\n| Norway<\/td>\n | NOK 885\/m\u00b3, about \u20ac82\/m\u00b3<\/td>\n | June<\/td>\n | -18.6% y\/y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n These values use different sale terms, dimensions and reporting methods and should not be read as directly comparable delivered mill prices. They do, however, show the direction of travel very clearly.<\/p>\n The Swedish correction should also not be mistaken for a return to cheap logs. Even after the Q2 decline, current nominal prices remain around twice the levels seen before the major raw-material rally.<\/p>\n Sweden is moving first through the restructuring<\/strong><\/p>\nSweden has advanced furthest through the capacity adjustment. Average pine sawlog prices fell to SEK 855\/m\u00b3 in Q2, down 12% from the first quarter and 17% from a year earlier, while spruce declined to SEK 1,059\/m\u00b3, down 9% quarter on quarter and 14% year on year.<\/p>\n Storm timber has accelerated the correction without creating a genuine national surplus. Storm Johannes brought down around 10.9 million m\u00b3 in late December 2025 and Storm Dave added more than 2 million m\u00b3 during the spring. The combined volume exceeded 13 million m\u00b3 in less than four months.<\/p>\n The additional timber is concentrated geographically. National softwood sawlog inventories declined during Q2, while stocks in the main Johannes-affected region continued increasing.\u00a0 That explains why mills in central Sweden can face unusually good pine availability at the same time as southern producers still compete heavily for spruce.<\/p>\n The industrial response is becoming increasingly structural. Vida is closing Urshult and Orrefors, Holmen is reducing Linghem from 72,000 m\u00b3 to 26,000 m\u00b3, Bergkvist Siljan has stopped production at Mora, \u00d6stan\u00e5s\u00e5gen has suspended sawing and Moelven is closing \u00c5rj\u00e4ng.<\/p>\n GWMI does not expect the nominal capacity removed at these mills to translate one-for-one into lower Swedish production, because groups are redistributing volumes toward newer and more efficient plants. Sweden is likely to end the cycle with fewer sawmill sites and larger average production units.<\/p>\n Finland has already lost volume, but not enough log cost<\/strong><\/p>\nFinland has experienced a less favourable sequence because finished-product volumes have declined much faster than the raw-material cost base.<\/p>\n Softwood lumber production reached around 6.1 million m\u00b3 in the first half of 2026, down 3%, with spruce production about 6% lower at 3.0 million m\u00b3. January\u2013May export volume fell 14.8% to 2.89 million m\u00b3, while export value declined 13.2% to \u20ac740.8 million. Average customs value increased slightly to around \u20ac257\/m\u00b3, but that was nowhere near sufficient to offset the loss of volume.<\/p>\n GWMI expects Finnish production to finish 2026 at around 11.2\u201311.3 million m\u00b3 compared with 11.7 million m\u00b3 in 2025.
\nThe capacity response is already visible through the proposed closure of Stora Enso\u2019s Veitsiluoto mill, low utilisation at Mets\u00e4 Fibre\u2019s Rauma sawmill, temporary layoffs at Binderholz\u2019s Finnish operations and additional workforce adjustments elsewhere.<\/p>\n For 2027, the central question is whether lower industrial wood demand finally produces a substantial reduction in sawlog prices. If it does, Finnish mills can recover part of their margin without requiring a strong increase in lumber prices. If it does not, additional permanent capacity decisions become increasingly likely.<\/p>\n Austria remains expensive but commercially well positioned<\/strong><\/p>\nAustria is almost the reverse of Sweden: roundwood is available, but sawlogs remain expensive. Spruce\/fir sawlogs averaged \u20ac122.50\/m\u00b3 in August, among the highest prices monitored by GWMI.<\/p>\n Lumber production is expected to fall from around 9.6 million m\u00b3 in 2025 to about 9.3 million m\u00b3 this year. The discussions at the Klagenfurt International Timber Fair showed how the investment calculation has changed. Sawmills remain interested in scanners, drying technology, optimisation, robotics and automation, but large capacity projects face much stricter scrutiny because utilisation and financing costs are uncertain.<\/p>\n Austria nevertheless retains a significant commercial advantage through geography. Germany and Italy can be served over comparatively short transport distances, while the country also has a strong engineered-wood sector capable of absorbing part of the sawmill output into CLT, glulam and other higher-value products.<\/p>\n GWMI therefore sees Austria as a margin problem rather than a market likely to suffer a dramatic production collapse.<\/p>\n The Baltics remain competitive, but not because logs are cheap<\/strong><\/p>\nEstonia illustrates how much the Baltic cost model has changed. Spruce sawlogs reached \u20ac109.56\/m\u00b3 in August and pine \u20ac104.66\/m\u00b3, while birch sawlogs exceeded \u20ac107\/m\u00b3. These are no longer low-cost raw-material values.<\/p>\n The competitive advantage of Baltic mills increasingly comes from industrial efficiency, labour structure, modern production assets and access to export logistics rather than exceptionally cheap logs.