{"id":100207,"date":"2026-10-08T14:04:29","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T14:04:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=100207"},"modified":"2026-10-08T19:39:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T19:39:50","slug":"us-hardwood-market-outlook-sawmill-closures-rising-log-exports-and-a-slow-recovery-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-hardwood-market-outlook-sawmill-closures-rising-log-exports-and-a-slow-recovery-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"US hardwood market outlook: sawmill closures, rising log exports and a slow recovery forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>American hardwood sawmills are facing more than a prolonged downturn. Export demand is moving towards logs, overseas processors are competing with lumber sawn from American timber, and domestic customers are buying less as housing activity and consumer confidence remain weak.<\/p>\n<p>At the 2026 National Hardwood Lumber Association Annual Convention &amp; Exhibit Showcase in Cleveland, market presentations showed how these pressures are changing the business for producers, exporters and manufacturers. Growth in selected destinations is helping, but it has not restored the lumber volumes lost since the first US\u2013China trade dispute in 2018.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Dan Meyer of Hardwood Review presented the clearest measure of that shift. In January\u2013July 2018, the United States exported 2.57 million m\u00b3 of hardwood lumber and 1.45 million m\u00b3 of hardwood logs. In the corresponding period of 2026, lumber shipments stood at 1.49 million m\u00b3 and logs at 1.43 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n<p>Lumber exports were therefore about 42% below the 2018 comparison, while log volumes were almost unchanged. Logs represented 49% of the combined export volume, up from 36%. The change was driven substantially by the loss of lumber business, rather than simply by an increase in raw material exports over that longer period.<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"margin: 24px 0; padding: 0 0 0 18px; border: 0; border-left: 2px solid #999; background: none; color: inherit;\">\n<p><em>\u201cSame volume, roughly the same volume of logs. But look at the difference in the percentage.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0 0; font-size: 12px !important; line-height: 1.4; font-weight: normal; color: #666;\">Dan Meyer, Hardwood Review, comparing January\u2013July log exports in 2018 and 2026<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><!-- INSERT IMAGE: 01_Export_Mix.png --><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_43752\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-43752\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/ushardwood-1.png\"><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-43752\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1. US hardwood lumber and log exports: annual trends and the January\u2013July export mix in 2018 and 2026. Logs increased from 36% to 49% of combined shipment volume as lumber exports contracted. Source: Dan Meyer, Hardwood Review, NHLA 2026; USITC and USDA FAS.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Mike Snow, executive director of the American Hardwood Export Council, examined the consequences for overseas sales. Connor Lokar of ITR Economics addressed the timing of a domestic recovery, while AHEC environmental policy director Rupert Oliver outlined the association\u2019s work on origin assurance and market access. Other sessions covered thermal modification, consumer promotion and sawmill energy costs.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size: 20px; margin: 30px 0 14px;\">Dan Meyer: the export balance moves towards logs<\/h2>\n<p>Meyer\u2019s data showed US hardwood log exports reaching approximately 1.271 million m\u00b3 in the first half of 2026. That was 31% above the first half of 2025 and 51% higher than the second half of last year. It was also only around 0.5% below the first-half record of 1.277 million m\u00b3 in 2018.<\/p>\n<p>His presentation projected full-year 2026 log exports to exceed the 2018 annual record by approximately 6%. That was a forecast presented at the convention, rather than a completed-year result.<\/p>\n<p>Vietnam accounted for much of the acceleration, alongside a recovery in Chinese purchasing following China\u2019s eight-month restriction on US log imports in 2025. Meyer\u2019s monthly comparison showed a sudden change in destinations when Chinese purchases fell: shipments to Vietnam increased rapidly.<\/p>\n<p>Some of the Vietnamese shipments in 2025 were likely transshipped to China, according to the presentation. However, Vietnam\u2019s purchasing continued to rise after Chinese demand rebounded, suggesting that the additional business was not confined to temporary rerouting.