{"id":100258,"date":"2026-10-13T01:54:52","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T01:54:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=100258"},"modified":"2026-10-13T19:59:44","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T19:59:44","slug":"forecast-finnish-sawmills-face-weak-export-demand-as-plywood-industry-prepares-for-growth-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/forecast-finnish-sawmills-face-weak-export-demand-as-plywood-industry-prepares-for-growth-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast: Finnish sawmills face weak export demand as plywood industry prepares for growth"},"content":{"rendered":"

Finland's wood products industry is heading towards the end of 2026 with contrasting prospects for sawmills and panel manufacturers. Weak construction activity, higher logistics costs and difficult conditions in overseas markets continue to weigh on sawn timber exports, despite signs of improvement in parts of Europe. Producers are also facing changing trade patterns as international competitors seek new export destinations.<\/p>\n

The outlook for 2027 points to a gradual recovery, although growth is expected to remain uneven. Sawn timber production is unlikely to increase significantly, while plywood and engineered wood manufacturers are expected to benefit from stronger exports and additional production capacity. Raw material prices and the ability to maintain competitiveness abroad will remain important for both sectors.<\/p>\n

According to the autumn 2026 forest sector forecast published by Pellervo Economic Research (PTT), Finnish sawn timber export volumes are expected to decline by 1% this year, while average export prices increase by approximately 1%. Plywood exports, including LVL in the forecast's statistical classification, are projected to grow by 4%, with average prices rising by 1%. The forecast, published on October 8, was prepared by Matti Valonen, Marjo Maidell, Olli Korhonen and Paula Horne.<\/p>\n

Sawmills face weaker overseas markets and increasing competition<\/strong><\/p>\n

Finnish sawn timber exports declined by 4% during the first half of 2026, with the sharpest reductions recorded outside Europe. Shipments to the Middle East fell by 28%, reflecting the impact of regional conflict and disruptions to international trade routes. Exports to Asia declined by 14%, with both China and Japan purchasing less Finnish sawn timber.<\/p>\n

European demand provided some support. Exports to the region increased slightly as construction activity began to recover and sawlog supply constraints limited production among certain Central European competitors. Deliveries to North Africa also recorded modest growth, although neither market was able to compensate for the decline in Middle Eastern and Asian shipments.<\/p>\n

The changing competitive environment could create further difficulties for Finnish sawmills. Canadian lumber producers are seeking to diversify exports beyond the United States, potentially increasing the volumes available in Asian markets. This would intensify competition in China and Japan, where weak construction activity and limited housing growth are already restricting demand. Higher freight costs are adding pressure, particularly for exporters serving distant destinations.<\/p>\n

Finland's sawn timber production is forecast to decline by 2% in 2026, from approximately 11.7 million m\u00b3 in 2025. Domestic residential construction remains weak, while reduced exports have limited production requirements. Stora Enso's closure of its Kemi sawmill will also reduce national production capacity, with a greater effect expected in 2027.<\/p>\n

Despite the capacity reduction, the forecast does not anticipate a substantial improvement in sawmill profitability. Finished-product prices remain under pressure, and the gradual recovery in European demand is unlikely to produce an immediate improvement in margins.<\/p>\n

For 2027, PTT expects sawn timber export volumes to increase by 1% and average export prices by 2%. The improvement is expected to come mainly from European construction markets and a stabilisation of demand in the Middle East. Finnish sawn timber production, however, is forecast to remain unchanged from its 2026 level.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Plywood exports strengthen as production capacity changes<\/strong><\/p>\n

The plywood industry is developing differently. Finnish plywood exports increased by 10% during the first six months of 2026, including an almost 30% rise in birch plywood shipments. Softwood plywood exports increased by 4%.<\/p>\n

Part of the growth reflects the weak comparison period in 2025, when industrial action at UPM's plywood mills affected production. The recovery was particularly visible in birch plywood, where UPM represents a substantial share of Finnish output.<\/p>\n

Demand from LNG vessel construction has also supported birch plywood exports, while improving European construction activity has contributed to additional orders. Nevertheless, weak demand from the transport equipment industry continues to restrict certain plywood applications.<\/p>\n

Finnish producers have also benefited from EU anti-dumping duties on plywood imports from China and Brazil, improving their competitive position in European markets.<\/p>\n

PTT expects plywood export volumes to increase by 4% in 2026, with average export prices rising by 1%. Production is forecast to grow by 2%, reflecting changes in domestic capacity. Mets\u00e4 Group closed the softwood plywood production line at its Suolahti facility during the second quarter, limiting the increase in Finnish plywood output despite stronger export demand.<\/p>\n

Further changes are expected in 2027 as Mets\u00e4 Group's new laminated veneer lumber (LVL) facility in \u00c4\u00e4nekoski adds production capacity. LVL, manufactured from bonded wood veneers, is primarily used in structural construction and is included in the plywood category used by the forecast.<\/p>\n

The new capacity is expected to contribute to a further 4% increase in plywood exports in 2027, accompanied by a 2% increase in average export prices. Production is also forecast to rise by 4%.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Sawlog costs remain an important factor<\/strong><\/p>\n

Raw material costs continue to influence the competitiveness of Finnish sawmills. PTT expects average nominal sawlog stumpage prices to decline by 3% in 2026 before increasing by 2% in 2027. Although lower log prices could provide some relief, higher harvesting and transportation expenses, partly linked to fuel costs, continue to affect production economics.<\/p>\n

Private forest timber sales are forecast to increase by 2% this year and 12% in 2027 as procurement activity strengthens. Industrial wood consumption is expected to remain unchanged in 2026 before increasing by 1% next year.<\/p>\n

The forecasts suggest that additional timber trading activity will not necessarily translate into stronger sawmill production. For producers, the relationship between sawlog costs, export prices and demand remains central to profitability.<\/p>\n

The difference between the two main wood products sectors is expected to persist into 2027. Sawmills face another year of limited production growth and difficult export conditions, while plywood and LVL manufacturers are positioned for a more substantial increase in output. Much will depend on the pace of Europe's construction recovery and the ability of Finnish exporters to defend their positions in international markets.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Finland's wood products outlook, 2026\u20132027<\/caption>\n
Indicator<\/th>\n2026 forecast<\/th>\n2027 forecast<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
SAWN TIMBER<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Export volume<\/td>\n\u22121%<\/td>\n+1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average export prices<\/td>\n+1%<\/td>\n+2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Production volume<\/td>\n\u22122%<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PLYWOOD & LVL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Export volume<\/td>\n+4%<\/td>\n+4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Average export prices<\/td>\n+1%<\/td>\n+2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Production volume<\/td>\n+2%<\/td>\n+4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RAW MATERIALS<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sawlog stumpage prices<\/td>\n\u22123%<\/td>\n+2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Note: Annual percentage changes compared with the previous year.
\nPlywood figures include LVL under the forecast's statistical classification.<\/p>\n

Source: Pellervo Economic Research (PTT),
\nForest Sector Forecast, Autumn 2026.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Finland’s wood products industry is heading towards the end of 2026 with contrasting prospects for sawmills and panel manufacturers. Weak construction activity, higher logistics costs and difficult conditions in overseas markets continue to weigh on sawn timber exports, despite signs … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100260,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nForecast: Finnish sawmills face weak export demand as plywood industry prepares for growth - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/forecast-finnish-sawmills-face-weak-export-demand-as-plywood-industry-prepares-for-growth-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecast: Finnish sawmills face weak export demand as plywood industry prepares for growth - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Finland's wood products industry is heading towards the end of 2026 with contrasting prospects for sawmills and panel manufacturers. 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