<\/p>\n Latvia follows a similar pattern, particularly for larger spruce assortments. GWMI expects the Baltic states to remain aggressive suppliers into western Europe in 2027, although firm raw material and transport costs will limit how far mills can discount without damaging margins.<\/p>\n Poland continues gaining industrial weight<\/strong><\/p>\nPoland is becoming increasingly important further downstream. MDF production reached approximately 2.63 million m\u00b3 in 2025, slightly ahead of Germany at 2.61 million m\u00b3, showing how Central European processing capacity is gradually becoming less centred exclusively on Germany.<\/p>\n Poland combines a large furniture sector, substantial panel capacity and access to western and eastern European customers. It also uses a different mechanism to protect forestry service companies from volatile diesel costs: fuel movements can be incorporated into contracts with the State Forests rather than being dealt with exclusively through a fixed tax rebate.<\/p>\n Diesel is increasingly part of the raw-material price<\/strong><\/p>\nThe official sawlog price increasingly understates what wood actually costs once it reaches the sawmill gate.
\nHarvesters, forwarders and log trucks are all heavily exposed to diesel. France\u2019s forestry contractors are asking for support on off-road GNR diesel to increase from \u20ac0.15 to \u20ac0.25\/litre after sharp fuel-price increases during 2026.<\/p>\n Finland faces a different competitive problem. Finnish Forest Industries says diesel was around \u20ac0.47\/litre more expensive in Finland than Sweden in July, while long transport distances mean logistics account for an unusually large share of industrial costs.<\/p>\n Sweden already operates a more established tax-relief framework, while Poland incorporates fuel adjustments into forestry service contracts.<\/p>\n This means two sawmills can purchase apparently similar standing timber at similar prices yet arrive at very different delivered log costs once harvesting, forwarding and transport are included.<\/p>\n France has weak demand and a temporary regional raw-material shock<\/strong><\/p>\nFrance is dealing with two opposing developments. Construction demand remains subdued, while major fires in southwestern France have created a large pool of damaged maritime pine that needs to be harvested quickly.<\/p>\n Around 3.5 million m\u00b3 was affected in the Gironde fire, with further timber damaged around Biscarrosse. Much of the material remains usable for pallets, panels, pulp, pellets and other industrial applications, but the timing is important because quality declines if timber remains in the forest too long.<\/p>\n The additional volume should place pressure on pine prices locally, but it does not solve France\u2019s wider raw-material or demand problems because the effect is concentrated geographically and by species.<\/p>\n Hardwood processors face a different structural challenge<\/strong><\/p>\nEurope\u2019s hardwood industry is more exposed to weak consumer demand than the softwood sector because furniture, flooring, interiors, joinery and specialist applications account for a much larger share of consumption.<\/p>\n At the same time, hardwood sawmills must compete for logs with pulp producers and overseas buyers, particularly for higher-value European species.<\/p>\n The question is therefore no longer simply whether Europe has enough hardwood growing in its forests. It is whether European processors can afford to convert those logs into lumber and finished products before they leave the continent.<\/p>\n The recent discussions involving ABALON HARDWOOD, EOS and DeSH have brought that issue directly into the political debate. Hardwood processors argue that exporting logs transfers the value added from sawing, drying, grading and secondary processing to non-EU markets, while domestic processing has to absorb higher labour, energy and regulatory costs.<\/p>\n Changing forest composition makes the question more important rather than less. Many European forests are expected to contain a larger hardwood share over time, but a greater physical resource does not automatically create a profitable processing sector.<\/p>\n GWMI expects further pressure on small and medium-sized hardwood sawmills during 2027 if furniture and interior demand remain weak.<\/p>\n Panels: utilisation matters more than installed capacity<\/strong><\/p>\nThe wood-based panel sector is following a different cycle.<\/p>\n European particleboard production reached about 31.82 million m\u00b3 in 2025 and is expected to increase only marginally during 2026, while MDF has performed better. Poland\u2019s rise above Germany in MDF production is small numerically but symbolically important because it shows how manufacturing weight continues shifting inside Central Europe.<\/p>\n Pfleiderer\u2019s restructuring therefore matters not because Europe lacks board capacity but because its future utilisation strategy can influence supply and pricing across Germany, Poland and neighbouring markets.<\/p>\n A less indebted Pfleiderer could run plants harder, invest in production efficiency and defend commodity market share, which would keep raw-board prices competitive. Alternatively, a stronger focus on coated boards, decorative surfaces, HPL and worktops would direct more base-board output internally and shift competition toward higher-value products.