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT IMAGE: 02_Log_Exports.png --><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_43753\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-43753\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/UShardwood2.png\"><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-43753\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 2. US hardwood log exports by half-year, including shipments to China and Vietnam. First-half 2026 exports reached approximately 1.271 million m\u00b3, up 31% year on year. Source: Dan Meyer, Hardwood Review, NHLA 2026; USDA FAS.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Walnut attracted particular attention. Its share of US hardwood log export volume increased from around 8% in January\u2013July 2016 to approximately 32% in the same period of 2026. The slide described walnut log shipments as increasing by about 58% through July.<\/p>\n<p>An accompanying table put the walnut increase at 168,455 m\u00b3, rounded to 59%, compared with an increase of 189,151 m\u00b3, or 24%, for other species combined. Walnut was therefore a major part of the story, but other species collectively added more volume.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT IMAGE: 03_Vietnam_Walnut.png --><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_43754\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-43754\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/ushardwood3.png\"><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-43754\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 3. The shift in US hardwood log shipments between China and Vietnam, alongside the growing share of walnut in January\u2013July log exports. Source: Dan Meyer, Hardwood Review, NHLA 2026; USDA FAS.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The contrast with lumber was visible across species. Meyer\u2019s species comparison reported walnut lumber exports up 6%, poplar up 10% and maple approximately flat at +0.1%. Red oak declined 4%, white oak 3%, ash 12%, cherry 44% and birch 49%.<\/p>\n<p>On the log side, every species listed recorded growth: walnut 58%, red oak 36%, white oak 38%, birch 96%, maple 9%, cherry 145%, poplar 45% and ash 4%.<\/p>\n<p>The percentages describe very different starting volumes. A large percentage increase in a smaller species does not necessarily outweigh a moderate change in oak or walnut. Nevertheless, the direction of the comparison was consistent: the export market was absorbing more raw material while lumber producers faced a much less favourable pattern.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT IMAGE: 04_Species.png --><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_43755\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-43755\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/ushardwood4.png\"><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-43755\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 4. Year-on-year changes in US hardwood lumber and log export volumes by species. The slide heading refers to July, while the lumber chart\u2019s axis refers to June; original reporting labels are retained. Source: Dan Meyer, Hardwood Review, NHLA 2026; USITC.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 style=\"font-size: 20px; margin: 30px 0 14px;\">Mike Snow: US mills compete with their own raw material<\/h2>\n<p>Snow put the importance of international business in perspective: almost half of US grade hardwood lumber production is exported. Overseas sales have also been the part of the industry that has grown over the past two decades.<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"margin: 24px 0; padding: 0 0 0 18px; border: 0; border-left: 2px solid #999; background: none; color: inherit;\">\n<p><em>\u201cWe are competing against our own material in a lot of markets around the world.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0 0; font-size: 12px !important; line-height: 1.4; font-weight: normal; color: #666;\">Mike Snow, Executive Director, American Hardwood Export Council<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In the export-value ranking he presented, US hardwood logs shipped to Vietnam occupied the leading individual product-and-destination position. Lumber to China ranked next, followed by logs to China. Two of the three leading flows were therefore log shipments.<\/p>\n<p>Snow described an expansion of Vietnamese sawmills processing American logs and selling the resulting lumber into third markets. By the end of 2025, he said, Vietnam had exported more lumber manufactured from American walnut to China than the United States had shipped directly.<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"margin: 24px 0; padding: 0 0 0 18px; border: 0; border-left: 2px solid #999; background: none; color: inherit;\">\n<p><em>\u201cThey outsold us with our own material in our biggest market.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0 0; font-size: 12px !important; line-height: 1.4; font-weight: normal; color: #666;\">Mike Snow, on Vietnamese exports of lumber manufactured from American walnut to China<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He cautioned against explaining that development solely through subsidies or differences in regulation. Vietnamese processors were also cutting walnut to the sizes Chinese customers wanted, using metric measurements and specific dimensions rather than offering only random-width, random-length material.