated 22 million m\u00b3 of additional supply. Yet some of the world’s traditional producing regions are losing access to the timber needed to meet that demand. Canadian … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100295,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA global lumber recovery could expose Europe\u2019s growing sawlog shortage - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A global lumber recovery could expose Europe\u2019s growing sawlog shortage - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global softwood lumber demand could reach 335 million m\u00b3 by 2030, requiring an estimated 22 million m\u00b3 of additional supply. Yet some of the world's traditional producing regions are losing access to the timber needed to meet that demand. Canadian … Continue reading →\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-14T05:10:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-14T19:59:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"665\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"443\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"GWMI Admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Scris de\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"GWMI Admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Timp estimat pentru citire\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"14 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"GWMI Admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff\"},\"headline\":\"A global lumber recovery could expose Europe\u2019s growing sawlog shortage\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-14T05:10:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-10-14T19:59:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\"},\"wordCount\":2728,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Daily News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"ro-RO\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\",\"name\":\"A global lumber recovery could expose Europe\u2019s growing sawlog shortage - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nUS South offers the strongest potential for expansion<\/strong><\/p>\nThe southern United States has become the principal destination for new North American sawmill investment. The region has extensive commercially managed pine forests, a large private forest ownership base and substantial potential to increase timber harvesting. Logging is estimated to account for approximately 65% of annual biological growth in southern pine forests, meaning that standing timber inventories continue to increase.<\/p>\nThe US South overtook Canada in softwood lumber production capacity in 2022. Investment by American, Canadian and European forest industry companies has brought new mills, modern processing equipment and additional production capacity to the region. Southern Yellow Pine has consequently become increasingly important to the North American lumber market.<\/p>\nFurther growth, however, depends on more than the availability of standing timber. Forest ownership is fragmented, and the commercial supply of logs depends on landowners' willingness to harvest. Logging contractors, truck drivers and skilled industrial workers are not available in unlimited numbers, while transport distances can determine whether a particular forest resource is economically attractive.<\/p>\nNew sawmills also require dependable procurement arrangements. A large biological surplus may exist at regional level without guaranteeing sufficient timber at competitive prices within the operating radius of an individual mill. Nevertheless, the US South is expected to provide much of the additional softwood lumber required by the global market before 2030.<\/p>\nThe implications for European producers are considerable. While several European sawmills are struggling with expensive logs and declining profitability, competitors in the southern United States are investing in modern capacity close to expanding pine resources. The difference is not simply one of technology or labour costs. Raw material availability is increasingly influencing where companies choose to invest.<\/p>\nCentral Europe's exceptional timber supply is coming to an end<\/strong><\/p>\nEuropean sawmills have benefited from unusually large volumes of damaged spruce timber following successive periods of drought and bark beetle infestation. In Germany, the Czech Republic and neighbouring countries, extensive salvage harvesting brought additional logs onto the market and temporarily increased the supply available to processors.<\/p>\nAnnual harvesting in Central Europe increased from approximately 158 million m\u00b3 during 2010\u20132017 to around 183 million m\u00b3 during 2018\u20132021, according to the estimates cited in the underlying analysis. This represented an additional 25 million m\u00b3 annually during the period of extensive forest damage. For some sawmills, the exceptional availability of salvage timber supported production and exports, even as forest owners faced substantial losses.<\/p>\nThat supply is now diminishing. As damaged stands are cleared, replacement forests remain decades away from producing commercial sawlogs. Climate change is also affecting the future distribution of Norway spruce, particularly in lower-altitude areas exposed to drought and higher temperatures.<\/p>\nForest owners are increasingly being encouraged to diversify species and establish stands better suited to changing climatic conditions. These measures may improve long-term forest health, but they also create uncertainty for sawmills designed around spruce processing. Different species require different equipment settings, grading systems and product applications, while structural timber markets cannot always accommodate substitution without changes to technical standards.