<\/p>\n GWMI expects panel producers to spend 2027 concentrating on utilisation, product mix and downstream finishing rather than making large additions to commodity capacity.<\/p>\n Investment is shifting from bigger plants to better plants<\/strong><\/p>\nPfeifer Group provides a useful example of where sawmill investment is moving. Instead of concentrating primarily on adding nominal sawing capacity, the company is investing in automated quality control, camera-based line monitoring, predictive maintenance, robotics and real-time production data.<\/p>\n The economic logic has become much stronger in the current market. Expensive logs increase the value of every percentage point of recovery; high labour costs strengthen the case for automation; and weak lumber demand makes better utilisation of existing assets more attractive than simply installing additional production capacity.<\/p>\n The same approach was visible among equipment suppliers at Klagenfurt, where scanners, optimisation, energy-efficient drying and flexible production systems attracted more attention than straightforward expansion.<\/p>\n GWMI expects this to be one of the defining investment themes of 2027: fewer projects justified purely by cubic-metre growth and more focused on how much saleable product can be extracted from each log and each operating hour.<\/p>\n European export flows are being redrawn<\/strong><\/p>\nThe export market has become another source of pressure because several large producing countries are losing volume in destinations that historically absorbed surplus production.<\/p>\n Finland is shipping less lumber overall. Germany has seen a sharp reduction in exports to the US. Japan and China have become more difficult for Nordic producers, while freight disruption has made several Gulf destinations more expensive to serve.<\/p>\n The consequence is not a simple disappearance of trade. More volume is being redirected.<\/p>\n \n\n\n| Trade flow<\/th>\n | Latest signal<\/th>\n | Market effect<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n | \n\n| Finland \u2192 world<\/td>\n | 2.89m m\u00b3 Jan\u2013July, -14.8%<\/td>\n | Lower mill utilisation and greater dependence on European customers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Germany \u2192 US<\/td>\n | Sharp decline in 2026<\/td>\n | More German lumber competing inside Europe<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| EU \u2192 Saudi Arabia<\/td>\n | 374,680 m\u00b3 in June, +112% y\/y<\/td>\n | Saudi Arabia becomes one of the strongest alternative outlets<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| EU \u2192 Egypt<\/td>\n | About 279,000 m\u00b3 in June, +56%<\/td>\n | North Africa absorbs redistributed European production<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| EU \u2192 Morocco<\/td>\n | About 170,000 m\u00b3 in June, +17%<\/td>\n | Growing importance as a Mediterranean outlet<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Saudi Arabia has become particularly important, with EU shipments reaching almost 375,000 m\u00b3 in June, while Egypt took nearly 279,000 m\u00b3 and Morocco around 170,000 m\u00b3.<\/p>\n The complication is logistics. Disruption around Hormuz has pushed more cargo toward Jeddah, Khor Fakkan, Salalah and Sohar, and emergency freight charges on some routes have reached around $3,000 per 40-foot container before inland transport, handling, insurance and storage are added.<\/p>\n A higher delivered lumber price in the Gulf therefore does not necessarily translate into a better return for the sawmill because much of the increase can disappear into freight.<\/p>\n Closures are beginning to alter Europe\u2019s production map<\/strong><\/p>\nThe most important change during 2026 is that the closure list is no longer made up of isolated company decisions.
\nPermanent closures, indefinite shutdowns, temporary layoffs and reduced operating schedules have appeared across Sweden, Finland, Germany, Austria, France, Poland, Lithuania and elsewhere.<\/p>\n \n\n\n| Company \/ site<\/th>\n | Country<\/th>\n | Measure<\/th>\n | Scale<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n | \n\n| Vida \u2013 Urshult & Orrefors<\/td>\n | Sweden<\/td>\n | Permanent closure<\/td>\n | 265,000 m\u00b3\/year<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Holmen \u2013 Linghem<\/td>\n | Sweden<\/td>\n | Structural production cut<\/td>\n | 72,000 \u2192 26,000 m\u00b3\/year<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Stora Enso \u2013 Veitsiluoto<\/td>\n | Finlanda<\/td>\n | Closure planned<\/td>\n | 200,000 m\u00b3\/year<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Mets\u00e4 Fibre \u2013 Rauma<\/td>\n | Finlanda<\/td>\n | Low utilisation<\/td>\n | Below 60% of installed capacity<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Mets\u00e4 Wood \u2013 Suolahti<\/td>\n | Finlanda<\/td>\n | Production ended<\/td>\n | 160,000 m\u00b3\/year softwood plywood<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Mercer \u2013 Torgau<\/td>\n | Germania<\/td>\n | Major restructuring<\/td>\n | Up to 350 positions affected<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Mocopinus \u2013 Karlsruhe & Ammelshain<\/td>\n | Germania<\/td>\n | Sites closed<\/td>\n | Around 270 jobs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Foresti\u00e8re Docelloise<\/td>\n | Fran\u021ba<\/td>\n | Liquidation and closure<\/td>\n | Around 35,000 m\u00b3\/year logs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n These measures are not directly additive because production can move between sites and remaining plants can raise utilisation. Even so, the direction is clear: Europe is removing weaker industrial assets while concentrating output at larger, more automated operations.