<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"margin: 24px 0; padding: 0 0 0 18px; border: 0; border-left: 2px solid #999; background: none; color: inherit;\">\n<p><em>\u201cThey\u2019re cutting to metric and they\u2019re cutting to specific sizes.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0 0; font-size: 12px !important; line-height: 1.4; font-weight: normal; color: #666;\">Mike Snow, Executive Director, American Hardwood Export Council<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Regional freight routes add another advantage. A Vietnamese processor selling into China operates much closer to the customer than an American mill shipping across the Pacific or from the US East Coast.<\/p>\n<p>Competition is also appearing elsewhere. Snow reported seeing Chinese companies offering American walnut lumber at the Dubai Wood Show. The origin of the tree does not determine which country captures the sawing and final lumber sale.<\/p>\n<p>For US sawmills, these developments place more emphasis on matching customer specifications and retaining processing value. Increasing total American wood exports can coexist with weaker business for the mills manufacturing lumber at home.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size: 20px; margin: 30px 0 14px;\">China remains essential, but its market has become smaller<\/h2>\n<p>China, Canada, Vietnam and Mexico together account for almost three-quarters of US hardwood lumber exports, Snow said. That concentration leaves the industry highly exposed to purchasing changes in a few destinations.<\/p>\n<p>His first-half assessment was that total export business was largely holding its ground. Within that total, US hardwood lumber volumes to China fell 11% year on year, while Vietnam grew by around 6%.<\/p>\n<p>Snow compared the American position before the first tariff dispute with the more recent Chinese market. The US had held approximately 30% of a market worth USD 4.4 billion; the newer comparison showed a share of around 19% in a market worth USD 2.8 billion.<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"margin: 24px 0; padding: 0 0 0 18px; border: 0; border-left: 2px solid #999; background: none; color: inherit;\">\n<p><em>\u201cWe\u2019ve got a smaller piece of a smaller pie.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0 0; font-size: 12px !important; line-height: 1.4; font-weight: normal; color: #666;\">Mike Snow, on the declining US share of China\u2019s hardwood import market<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Tariffs were a catalyst, but Snow argued that the decline could not be attributed to trade barriers alone. China\u2019s property downturn and weak domestic consumption had reduced demand for furniture, flooring and other hardwood products. Population ageing and demographic change add longer-term constraints.<\/p>\n<p>Much of the growth before 2018 had come from Chinese consumers buying finished products. It was not simply American wood being processed in China and returned to overseas buyers. Losing that domestic consumption means losing an end market, rather than merely following furniture production to another country.<\/p>\n<p>Exposure varies by species. Snow said China absorbs approximately 40% of American red oak exports, 30% of walnut exports and 90% of cherry exports. For cherry producers in particular, replacing that demand is a substantial task.<\/p>\n<p>Meyer\u2019s presentation reinforced the weak near-term picture. His slide described first-half US hardwood lumber exports to China as the lowest in 17 years and cited reports from US exporters that Chinese buyers were withholding orders in an attempt to obtain lower prices.<\/p>\n<p>The presentation also cited World Bank growth forecasts of 4.4% for China in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Those figures formed part of the outlook discussed at the convention; they were not evidence of a corresponding growth rate in hardwood demand.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size: 20px; margin: 30px 0 14px;\">Canada and Mexico: growth with commercial risks<\/h2>\n<p>Snow reported an 18% increase in the Canadian comparison for the first half, while Meyer\u2019s later presentation put US hardwood lumber shipments to Canada 8% ahead of 2025 through July. The different periods and presentation measures should be kept separate.<\/p>\n<p>Meyer warned that US tariffs affecting Canadian manufactured wood products could reduce Canadian manufacturers\u2019 demand for American lumber. His slide referenced a 50% tariff as part of the risk assessment presented at the event.<\/p>\n<p>The commercial mechanism is straightforward: Canadian processors buying American hardwood may sell finished products back to the United States. A barrier to those finished-product sales can weaken their purchasing of US raw material, even when the lumber itself is not the immediate target.<\/p>\n<p>Mexico also recorded growth in Snow\u2019s first-half data, approximately 7% by value and 5% by volume. However, total Mexican hardwood lumber imports increased by around 13%, meaning American suppliers were not capturing all of the market\u2019s expansion.