The U.S. hardwood industry is approaching the final months of 2026 in an uneasy equilibrium. Consumption is no longer falling at the pace seen earlier in the cycle, yet there is little evidence of a convincing recovery in the markets that traditionally generate the best returns for sawmills. Cabinets, flooring and millwork are still absorbing substantially less hardwood than they did only a few years ago, while exports weakened steadily through the summer. What prevents the picture from looking considerably worse is a combination of stronger industrial demand, particularly from pallet manufacturers, and firmer business in a small number of species and overseas markets.<\/p>\n
Total U.S. hardwood lumber consumption is expected to reach roughly 5.45 billion board feet this year, almost unchanged from 2025. That apparent stability is deceptive. Consumption remains about 26% below its 2020 level, while the gap between grade lumber and industrial hardwood has widened. Domestic grade consumption is projected to fall another 3.5% this year, whereas industrial use is expected to increase by 3%. The market has not so much recovered as reorganised around a smaller base.
\nCabinet demand illustrates the shift most clearly. Hardwood consumption in the sector is forecast at just 224 million board feet in 2026, nearly 11% below last year and 44% below 2020. Flooring is expected to consume about 509 million board feet, down almost 5% from 2025, while millwork and wood components are also lower. Furniture is one of the few categories moving in the opposite direction, with consumption forecast to rise 6.4%, although even there volumes remain 38% below where they stood in 2020.<\/p>\n
| Sector<\/th>\n | 2025<\/th>\n | 2026<\/th>\n | Change y\/y<\/th>\n | Vs 2020<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cabinets<\/td>\n | 251 mmbf<\/td>\n | 224 mmbf<\/td>\n | -10.8%<\/td>\n | -44.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Flooring<\/td>\n | 534 mmbf<\/td>\n | 509 mmbf<\/td>\n | -4.7%<\/td>\n | -22.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Furniture<\/td>\n | 225 mmbf<\/td>\n | 239 mmbf<\/td>\n | +6.4%<\/td>\n | -38.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Millwork \/ wood components<\/td>\n | 315 mmbf<\/td>\n | 306 mmbf<\/td>\n | -2.8%<\/td>\n | -29.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Domestic grade<\/td>\n | 1,325 mmbf<\/td>\n | 1,278 mmbf<\/td>\n | -3.5%<\/td>\n | -31.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Industrial hardwood<\/td>\n | 3,020 mmbf<\/td>\n | 3,112 mmbf<\/td>\n | +3.0%<\/td>\n | -25.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total consumption<\/td>\n | 5,443 mmbf<\/td>\n | 5,451 mmbf<\/td>\n | +0.2%<\/td>\n | -25.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n The relative strength of industrial hardwood is therefore carrying much of the market. Pallet production alone is expected to consume just over 2.0 billion board feet this year, an increase of more than 11%, while demand for board-road and mat timbers is also higher. Railway ties are the main exception, with consumption forecast to fall 15%. For sawmills, this distinction matters because industrial outlets help keep lower grades moving when appearance markets are weak, but they do not reproduce the margins normally associated with strong cabinet, flooring and millwork demand.<\/p>\n Housing pressure persists as exports lose momentum<\/strong><\/p>\n Housing remains one of the central constraints on the domestic side. Mortgage rates moved back towards 6.5% by late June after a lengthy period of decline, weakening hopes that improving affordability would revive homebuilding and sales. Higher fuel and shipping costs following the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict have added expense at almost every stage of the supply chain, from log transport to finished lumber deliveries, while households facing higher costs for essentials have less room for discretionary spending on furniture and home improvements.<\/p>\n Renovation has proved more resistant than new construction, partly because many projects are financed from savings rather than mortgages, but strong renovation spending no longer translates automatically into strong hardwood consumption. MDF, engineered flooring and luxury vinyl products continue to take share in price-sensitive applications, especially where the appearance of solid wood can be replicated at lower cost.<\/p>\n Exports have also turned softer. U.S. hardwood sawn timber shipments were worth about US$404.9 million in May-July, on a volume of 625,846 m\u00b3. Compared with February-April, export value fell 6.6% and volume declined 7.7%. The monthly progression was more worrying than the three-month total alone suggests: export value slipped from US$147.9 million in May to US$136.1 million in June and then to US$120.9 million in July, while volume fell from 226,480 m\u00b3 to 190,935 m\u00b3 over the same period.<\/p>\n The decline was concentrated rather than universal. China, Canada and Mexico together generated reductions roughly equal to the entire net fall in export value before increases in other markets were counted. China alone accounted for close to 58% of the sequential contraction, reinforcing how dependent the American hardwood trade remains on a relatively small number of large destinations.<\/p>\n China becomes more selective as Vietnam gains ground<\/strong><\/p>\n China remains the indispensable overseas market, accounting for almost one-third of U.S. hardwood sawn timber export value, but what Chinese buyers are purchasing has changed noticeably. Red oak shipments fell by more than 20% from February-April to about US$47.3 million, removing roughly US$12.4 million from the trade. Cherry, ash and other oak categories also weakened. Walnut, by contrast, rose more than 23% to US$30.5 million, while maple also gained, suggesting that the Chinese market is becoming more selective rather than simply retreating from American hardwood altogether.