<\/p>\n The next recovery may tighten the market faster than expected<\/strong><\/p>\nThis leads to the central argument in GWMI\u2019s outlook for 2027.<\/p>\n Europe does not need another 2021-style demand boom to produce a tighter lumber market. A much smaller recovery could be enough if buyers remain lightly stocked, sawmills continue restricting production and more capacity disappears before construction improves.<\/p>\n The first sign would probably not be a dramatic move in published benchmark prices. Lead times would extend first, aggressive offers would become less common and individual grades or dimensions would become more difficult to replace. Only after those changes would a broader pricing effect become visible.<\/p>\n That is why a weak Q4 does not contradict a tighter 2027 market. The market can still experience price competition during the winter while simultaneously losing part of the capacity that would be required once consumption begins rising.<\/p>\n GWMI regional forecast<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n| Region<\/th>\n | Q4 2026<\/th>\n | 2027 direction<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n | \n\n| Sweden<\/td>\n | Lower sawlog prices, weak margins, more consolidation<\/td>\n | Fewer sites and larger mills; southern timber pressure returns as storm volume clears<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Finlanda<\/td>\n | Lower production and exports, logs still expensive<\/td>\n | Further restructuring if sawlog prices fail to correct<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Germania<\/td>\n | Sawmills weak despite improving permits<\/td>\n | Best chance among major markets for improving building demand to reach mills<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Austria<\/td>\n | High sawlog costs, softer exports<\/td>\n | Stable industrial base, but margins depend on Germany, Italy and engineered wood<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Baltics<\/td>\n | Firm raw material, efficient mills<\/td>\n | Continued strong competition into western Europe<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Fran\u021ba<\/td>\n | Weak construction and regional salvage volume<\/td>\n | Southwestern pine works through fire timber; hardwood remains difficult<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| UK<\/td>\n | Risk of aggressive Scandinavian offers<\/td>\n | Lean inventories could amplify any improvement in construction<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| Southern Europe<\/td>\n | Mixed residential activity<\/td>\n | Engineered wood likely to perform better than commodity lumber<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n GWMI outlook into mid-2027<\/strong><\/p>\nGWMI expects the remainder of 2026 to remain difficult rather than collapse. European construction is still too weak to generate a broad increase in lumber consumption, export destinations remain uneven and some mills may use price to move unwanted Q4 production, particularly in the UK and other highly competitive import markets.<\/p>\n Sawlog markets should continue moving in different directions. Sweden is likely to see further easing where storm timber remains available, while Finland should experience slower downward pressure as lower mill utilisation gradually reaches procurement. Austria and southern Germany are likely to remain among Europe\u2019s most expensive sawlog markets unless harvesting increases materially or industrial demand falls further.<\/p>\n The larger change should come from the structure of production. Europe will enter 2027 with fewer sawmill sites, more output concentrated at large plants and greater attention to utilisation, automation and recovery rather than simple capacity expansion. Buyers will also enter the year with generally lean stocks after spending most of 2026 avoiding speculative inventory.
\nThat leaves the market unusually sensitive to even a moderate improvement in consumption. If German residential construction begins converting higher permit numbers into actual projects while UK and continental distributors start rebuilding stocks, mills will have to respond from a smaller and more disciplined production base than they had at the beginning of the downturn.
\nEurope\u2019s immediate problem therefore remains weak demand, but the issue likely to define the next phase will be how quickly supply can respond once that weakness finally begins to lift.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Europe\u2019s wood industry is approaching the final quarter of 2026 without the recovery that many producers, merchants and equipment suppliers expected at the beginning of the year. Construction remains weak across most of the continent, purchasing cycles are short and … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100095,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGWMI Forecast: Europe\u2019s wood industry enters final 2026 and 2027 with less capacity, stubborn log costs and weaker export outlets - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/gwmi-forecast-europes-wood-industry-enters-final-2026-and-2027-with-less-capacity-stubborn-log-costs-and-weaker-export-outlets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GWMI Forecast: Europe\u2019s wood industry enters final 2026 and 2027 with less capacity, stubborn log costs and weaker export outlets - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s wood industry is approaching the final quarter of 2026 without the recovery that many producers, merchants and equipment suppliers expected at the beginning of the year. 