<\/p>\n<p>The US supplies roughly 80% of Mexican hardwood lumber imports, Snow said. Malaysian timber sales to Mexico increased approximately 86%, while Brazilian hardwood exports rose around 60%. French suppliers were also gaining business in higher-end oak.<\/p>\n<p>Snow reported that some Mexican importers were actively seeking alternatives because of their perception of US trade policy.<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"margin: 24px 0; padding: 0 0 0 18px; border: 0; border-left: 2px solid #999; background: none; color: inherit;\">\n<p><em>\u201cIf we can find another supplier, we will.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0 0; font-size: 12px !important; line-height: 1.4; font-weight: normal; color: #666;\">A Mexican importer\u2019s comment, recalled by Mike Snow during his presentation<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Proximity and longstanding relationships remain valuable, but they do not eliminate the risk of substitution. Mexican customers can diversify their sourcing even while buying more American lumber in absolute terms.<\/p>\n<p>Meyer\u2019s longer-term chart added another qualification. Shipments to Mexico rose significantly after the pandemic as manufacturers reconsidered production locations and dependence on China. But demand in the most recent two years had fallen below typical levels in the late 2010s. The presentation also identified uncertainty surrounding the future of the USMCA framework.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_43756\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-43756\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/5.png\"><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-43756\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 5. Selected growing and declining markets for US hardwood lumber outside China, Canada, Vietnam and Mexico, by species and destination. Source: Dan Meyer, Hardwood Review, NHLA 2026; USITC and USDA FAS.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 style=\"font-size: 20px; margin: 30px 0 14px;\">Secondary destinations offer selective opportunities<\/h2>\n<p>Meyer\u2019s species-and-country charts showed where business was increasing outside the four largest destinations. They also demonstrated how narrow those opportunities remained.<\/p>\n<p>Among 508 species-market pairings, only 10 recorded January\u2013July shipment increases of at least the equivalent of roughly 1,180 m\u00b3 year on year, according to the threshold on his slide.<\/p>\n<p>White oak to Indonesia increased 73%, white oak to Italy 151% and white oak to India 48%. Red oak sales rose 62% to Turkey, 74% to Thailand and 78% to Sweden. Soft maple to Thailand increased 1,297%, ash to Turkey 56% and walnut to the UK 38%. Red oak to Syria also appeared among the expanding pairings, although the percentage label was not clearly readable in the supplied image.<\/p>\n<p>These figures identify opportunities rather than a general recovery across secondary markets. The soft maple increase to Thailand, for example, should be read with its starting volume in mind.<\/p>\n<p>The declining-market chart showed white oak to the UK down 23%, white oak to Japan 45%, red oak to Italy 35%, red oak to the UAE 47% and red oak to Lebanon 64%. Alder to Japan fell 76%, ash to Pakistan 69%, white oak to Norway 58%, red oak to Estonia 55% and red oak to Morocco 23%.<\/p>\n<p>Only 13 pairings outside the four largest destinations declined by more than the slide\u2019s approximately 1,180 m\u00b3 threshold through July. White oak to the UK was the only pairing to lose more than roughly 4,720 m\u00b3.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT IMAGE: 05_Secondary_Markets.png --><\/p>\n<p>Snow identified India as an important longer-term opportunity. US shipments increased approximately 13% in his first-half comparison, yet the American share of India\u2019s hardwood lumber imports was only around 3%.<\/p>\n<p>India is already a substantial importer. AHEC\u2019s task is to translate that demand into more purchases of American species through customer education, suitable specifications and practical applications. Snow pointed to the established trade in British willow for cricket bats as an example of imported hardwood finding a clearly defined use.<\/p>\n<p>He also warned that political and trade disputes could interrupt growth. A promising destination still requires management of customer and policy risks.<\/p>\n<p>In the Middle East, Snow described a sharp deterioration in the UAE and difficulty supplying Pakistan following conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Turkey was an exception, with growth of approximately 23% in the comparison he presented.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size: 20px; margin: 30px 0 14px;\">151 primary hardwood producers: auctions and closures across sawmills and yards<\/h2>\n<p>The export figures were accompanied by evidence of contraction within the American industry. Meyer mapped at least 151 publicly announced auctions and closures involving primary hardwood producers, a category covering sawmills and yards.