<\/p>\nThe consequences could become particularly important during the next recovery in European construction. Sawmills that previously relied on large volumes of salvage spruce may find themselves competing for a smaller supply of fresh logs, potentially at considerably higher prices.<\/p>\nEurope has more forests, but not necessarily more sawlogs<\/strong><\/p>\nEurope's forest resources have continued to expand over the past three decades. According to the State of Europe's Forests 2025 report, published by FOREST EUROPE in March 2026, forest area has increased by approximately 11% since 1990, reaching around 232 million hectares. Standing timber volume has risen by approximately 45% over the same period, while annual fellings represent around 81% of net forest growth at the pan-European level.<\/p>\nThese figures show that Europe's forests are accumulating wood, but they do not establish how much of that resource is available to the sawmill industry. Growing inventories may include hardwoods, younger stands, protected forests or timber located too far from existing infrastructure to be harvested economically. The species, quality, dimensions and location of the resource are often more important to a sawmill than the total volume standing in a country's forests.<\/p>\nForest policy adds another consideration. European governments are seeking to reconcile timber harvesting with biodiversity protection, carbon accounting and forest restoration requirements. In Finland and Sweden, discussions surrounding forest carbon sinks and land-use commitments have increased scrutiny of future harvesting levels.<\/p>\nThe impact will depend on national decisions and how regulations are implemented. Nevertheless, Europe's ability to increase softwood lumber production cannot be assessed solely from forest growth statistics. A larger forest resource does not automatically provide the industry with more commercially available spruce and pine logs.<\/p>\nNordic producers retain an advantage, but face expensive raw material<\/strong><\/p>\nFinland and Sweden occupy an important position in the European softwood lumber market. Their forests contain substantial quantities of spruce and pine, supported by established harvesting systems, transport infrastructure and export-oriented sawmill industries. Nordic producers also have extensive experience manufacturing structural, joinery and other higher-grade lumber products for international customers.<\/p>\nAs Central Europe's supply of suitable spruce declines, the commercial importance of Nordic raw material could increase. However, additional harvesting cannot simply be assumed. Existing industrial demand, forest management policies and environmental requirements all influence the volumes that can be brought onto the market.<\/p>\nHigh sawlog prices have already become a serious problem for Nordic sawmills. Several producers have faced rising procurement costs despite weak demand for finished lumber, leaving little opportunity to pass higher costs on to customers. The resulting pressure on margins has contributed to production reductions and difficult investment decisions.<\/p>\nThis situation challenges the assumption that countries with extensive forest resources will necessarily remain the most competitive lumber producers. A modern sawmill can improve efficiency, reduce labour requirements and increase recovery rates, but these advantages have limits when raw material prices rise faster than finished product prices.<\/p>\nFor GWMI, the question is whether Nordic producers can maintain their position in international markets if sawlog costs remain elevated. Access to high-quality timber remains an advantage, but the price paid for that timber will increasingly determine the profitability of processing it.<\/p>\nRussia has vast resources but limited ability to expand exports<\/strong><\/p>\nRussia possesses some of the world's largest coniferous forest resources, although a considerable proportion is located far from established industrial facilities, transport networks and export ports. Expanding production would require major investment in forest roads, railways, harvesting equipment and sawmill capacity.<\/p>\nSanctions, restrictions on financing and technology, and Russian timber export policies further complicate the situation. Before the restrictions introduced in 2022, China imported approximately 2.6 million m\u00b3 of softwood logs annually from Russia, according to the figures cited in the source analysis. Russia remains an important supplier of sawn timber to the Chinese market, but increasing production substantially would require overcoming significant infrastructure and investment constraints.<\/p>\nFor European buyers, Russian timber cannot be treated as a readily available alternative to domestic or Nordic supplies under current trade restrictions. The country's extensive forest resources therefore offer little immediate relief to European sawmills facing tighter raw material conditions.<\/p>\nSouthern Hemisphere cannot quickly replace lost production<\/strong><\/p>\nNew Zealand, Chile and Brazil are established participants in international softwood markets, but expanding their production sufficiently to compensate for declining supply elsewhere would take time. Plantation forestry requires long investment periods, and new forests established today will not produce mature sawlogs for many years.