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![<\/a><\/p>\nEuropean sawlog markets have split apart<\/strong><\/p>\nRaw material is even more fragmented than finished lumber.<\/p>\nSweden and Norway are moving lower after the exceptional price escalation of 2024\u20132025, while Austria, southern Germany and Estonia remain expensive. Finland lies between the two groups, with timber buying down sharply but sawlog prices proving surprisingly resistant.<\/p>\n\n\n\nMarket<\/th>\nSpruce sawlog indicator<\/th>\nLatest period<\/th>\nDirection<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n\n\nAustria<\/td>\n\u20ac122.50\/m\u00b3<\/td>\nAugust<\/td>\nFirm<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nSouthern Germany<\/td>\n\u20ac116\u2013122\/m\u00b3<\/td>\nAugust<\/td>\nFirm<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nEstonia<\/td>\n\u20ac109.56\/m\u00b3<\/td>\nAugust<\/td>\nStable<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nLatvia<\/td>\n\u20ac99.00\/m\u00b3<\/td>\nLatest available<\/td>\nFirm<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nSweden<\/td>\nSEK 1,059\/m\u00b3, about \u20ac96\/m\u00b3<\/td>\nQ2<\/td>\n-9% q\/q<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nFinlanda<\/td>\n\u20ac83.14\/m\u00b3, standing sale<\/td>\nJuly<\/td>\nSlight easing<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nNorway<\/td>\nNOK 885\/m\u00b3, about \u20ac82\/m\u00b3<\/td>\nJune<\/td>\n-18.6% y\/y<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\nThese values use different sale terms, dimensions and reporting methods and should not be read as directly comparable delivered mill prices. They do, however, show the direction of travel very clearly.<\/p>\nThe Swedish correction should also not be mistaken for a return to cheap logs. Even after the Q2 decline, current nominal prices remain around twice the levels seen before the major raw-material rally.<\/p>\nSweden is moving first through the restructuring<\/strong><\/p>\nSweden has advanced furthest through the capacity adjustment. Average pine sawlog prices fell to SEK 855\/m\u00b3 in Q2, down 12% from the first quarter and 17% from a year earlier, while spruce declined to SEK 1,059\/m\u00b3, down 9% quarter on quarter and 14% year on year.<\/p>\nStorm timber has accelerated the correction without creating a genuine national surplus. Storm Johannes brought down around 10.9 million m\u00b3 in late December 2025 and Storm Dave added more than 2 million m\u00b3 during the spring. The combined volume exceeded 13 million m\u00b3 in less than four months.<\/p>\nThe additional timber is concentrated geographically. National softwood sawlog inventories declined during Q2, while stocks in the main Johannes-affected region continued increasing.\u00a0 That explains why mills in central Sweden can face unusually good pine availability at the same time as southern producers still compete heavily for spruce.<\/p>\nThe industrial response is becoming increasingly structural. Vida is closing Urshult and Orrefors, Holmen is reducing Linghem from 72,000 m\u00b3 to 26,000 m\u00b3, Bergkvist Siljan has stopped production at Mora, \u00d6stan\u00e5s\u00e5gen has suspended sawing and Moelven is closing \u00c5rj\u00e4ng.<\/p>\nGWMI does not expect the nominal capacity removed at these mills to translate one-for-one into lower Swedish production, because groups are redistributing volumes toward newer and more efficient plants. Sweden is likely to end the cycle with fewer sawmill sites and larger average production units.<\/p>\nFinland has already lost volume, but not enough log cost<\/strong><\/p>\nFinland has experienced a less favourable sequence because finished-product volumes have declined much faster than the raw-material cost base.<\/p>\nSoftwood lumber production reached around 6.1 million m\u00b3 in the first half of 2026, down 3%, with spruce production about 6% lower at 3.0 million m\u00b3. January\u2013May export volume fell 14.8% to 2.89 million m\u00b3, while export value declined 13.2% to \u20ac740.8 million. Average customs value increased slightly to around \u20ac257\/m\u00b3, but that was nowhere near sufficient to offset the loss of volume.<\/p>\nGWMI expects Finnish production to finish 2026 at around 11.2\u201311.3 million m\u00b3 compared with 11.7 million m\u00b3 in 2025.\nThe capacity response is already visible through the proposed closure of Stora Enso\u2019s Veitsiluoto mill, low utilisation at Mets\u00e4 Fibre\u2019s Rauma sawmill, temporary layoffs at Binderholz\u2019s Finnish operations and additional workforce adjustments elsewhere.<\/p>\nFor 2027, the central question is whether lower industrial wood demand finally produces a substantial reduction in sawlog prices. If it does, Finnish mills can recover part of their margin without requiring a strong increase in lumber prices. If it does not, additional permanent capacity decisions become increasingly likely.