{"id":100184,"date":"2026-10-06T06:31:56","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T06:31:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=100184"},"modified":"2026-10-06T19:29:46","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T19:29:46","slug":"uk-softwood-sawn-timber-imports-set-to-fall-as-q4-price-pressure-builds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/uk-softwood-sawn-timber-imports-set-to-fall-as-q4-price-pressure-builds\/","title":{"rendered":"UK softwood sawn timber imports set to fall as Q4 price pressure builds"},"content":{"rendered":"

UK softwood sawn timber imports are on course to finish 2026 below last year\u2019s level as weak construction activity and cautious purchasing continue to hold back demand, but pressure on Scandinavian sawmills to move production could intensify price competition during the final quarter.<\/p>\n

UK imports of softwood sawn timber totalled around 2.90 million m\u00b3 in the first half of 2026, down by about 5% year on year. The decline accelerated during the second quarter after a relatively stable start to the year.<\/p>\n

Based on the first-half total, July trade flows reported by major supplying countries and the latest available Eurostat and UK trade data, GWMI estimates that UK softwood sawn timber imports reached around 3.39 million m\u00b3 in January-July 2026.<\/p>\n

This would leave the market running materially below the level required to match the approximately 5.72 million m\u00b3 imported during 2025.<\/p>\n

Purchasing remains cautious<\/strong><\/p>\n

Demand remains uneven across the UK timber trade, with merchants and importers continuing to limit forward purchasing and keep inventories under close control.<\/p>\n

The weakness is being driven less by a shortage of timber than by subdued end-user consumption. Construction activity remains under pressure, particularly in housing, while merchants have little incentive to build stocks in a market where prices could weaken further.<\/p>\n

This has left Scandinavian sawmills facing a difficult fourth quarter. Production has returned following the summer holiday period, but the UK market is in no position to absorb significantly higher volumes at current price levels.<\/p>\n

The risk is that suppliers attempt to stimulate orders through lower prices.<\/p>\n

Swedish pressure could reshape Q4<\/strong><\/p>\n

The UK remains a critical export outlet for the Swedish sawmilling industry. With domestic and continental European construction demand still subdued, mills are increasingly dependent on export markets to absorb production.<\/p>\n

If Swedish suppliers push additional softwood sawn timber into the UK through aggressive pricing, import volumes could stabilise or even rise during the final months of the year without any corresponding improvement in actual consumption.<\/p>\n

That would create the risk of higher stocks at ports, distributors and merchants, putting further pressure on inventory values.<\/p>\n

The result could be a familiar pattern in the UK structural softwood market: higher arrivals, weak underlying demand and renewed competition between suppliers for a relatively fixed pool of orders.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Supply is already being adjusted<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sawmillers in several producing regions have responded to weaker conditions by reducing output.<\/p>\n

In Sweden, Holmen has cut production at Linghem. Finnish producers have also announced or discussed capacity reductions, while German softwood sawn timber output has fallen sharply as high log costs and weak selling prices squeeze margins.<\/p>\n

Production curtailments are also continuing in Canada and parts of the United States.<\/p>\n

These reductions should provide some support to the market, but the adjustment is uneven. Scandinavian producers still have substantial volumes to place, while the UK remains one of the few large European import markets capable of absorbing sizeable shipments.<\/p>\n

GWMI sees imports at around 5.4 million m\u00b3 in 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

GWMI\u2019s base-case forecast is for UK softwood sawn timber imports of around 5.40 million m\u00b3 in 2026, approximately 5.5% below the 2025 level.<\/p>\n

This assumes imports of around 2.01 million m\u00b3 between August and December, following an estimated 3.39 million m\u00b3 during the first seven months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Period<\/th>\nSoftwood sawn timber imports<\/th>\nChange \/ status<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
2025 full year<\/td>\n5.72 million m\u00b3<\/td>\nActual<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H1 2026<\/td>\n2.90 million m\u00b3<\/td>\nAbout -5% y\/y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jan-Jul 2026<\/td>\n3.39 million m\u00b3<\/td>\nGWMI estimate<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aug-Dec 2026<\/td>\n2.01 million m\u00b3<\/td>\nGWMI base forecast<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2026 full year<\/td>\n5.40 million m\u00b3<\/td>\nAbout -5.5% y\/y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Three scenarios for the final months<\/h2>\n

The main uncertainty is not whether UK demand will suddenly recover, but how aggressively overseas suppliers respond to weak consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Scenario<\/th>\nAug-Dec imports<\/th>\n2026 total<\/th>\nChange vs 2025<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Weak-demand case<\/td>\n1.86 million m\u00b3<\/td>\n5.25 million m\u00b3<\/td>\n-8.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GWMI base case<\/td>\n2.01 million m\u00b3<\/td>\n5.40 million m\u00b3<\/td>\n-5.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Price-war case<\/td>\n2.16 million m\u00b3<\/td>\n5.55 million m\u00b3<\/td>\n-3.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

In the weaker-demand scenario, merchants continue cutting purchases and Scandinavian producers respond by reducing production rather than forcing additional softwood sawn timber into the UK. Imports would then finish the year at around 5.25 million m\u00b3.<\/p>\n

The opposite scenario would see Scandinavian mills use lower prices to maintain volumes. In that case, UK imports could approach 5.55 million m\u00b3 even without a meaningful improvement in underlying demand.<\/p>\n

This is the main risk for Q4. A rise in softwood sawn timber imports would not necessarily signal a healthier UK timber market. It could instead indicate that excess Nordic production is being moved into Britain through price concessions.<\/p>\n

Prices may move before demand does<\/strong><\/p>\n

The UK market therefore faces a difficult balance in the final months of 2026.<\/p>\n

Lower sawmill production should eventually help bring supply closer to demand, but merchants remain cautious and Scandinavian producers still need outlets for significant volumes.<\/p>\n

GWMI expects softwood sawn timber import volumes to remain below 2025 levels for the year as a whole, but the direction of prices could become considerably more volatile if suppliers compete aggressively for market share during Q4.<\/p>\n

For buyers, that could create short-term purchasing opportunities. For importers carrying existing stocks, however, another round of price reductions would further weaken inventory values and margins.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

UK softwood sawn timber imports are on course to finish 2026 below last year\u2019s level as weak construction activity and cautious purchasing continue to hold back demand, but pressure on Scandinavian sawmills to move production could intensify price competition during … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100185,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100184","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUK softwood sawn timber imports set to fall as Q4 price pressure builds - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/uk-softwood-sawn-timber-imports-set-to-fall-as-q4-price-pressure-builds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UK softwood sawn timber imports set to fall as Q4 price pressure builds - 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