<\/p>\n<p>A second map identified at least 95 announced auctions and closures involving secondary manufacturers, including cabinet, flooring and furniture businesses.<\/p>\n<p>The distinction matters: the 151 figure covers primary producers, including both sawmills and yards, rather than 151 confirmed sawmill shutdowns. The maps track announced auctions and closures, which do not all represent the same type or scale of capacity loss.<\/p>\n<p>Even with that qualification, the geographic spread was striking. The mapped events extended across the hardwood-producing regions and into the manufacturing centres that buy lumber from them.<\/p>\n<p>For sawmills, the loss of downstream customers can be as damaging as weaker export orders. A flooring plant, cabinet manufacturer or furniture producer leaving the market removes an outlet for particular species, grades and dimensions. Replacing that business may require a different product mix or customers further away.<\/p>\n<p>The contraction also places the growth in log exports in a different context. More raw material can leave the country while domestic processing businesses and their customers continue to shrink. The strength of one export category does not establish that the production chain is recovering.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT IMAGE: 06_Industry_Contraction.png --><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_43757\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-43757\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/ushardwood6.png\"><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-43757\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 6. Publicly announced auctions and closures mapped by Hardwood Review: at least 151 involving primary hardwood producers, including sawmills and yards, and 95 involving secondary manufacturers. Source: Dan Meyer, Hardwood Review, NHLA 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 style=\"font-size: 20px; margin: 30px 0 14px;\">Dan Meyer and Connor Lokar: weak demand, then a gradual recovery<\/h2>\n<p>Meyer\u2019s domestic-demand slides showed pressure from housing, purchasing power and confidence. January single-family housing starts were described as the weakest January in eight years, while July was the weakest July in a decade.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT IMAGE: 08_Housing_China.png --><\/p>\n<p>Consumer confidence had been declining from the post-pandemic rebound in mid-2021. His inflation comparison estimated that consumer prices were around 14% above the level they would have reached had inflation followed a 2% path.<\/p>\n<p>A slower rate of inflation does not undo those accumulated increases. Households still face higher costs when deciding whether to replace kitchens, flooring or furniture.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT IMAGE: 07_Consumer_Demand.png --><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_43760\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-43760\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/UShardwood8-1.png\"><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-43760\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 8. Demand conditions in two major hardwood markets: US single-family housing starts and the Chinese market outlook presented at the convention. Source: Dan Meyer, Hardwood Review, NHLA 2026; US Census Bureau and World Bank projections cited in the presentation.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Lokar\u2019s keynote addressed how long producers may have to operate in that environment. His forecast was for housing starts to finish 2026 down by a mid-to-high single-digit percentage and remain approximately flat in 2027.<\/p>\n<p>He expected further softness in millwork over the next several quarters, followed by improvement late next year. The stronger recovery year in his assessment was 2028.<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"margin: 24px 0; padding: 0 0 0 18px; border: 0; border-left: 2px solid #999; background: none; color: inherit;\">\n<p><em>\u201cMore of the same, not worse, but not dramatically better.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0 0; font-size: 12px !important; line-height: 1.4; font-weight: normal; color: #666;\">Connor Lokar, ITR Economics, on the nearer-term economic outlook<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Existing-home transactions were another constraint. Owners with low mortgage rates are reluctant to move and take on a more expensive loan. That reduces the turnover that often generates renovation purchases.<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"margin: 24px 0; padding: 0 0 0 18px; border: 0; border-left: 2px solid #999; background: none; color: inherit;\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe best possible thing that we can have is new eyes in an old house.