{"id":100172,"date":"2026-10-05T07:00:51","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T07:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=100172"},"modified":"2026-10-05T19:20:11","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T19:20:11","slug":"us-lumber-futures-fall-to-two-year-low-as-housing-costs-bite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-lumber-futures-fall-to-two-year-low-as-housing-costs-bite\/","title":{"rendered":"US lumber futures fall to two-year low as housing costs bite"},"content":{"rendered":"

US lumber futures have fallen to their weakest level in around two years, trading close to $530 per 1,000 board feet<\/strong> as high borrowing costs continue to weigh on housing demand.<\/p>\n

The decline extends a slide that began in late July. Futures had been near $535 on September 22, roughly 20% below their July peak, and the market has continued to soften since then.<\/p>\n

The main pressure is still coming from housing. Mortgage rates have climbed to around 7.3%<\/strong>, their highest level in three years, while higher bond yields and renewed concerns over inflation and US government debt have pushed financing costs back up.<\/p>\n

Housing activity was already struggling before the latest move. Building permits have weakened, buyers remain sensitive to monthly mortgage costs and new construction is entering a seasonally slower period. That leaves lumber demand exposed just as producers had been hoping for a firmer recovery.<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve\u2019s latest rate increase has added to the pressure. Higher financing costs reduce the ability of developers and homebuyers to absorb expensive projects, while long-term bond markets have also moved sharply lower, keeping upward pressure on borrowing rates.<\/p>\n

For lumber, the combination is difficult: weak housing demand, higher financing costs and the seasonal slowdown into autumn and winter are all working in the same direction.<\/p>\n

Mill closures continue across western Canada<\/h3>\n

The weak market is also feeding back into production.<\/p>\n

More than 20 sawmills have closed in British Columbia since 2023, reflecting a combination of weaker North American lumber demand, high costs and tighter timber availability. Canfor has also announced the permanent closure of its Fox Creek sawmill in Alberta.<\/p>\n

The closures matter because they show that the current downturn is not only visible in futures prices. Capacity is continuing to leave the market, particularly in western Canada, where sawmills have been under pressure from both demand and raw-material constraints.<\/p>\n

That could eventually tighten supply if US housing activity recovers, but for now the demand side remains too weak to provide much support.<\/p>\n

Trade tensions add another layer<\/h3>\n

The US-Canada lumber dispute continues to add volatility.<\/p>\n

Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs of 25% on US lumber<\/strong> and 50% on plywood<\/strong> following new US measures affecting several wood products.<\/p>\n

US forestry groups have long argued that Canada\u2019s system of predominantly publicly owned forest land gives Canadian producers an advantage through provincial timber pricing. Canadian producers and governments reject that argument.<\/p>\n

The trade measures may influence cross-border flows, but they are not the main force behind the current futures decline. The market is still being driven primarily by housing affordability, interest rates and expectations for construction activity.<\/p>\n

The contrast with Europe is notable. German and other continental sawmills are facing a different problem: roundwood costs remain high while weak sawn timber demand limits how much higher raw-material costs can be passed through to customers.<\/p>\n

In North America, the immediate pressure is on demand. In Europe, the squeeze is more often between expensive logs and weak selling prices.<\/p>\n

The market is back near pre-boom levels<\/h3>\n

Current futures are far below the extraordinary peaks seen earlier in the decade. Lumber climbed to around $1,711 per 1,000 board feet in 2021<\/strong> and again reached roughly $1,477 in 2022<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

At around one-third of those levels, some analysts see less room for another major collapse. A sustained recovery, however, would likely require a change in the interest-rate environment and a clearer improvement in US housing activity.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US lumber futures have fallen to their weakest level in around two years, trading close to $530 per 1,000 board feet as high borrowing costs continue to weigh on housing demand. 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