<\/p>\nThe underlying analysis indicates that softwood plantation areas have expanded only modestly in Brazil and New Zealand since 2000, while declining in Chile. Much of the forestry investment in South America and Asia has also concentrated on hardwood plantations, particularly eucalyptus, rather than species traditionally used for structural softwood lumber.<\/p>\nProduct differences create further limitations. Radiata pine, Southern Yellow Pine, Nordic spruce and Canadian SPF are all commercially important softwoods, but they cannot replace one another in every application. Strength grading, treatment requirements, dimensions and building standards influence which species can be used, particularly in structural construction.<\/p>\nThese differences do not prevent substitution, but they can make it expensive and time-consuming. Importers and manufacturers may need to adapt processing methods, specifications or product approvals before alternative timber can be used at scale.<\/p>\nImport-dependent markets could drive the next increase in demand<\/strong><\/p>\nChina's softwood lumber consumption has declined since 2017 following the deterioration of its property market. The downturn in residential construction has reduced demand for imported lumber, while the country's real estate sector continues to face considerable difficulties. A gradual recovery in consumption is possible after 2027, although a rapid return to previous peak levels is not expected in the underlying forecast.<\/p>\nStronger long-term growth could come from India, Vietnam and countries across the Middle East and North Africa. These markets have relatively limited domestic coniferous forest resources, meaning that additional demand for softwood lumber would largely depend on imports.<\/p>\nTheir growing importance could change international trade flows, creating opportunities for European and North American exporters. Competition will depend on freight costs, product specifications, currency movements and local construction requirements. Markets traditionally supplied by Nordic or Central European producers could increasingly attract exporters from North America and the Southern Hemisphere.<\/p>\nThe geographical distribution of demand will therefore matter as much as its total growth. A recovery in global consumption does not guarantee stronger sales for every producing region, particularly where high raw material costs make lumber less competitive.<\/p>\nEurope risks losing sawmill capacity before demand recovers<\/strong><\/p>\nOne of the more serious consequences of the current downturn is the possibility that European sawmill capacity could contract before construction activity improves. Closures are often presented as responses to temporary market conditions, but reopening a mill requires more than stronger lumber prices. Companies need workers, financing, customers and dependable raw material supplies. Once equipment has been sold and procurement networks dismantled, restarting production can become economically unattractive.<\/p>\nThe consequences extend beyond the sawmill sector. Lower lumber production also reduces the availability of wood chips, sawdust and other by-products used by pulp, panel and energy producers. A contraction in sawmilling can therefore affect raw material flows throughout the wood-processing industry, even in countries where forest resources remain substantial.<\/p>\nThere is also a potential trade consequence. Europe could retain extensive forest resources while becoming more dependent on imported lumber if domestic processing becomes less competitive. Additional production from the United States or other exporting regions could meet part of European demand, but the associated industrial investment and value creation would increasingly take place elsewhere.<\/p>\nThis outcome is not inevitable. European producers retain advantages in product quality, specialised manufacturing, established customer relationships and proximity to important construction markets. Nevertheless, these advantages depend on obtaining suitable logs at prices that allow mills to compete internationally.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\nThe next recovery may not benefit every sawmill<\/strong><\/p>\nThe projected increase of 22 million m\u00b3 in global softwood lumber demand by 2030 should not be interpreted as a guarantee of higher prices or improved profitability across the industry. Existing sawmills have unused capacity, construction could recover more slowly than expected, and new investments may increase production in regions with abundant raw material.<\/p>\nThe market could also remain oversupplied in certain products while individual regions experience shortages of suitable logs. Southern Yellow Pine production may expand considerably without fully replacing European spruce in applications requiring particular dimensions, strength grades or technical specifications.<\/p>\nThe differences between producing regions are becoming more pronounced. British Columbia faces declining economically accessible timber supplies, Central Europe is approaching the end of exceptional salvage harvesting, and Nordic producers are dealing with high procurement costs and constraints on additional harvesting. The southern United States has considerably more room to expand, although investment and infrastructure requirements will determine the pace of growth.<\/p>\nFor European sawmills, the immediate problem remains insufficient demand. But a recovery in construction will not restore damaged forests, reverse permanent mill closures or automatically reduce sawlog prices. Some producers could find themselves selling more lumber while continuing to struggle with profitability.