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0 0; font-size: 12px !important; line-height: 1.4; font-weight: normal; color: #666;\">Connor Lokar, explaining the importance of home transactions to flooring, cabinet and furniture demand<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>There were signs of stabilisation. He pointed to housing permits, selected leading indicators, improving capacity-utilisation readings and progress in working down excess inventories. Some commercial sectors, including education, hospitals and multi-tenant retail, could perform better in 2027.<\/p>\n<p>His advice was to distinguish those opportunities from an expectation that the economy would lift every business at the same pace. Producers seeking faster growth would need to change products, customers or business strategy rather than rely entirely on a cyclical rebound.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size: 20px; margin: 30px 0 14px;\">Higher lumber prices have not kept pace with costs<\/h2>\n<p>Meyer\u2019s price comparison explained why nominal price increases have not necessarily improved sawmill profitability.<\/p>\n<p>Average hardwood lumber prices were approximately 86% above their Great Recession low and 35% higher than 20 years earlier. Adjusted for inflation, however, prices were 18% below the level of two decades ago and 8% below the 20-year average.<\/p>\n<p>Over the same 20-year comparison, consumer prices increased 64%, gas prices 56%, electricity 63% and unskilled wages 56%, according to his slide.<\/p>\n<p>The lumber-price index therefore rose more slowly than each of those cost measures. Individual mills have different energy, labour and raw material exposures, but the comparison helps explain the continued pressure on margins.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT IMAGE: 10_Prices_Costs.png --><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 8px 0 24px; font-size: 12px !important; line-height: 1.5; color: #666;\"><strong>Figure 10.<\/strong> Nominal and inflation-adjusted hardwood lumber price trends. Over 20 years, nominal prices increased 35%, while inflation-adjusted prices fell 18%; the presentation also compares increases in consumer prices, energy and wages. Source: Dan Meyer, Hardwood Review, NHLA 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Lokar made a related point in his economic assessment: a return to growth can still leave businesses struggling to convert additional revenue into earnings.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cProfitless prosperity\u201d was the phrase he used for the risk of rising activity accompanied by persistent cost pressure.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size: 20px; margin: 30px 0 14px;\">Rupert Oliver: origin assurance becomes part of the sales offer<\/h2>\n<p>Europe\u2019s role extends beyond direct purchases of American lumber. Snow put the EU and UK\u2019s combined share at approximately 13\u201314% of US hardwood lumber exports, but American material also reaches European consumers after processing in other countries.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturers in Vietnam, India, Turkey or the UK may therefore ask US suppliers for sourcing information because their finished products are destined for Europe.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_43761\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-43761\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/ushardwood9.png\"><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-43761\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 8. US hardwood lumber outlook. Source: Dan Meyer, Hardwood Review, NHLA 2026.Source: Dan Meyer, Hardwood Review, NHLA 2026; US Census Bureau and World Bank projections cited in the presentation.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Oliver presented the American Hardwood Assured programme as AHEC\u2019s response. It combines jurisdictional legality assessments, deforestation-risk analysis, satellite information and consignment documentation.<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"margin: 24px 0; padding: 0 0 0 18px; border: 0; border-left: 2px solid #999; background: none; color: inherit;\">\n<p><em>\u201cIt provides more than just compliance. It supports responsible sourcing. It provides market access.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0 0; font-size: 12px !important; line-height: 1.4; font-weight: normal; color: #666;\">Rupert Oliver, Environmental Policy Director, American Hardwood Export Council<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The programme\u2019s legality work covered 37 hardwood-producing states and 18 indicators. Oliver said the assessments found negligible illegality risk across that framework.<\/p>\n<p>AHEC is also developing remote detection of potential harvest sites and additional tools for overseas manufacturers handling material from multiple consignments. Those developments are intended to improve the information that can travel through an international processing chain.<\/p>\n<p>Snow and Oliver outlined scientific origin testing linked to a timber sample database and work with World Forest ID. Oliver described an initial collection of 400 samples from 100 forest sites, alongside plans for a denser sampling network.