<\/p>\nAustria remains expensive but commercially well positioned<\/strong><\/p>\nAustria is almost the reverse of Sweden: roundwood is available, but sawlogs remain expensive. Spruce\/fir sawlogs averaged \u20ac122.50\/m\u00b3 in August, among the highest prices monitored by GWMI.<\/p>\nLumber production is expected to fall from around 9.6 million m\u00b3 in 2025 to about 9.3 million m\u00b3 this year. The discussions at the Klagenfurt International Timber Fair showed how the investment calculation has changed. Sawmills remain interested in scanners, drying technology, optimisation, robotics and automation, but large capacity projects face much stricter scrutiny because utilisation and financing costs are uncertain.<\/p>\nAustria nevertheless retains a significant commercial advantage through geography. Germany and Italy can be served over comparatively short transport distances, while the country also has a strong engineered-wood sector capable of absorbing part of the sawmill output into CLT, glulam and other higher-value products.<\/p>\nGWMI therefore sees Austria as a margin problem rather than a market likely to suffer a dramatic production collapse.<\/p>\nThe Baltics remain competitive, but not because logs are cheap<\/strong><\/p>\nEstonia illustrates how much the Baltic cost model has changed. Spruce sawlogs reached \u20ac109.56\/m\u00b3 in August and pine \u20ac104.66\/m\u00b3, while birch sawlogs exceeded \u20ac107\/m\u00b3. These are no longer low-cost raw-material values.<\/p>\nThe competitive advantage of Baltic mills increasingly comes from industrial efficiency, labour structure, modern production assets and access to export logistics rather than exceptionally cheap logs.<\/p>\nLatvia follows a similar pattern, particularly for larger spruce assortments. GWMI expects the Baltic states to remain aggressive suppliers into western Europe in 2027, although firm raw material and transport costs will limit how far mills can discount without damaging margins.<\/p>\nPoland continues gaining industrial weight<\/strong><\/p>\nPoland is becoming increasingly important further downstream. MDF production reached approximately 2.63 million m\u00b3 in 2025, slightly ahead of Germany at 2.61 million m\u00b3, showing how Central European processing capacity is gradually becoming less centred exclusively on Germany.<\/p>\nPoland combines a large furniture sector, substantial panel capacity and access to western and eastern European customers. It also uses a different mechanism to protect forestry service companies from volatile diesel costs: fuel movements can be incorporated into contracts with the State Forests rather than being dealt with exclusively through a fixed tax rebate.<\/p>\nDiesel is increasingly part of the raw-material price<\/strong><\/p>\nThe official sawlog price increasingly understates what wood actually costs once it reaches the sawmill gate.\nHarvesters, forwarders and log trucks are all heavily exposed to diesel. France\u2019s forestry contractors are asking for support on off-road GNR diesel to increase from \u20ac0.15 to \u20ac0.25\/litre after sharp fuel-price increases during 2026.<\/p>\nFinland faces a different competitive problem. Finnish Forest Industries says diesel was around \u20ac0.47\/litre more expensive in Finland than Sweden in July, while long transport distances mean logistics account for an unusually large share of industrial costs.<\/p>\nSweden already operates a more established tax-relief framework, while Poland incorporates fuel adjustments into forestry service contracts.<\/p>\nThis means two sawmills can purchase apparently similar standing timber at similar prices yet arrive at very different delivered log costs once harvesting, forwarding and transport are included.<\/p>\nFrance has weak demand and a temporary regional raw-material shock<\/strong><\/p>\nFrance is dealing with two opposing developments. Construction demand remains subdued, while major fires in southwestern France have created a large pool of damaged maritime pine that needs to be harvested quickly.<\/p>\nAround 3.5 million m\u00b3 was affected in the Gironde fire, with further timber damaged around Biscarrosse. Much of the material remains usable for pallets, panels, pulp, pellets and other industrial applications, but the timing is important because quality declines if timber remains in the forest too long.<\/p>\nThe additional volume should place pressure on pine prices locally, but it does not solve France\u2019s wider raw-material or demand problems because the effect is concentrated geographically and by species.<\/p>\nHardwood processors face a different structural challenge<\/strong><\/p>\nEurope\u2019s hardwood industry is more exposed to weak consumer demand than the softwood sector because furniture, flooring, interiors, joinery and specialist applications account for a much larger share of consumption.<\/p>\nAt the same time, hardwood sawmills must compete for logs with pulp producers and overseas buyers, particularly for higher-value European species.<\/p>\nThe question is therefore no longer simply whether Europe has enough hardwood growing in its forests. It is whether European processors can afford to convert those logs into lumber and finished products before they leave the continent.