<\/p>\nThe greater risk is that Europe spends the downturn reducing its industrial capacity, only to discover during the next recovery that a growing share of demand must be supplied by producers elsewhere. The question is no longer simply how much softwood lumber the world will need by 2030, but where it can still be produced competitively \u2014 and how much of Europe's sawmill industry will remain in place to supply it.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Global softwood lumber demand could reach 335 million m\u00b3 by 2030, requiring an estimated 22 million m\u00b3 of additional supply. Yet some of the world’s traditional producing regions are losing access to the timber needed to meet that demand. Canadian … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100295,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA global lumber recovery could expose Europe\u2019s growing sawlog shortage - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A global lumber recovery could expose Europe\u2019s growing sawlog shortage - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global softwood lumber demand could reach 335 million m\u00b3 by 2030, requiring an estimated 22 million m\u00b3 of additional supply. Yet some of the world's traditional producing regions are losing access to the timber needed to meet that demand. Canadian … Continue reading →\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-14T05:10:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-14T19:59:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"665\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"443\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"GWMI Admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Scris de\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"GWMI Admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Timp estimat pentru citire\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"14 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"GWMI Admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#\/schema\/person\/135a1ae8119d1d1755135add5b7287ff\"},\"headline\":\"A global lumber recovery could expose Europe\u2019s growing sawlog shortage\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-14T05:10:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-10-14T19:59:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\"},\"wordCount\":2728,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Daily News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"ro-RO\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\",\"name\":\"A global lumber recovery could expose Europe\u2019s growing sawlog shortage - 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![<\/a><\/p>\nThe next recovery may not benefit every sawmill<\/strong><\/p>\nThe projected increase of 22 million m\u00b3 in global softwood lumber demand by 2030 should not be interpreted as a guarantee of higher prices or improved profitability across the industry. Existing sawmills have unused capacity, construction could recover more slowly than expected, and new investments may increase production in regions with abundant raw material.<\/p>\nThe market could also remain oversupplied in certain products while individual regions experience shortages of suitable logs. Southern Yellow Pine production may expand considerably without fully replacing European spruce in applications requiring particular dimensions, strength grades or technical specifications.<\/p>\nThe differences between producing regions are becoming more pronounced. British Columbia faces declining economically accessible timber supplies, Central Europe is approaching the end of exceptional salvage harvesting, and Nordic producers are dealing with high procurement costs and constraints on additional harvesting. The southern United States has considerably more room to expand, although investment and infrastructure requirements will determine the pace of growth.<\/p>\nFor European sawmills, the immediate problem remains insufficient demand. But a recovery in construction will not restore damaged forests, reverse permanent mill closures or automatically reduce sawlog prices. Some producers could find themselves selling more lumber while continuing to struggle with profitability.<\/p>\nThe greater risk is that Europe spends the downturn reducing its industrial capacity, only to discover during the next recovery that a growing share of demand must be supplied by producers elsewhere. The question is no longer simply how much softwood lumber the world will need by 2030, but where it can still be produced competitively \u2014 and how much of Europe's sawmill industry will remain in place to supply it.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Global softwood lumber demand could reach 335 million m\u00b3 by 2030, requiring an estimated 22 million m\u00b3 of additional supply. Yet some of the world’s traditional producing regions are losing access to the timber needed to meet that demand. Canadian … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100295,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nA global lumber recovery could expose Europe\u2019s growing sawlog shortage - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/a-global-lumber-recovery-could-expose-europes-growing-sawlog-shortage\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A global lumber recovery could expose Europe\u2019s growing sawlog shortage - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global softwood lumber demand could reach 335 million m\u00b3 by 2030, requiring an estimated 22 million m\u00b3 of additional supply. Yet some of the world's traditional producing regions are losing access to the timber needed to meet that demand. 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