<\/p>\n<p>Further transaction-tracking and provenance capabilities were still being developed. They should be distinguished from the programme\u2019s existing services and from formal acceptance by individual regulators or procurement bodies.<\/p>\n<p>The commercial ambition is to improve access to projects that specify evidence of responsible sourcing and environmental performance. Snow identified public procurement, hospitality and green-building markets as areas where American hardwood could benefit from stronger documentation.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size: 20px; margin: 30px 0 14px;\">New applications and mill efficiency become priorities<\/h2>\n<p>The thermal modification panel, moderated by Chris Rider of AHC, examined additional outlets for hardwoods beyond conventional interior applications.<\/p>\n<p>Kelly Bartz of Arbor Wood described opportunities in exteriors, interiors and components for other manufacturers. He stressed the positioning of the material:<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"margin: 24px 0; padding: 0 0 0 18px; border: 0; border-left: 2px solid #999; background: none; color: inherit;\">\n<p><em>\u201cThis is not really a commodity product. It\u2019s not a structural product.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0 0; font-size: 12px !important; line-height: 1.4; font-weight: normal; color: #666;\">Kelly Bartz, Arbor Wood, on the positioning of thermally modified hardwood<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Cladding, decking and outdoor components were prominent applications. More stable interior flooring and other products could also offer opportunities, but the panel treated those as areas requiring suitable product development and testing.<\/p>\n<p>Paul Timmons of Cambium discussed the role of distribution and customer understanding. The discussion repeatedly returned to the need to explain correct use, installation and limitations. Thermally modified wood still responds to moisture, and processing can increase brittleness.<\/p>\n<p>Panellists also stressed that modification cannot correct poor initial drying or make defective material sound. For sawmills, supplying appropriate blanks and meeting processing specifications can be as important as the appearance grade.<\/p>\n<p>Price remains a barrier. The clearest near-term opportunities are in applications where customers accept a premium for appearance and performance, rather than in a contest with the cheapest substitute materials.<\/p>\n<p>NHLA executive director Dallin Brooks described the association\u2019s work on testing, standards and third-party verification. He also reported that NHLA mill studies had identified more than USD 14 million in annual production-cost savings across studies undertaken over the previous three years.<\/p>\n<p>In a separate session, Lew McCreery of the US Forest Service examined using mill residues for heat and combined heat and power. The business case depends on residue supply, competing outlets, equipment costs and the facility\u2019s energy needs. Mills with sustained kiln-drying demand may have different opportunities from businesses with limited year-round heat requirements.<\/p>\n<p>The association\u2019s incoming vice chair, Tom Coble of Hartzell Hardwoods, linked the loss of traditional markets to competition from substitutes and the movement of processing overseas. He identified stronger demand for North American hardwoods and support for domestic producers as priorities.<\/p>\n<p>Cleveland\u2019s market sessions left sawmills with a demanding planning problem. Log exports are approaching record levels, but lumber shipments remain far below earlier peaks. Buyers in growth destinations have alternatives, and a domestic recovery is expected to arrive gradually. Producers face an immediate need to protect margins and retain customers while building the specifications, applications and sourcing evidence that can win additional business.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>American hardwood sawmills are facing more than a prolonged downturn. Export demand is moving towards logs, overseas processors are competing with lumber sawn from American timber, and domestic customers are buying less as housing activity and consumer confidence remain weak. &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-hardwood-market-outlook-sawmill-closures-rising-log-exports-and-a-slow-recovery-forecast\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100208,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100207","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>US hardwood market outlook: sawmill closures, rising log exports and a slow recovery forecast - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-hardwood-market-outlook-sawmill-closures-rising-log-exports-and-a-slow-recovery-forecast\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US hardwood market outlook: sawmill closures, rising log exports and a slow recovery forecast - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"American hardwood sawmills are facing more than a prolonged downturn. 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