<\/p>\n That shift also explains why the calculated average export value increased slightly to about US$647\/m\u00b3 despite falling volumes. The change should not be read as a general improvement in prices. Walnut, one of the higher-value species in the U.S. export basket, increased its share of total export value from roughly 15% to almost 18%. Remove walnut from the calculation and the average customs value of the remaining hardwood mix actually edges lower.<\/p>\n Vietnam provides the clearest contrast. Exports there reached approximately US$59.5 million in May-July, rising 5.3% from the preceding three months and 15% from the same period last year. The improvement is not dependent on a single species: oak, walnut and yellow poplar all account for significant portions of the trade, while walnut shipments were almost twice their year-earlier value. Vietnam is still nowhere near large enough to replace China, but its role in the Asian processing chain is becoming steadily more important.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Species trends underline the same fragmentation. Oak still represents almost half of U.S. hardwood sawn timber export value, which means weakness there has a disproportionate effect on the national figures. Combined oak exports were worth about US$200.6 million in May-July, down 9.5% from February-April. Walnut moved sharply in the opposite direction, rising to more than US$71 million, while yellow poplar remained relatively stable. Ash weakened heavily, and cherry recorded one of the steepest short-term declines despite still remaining above its year-earlier level.<\/p>\n The market is changing shape rather than recovering<\/strong><\/p>\n The question for the remainder of 2026 is therefore less about whether total hardwood consumption moves a few tenths of a percentage point higher or lower than about where the remaining demand is migrating. Pallets are taking more wood at home, while the traditional grade-lumber markets remain subdued. China is still the largest export customer, but purchasing is becoming increasingly species-specific. Vietnam is expanding, walnut is performing well, and oak \u2014 still the backbone of the American export trade \u2014 remains under pressure.<\/p>\n The U.S.-Iran conflict has made freight and energy more expensive and has complicated an already difficult economic environment, but the problems facing American hardwood cannot be reduced to one geopolitical shock. The more important adjustment is structural: sawmills and exporters are being forced to rely more heavily on industrial uses, alternative Asian markets and a narrower group of species at a time when the high-value domestic applications that once supported the industry remain far below their previous levels.<\/p>\n That makes the current period less a conventional cyclical recovery than a redistribution of demand. Whether that redistribution ultimately produces a healthier market will depend on whether the expanding segments can become large and profitable enough to compensate for what has been lost elsewhere.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The U.S. hardwood industry is approaching the final months of 2026 in an uneasy equilibrium. Consumption is no longer falling at the pace seen earlier in the cycle, yet there is little evidence of a convincing recovery in the markets … Continue reading |
![<\/a><\/p>\nSpecies trends underline the same fragmentation. Oak still represents almost half of U.S. hardwood sawn timber export value, which means weakness there has a disproportionate effect on the national figures. Combined oak exports were worth about US$200.6 million in May-July, down 9.5% from February-April. Walnut moved sharply in the opposite direction, rising to more than US$71 million, while yellow poplar remained relatively stable. Ash weakened heavily, and cherry recorded one of the steepest short-term declines despite still remaining above its year-earlier level.<\/p>\nThe market is changing shape rather than recovering<\/strong><\/p>\nThe question for the remainder of 2026 is therefore less about whether total hardwood consumption moves a few tenths of a percentage point higher or lower than about where the remaining demand is migrating. Pallets are taking more wood at home, while the traditional grade-lumber markets remain subdued. China is still the largest export customer, but purchasing is becoming increasingly species-specific. Vietnam is expanding, walnut is performing well, and oak \u2014 still the backbone of the American export trade \u2014 remains under pressure.<\/p>\nThe U.S.-Iran conflict has made freight and energy more expensive and has complicated an already difficult economic environment, but the problems facing American hardwood cannot be reduced to one geopolitical shock. The more important adjustment is structural: sawmills and exporters are being forced to rely more heavily on industrial uses, alternative Asian markets and a narrower group of species at a time when the high-value domestic applications that once supported the industry remain far below their previous levels.<\/p>\nThat makes the current period less a conventional cyclical recovery than a redistribution of demand. Whether that redistribution ultimately produces a healthier market will depend on whether the expanding segments can become large and profitable enough to compensate for what has been lost elsewhere.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The U.S. hardwood industry is approaching the final months of 2026 in an uneasy equilibrium. Consumption is no longer falling at the pace seen earlier in the cycle, yet there is little evidence of a convincing recovery in the markets … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100191,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100190","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy America\u2019s hardwood recovery keeps slipping away? - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/why-americas-hardwood-recovery-keeps-slipping-away\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why America\u2019s hardwood recovery keeps slipping away? - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The U.S. hardwood industry is approaching the final months of 2026 in an uneasy equilibrium. 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