<\/p>\nThe recent discussions involving ABALON HARDWOOD, EOS and DeSH have brought that issue directly into the political debate. Hardwood processors argue that exporting logs transfers the value added from sawing, drying, grading and secondary processing to non-EU markets, while domestic processing has to absorb higher labour, energy and regulatory costs.<\/p>\nChanging forest composition makes the question more important rather than less. Many European forests are expected to contain a larger hardwood share over time, but a greater physical resource does not automatically create a profitable processing sector.<\/p>\nGWMI expects further pressure on small and medium-sized hardwood sawmills during 2027 if furniture and interior demand remain weak.<\/p>\nPanels: utilisation matters more than installed capacity<\/strong><\/p>\nThe wood-based panel sector is following a different cycle.<\/p>\nEuropean particleboard production reached about 31.82 million m\u00b3 in 2025 and is expected to increase only marginally during 2026, while MDF has performed better. Poland\u2019s rise above Germany in MDF production is small numerically but symbolically important because it shows how manufacturing weight continues shifting inside Central Europe.<\/p>\nPfleiderer\u2019s restructuring therefore matters not because Europe lacks board capacity but because its future utilisation strategy can influence supply and pricing across Germany, Poland and neighbouring markets.<\/p>\nA less indebted Pfleiderer could run plants harder, invest in production efficiency and defend commodity market share, which would keep raw-board prices competitive. Alternatively, a stronger focus on coated boards, decorative surfaces, HPL and worktops would direct more base-board output internally and shift competition toward higher-value products.<\/p>\nGWMI expects panel producers to spend 2027 concentrating on utilisation, product mix and downstream finishing rather than making large additions to commodity capacity.<\/p>\nInvestment is shifting from bigger plants to better plants<\/strong><\/p>\nPfeifer Group provides a useful example of where sawmill investment is moving. Instead of concentrating primarily on adding nominal sawing capacity, the company is investing in automated quality control, camera-based line monitoring, predictive maintenance, robotics and real-time production data.<\/p>\nThe economic logic has become much stronger in the current market. Expensive logs increase the value of every percentage point of recovery; high labour costs strengthen the case for automation; and weak lumber demand makes better utilisation of existing assets more attractive than simply installing additional production capacity.<\/p>\nThe same approach was visible among equipment suppliers at Klagenfurt, where scanners, optimisation, energy-efficient drying and flexible production systems attracted more attention than straightforward expansion.<\/p>\nGWMI expects this to be one of the defining investment themes of 2027: fewer projects justified purely by cubic-metre growth and more focused on how much saleable product can be extracted from each log and each operating hour.<\/p>\nEuropean export flows are being redrawn<\/strong><\/p>\nThe export market has become another source of pressure because several large producing countries are losing volume in destinations that historically absorbed surplus production.<\/p>\nFinland is shipping less lumber overall. Germany has seen a sharp reduction in exports to the US. Japan and China have become more difficult for Nordic producers, while freight disruption has made several Gulf destinations more expensive to serve.<\/p>\nThe consequence is not a simple disappearance of trade. More volume is being redirected.<\/p>\n\n\n\nTrade flow<\/th>\nLatest signal<\/th>\nMarket effect<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n\n\nFinland \u2192 world<\/td>\n2.89m m\u00b3 Jan\u2013July, -14.8%<\/td>\nLower mill utilisation and greater dependence on European customers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nGermany \u2192 US<\/td>\nSharp decline in 2026<\/td>\nMore German lumber competing inside Europe<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nEU \u2192 Saudi Arabia<\/td>\n374,680 m\u00b3 in June, +112% y\/y<\/td>\nSaudi Arabia becomes one of the strongest alternative outlets<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nEU \u2192 Egypt<\/td>\nAbout 279,000 m\u00b3 in June, +56%<\/td>\nNorth Africa absorbs redistributed European production<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nEU \u2192 Morocco<\/td>\nAbout 170,000 m\u00b3 in June, +17%<\/td>\nGrowing importance as a Mediterranean outlet<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\nSaudi Arabia has become particularly important, with EU shipments reaching almost 375,000 m\u00b3 in June, while Egypt took nearly 279,000 m\u00b3 and Morocco around 170,000 m\u00b3.<\/p>\nThe complication is logistics. Disruption around Hormuz has pushed more cargo toward Jeddah, Khor Fakkan, Salalah and Sohar, and emergency freight charges on some routes have reached around $3,000 per 40-foot container before inland transport, handling, insurance and storage are added.<\/p>\nA higher delivered lumber price in the Gulf therefore does not necessarily translate into a better return for the sawmill because much of the increase can disappear into freight.<\/p>\nClosures are beginning to alter Europe\u2019s production map<\/strong><\/p>\nThe most important change during 2026 is that the closure list is no longer made up of isolated company decisions.\nPermanent closures, indefinite shutdowns, temporary layoffs and reduced operating schedules have appeared across Sweden, Finland, Germany, Austria, France, Poland, Lithuania and elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\nCompany \/ site<\/th>\nCountry<\/th>\nMeasure<\/th>\nScale<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n\n\nVida \u2013 Urshult & Orrefors<\/td>\nSweden<\/td>\nPermanent closure<\/td>\n265,000 m\u00b3\/year<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nHolmen \u2013 Linghem<\/td>\nSweden<\/td>\nStructural production cut<\/td>\n72,000 \u2192 26,000 m\u00b3\/year<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nStora Enso \u2013 Veitsiluoto<\/td>\nFinlanda<\/td>\nClosure planned<\/td>\n200,000 m\u00b3\/year<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nMets\u00e4 Fibre \u2013 Rauma<\/td>\nFinlanda<\/td>\nLow utilisation<\/td>\nBelow 60% of installed capacity<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nMets\u00e4 Wood \u2013 Suolahti<\/td>\nFinlanda<\/td>\nProduction ended<\/td>\n160,000 m\u00b3\/year softwood plywood<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nMercer \u2013 Torgau<\/td>\nGermania<\/td>\nMajor restructuring<\/td>\nUp to 350 positions affected<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nMocopinus \u2013 Karlsruhe & Ammelshain<\/td>\nGermania<\/td>\nSites closed<\/td>\nAround 270 jobs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nSoci\u00e9t\u00e9 Foresti\u00e8re Docelloise<\/td>\nFran\u021ba<\/td>\nLiquidation and closure<\/td>\nAround 35,000 m\u00b3\/year logs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\nThese measures are not directly additive because production can move between sites and remaining plants can raise utilisation. Even so, the direction is clear: Europe is removing weaker industrial assets while concentrating output at larger, more automated operations.<\/p>\nThe next recovery may tighten the market faster than expected<\/strong><\/p>\nThis leads to the central argument in GWMI\u2019s outlook for 2027.<\/p>\nEurope does not need another 2021-style demand boom to produce a tighter lumber market. A much smaller recovery could be enough if buyers remain lightly stocked, sawmills continue restricting production and more capacity disappears before construction improves.<\/p>\nThe first sign would probably not be a dramatic move in published benchmark prices. Lead times would extend first, aggressive offers would become less common and individual grades or dimensions would become more difficult to replace. Only after those changes would a broader pricing effect become visible.<\/p>\nThat is why a weak Q4 does not contradict a tighter 2027 market. The market can still experience price competition during the winter while simultaneously losing part of the capacity that would be required once consumption begins rising.<\/p>\nGWMI regional forecast<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nRegion<\/th>\nQ4 2026<\/th>\n2027 direction<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n\n\nSweden<\/td>\nLower sawlog prices, weak margins, more consolidation<\/td>\nFewer sites and larger mills; southern timber pressure returns as storm volume clears<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nFinlanda<\/td>\nLower production and exports, logs still expensive<\/td>\nFurther restructuring if sawlog prices fail to correct<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nGermania<\/td>\nSawmills weak despite improving permits<\/td>\nBest chance among major markets for improving building demand to reach mills<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nAustria<\/td>\nHigh sawlog costs, softer exports<\/td>\nStable industrial base, but margins depend on Germany, Italy and engineered wood<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nBaltics<\/td>\nFirm raw material, efficient mills<\/td>\nContinued strong competition into western Europe<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nFran\u021ba<\/td>\nWeak construction and regional salvage volume<\/td>\nSouthwestern pine works through fire timber; hardwood remains difficult<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nUK<\/td>\nRisk of aggressive Scandinavian offers<\/td>\nLean inventories could amplify any improvement in construction<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\nSouthern Europe<\/td>\nMixed residential activity<\/td>\nEngineered wood likely to perform better than commodity lumber<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\nGWMI outlook into mid-2027<\/strong><\/p>\nGWMI expects the remainder of 2026 to remain difficult rather than collapse. European construction is still too weak to generate a broad increase in lumber consumption, export destinations remain uneven and some mills may use price to move unwanted Q4 production, particularly in the UK and other highly competitive import markets.<\/p>\nSawlog markets should continue moving in different directions. Sweden is likely to see further easing where storm timber remains available, while Finland should experience slower downward pressure as lower mill utilisation gradually reaches procurement. Austria and southern Germany are likely to remain among Europe\u2019s most expensive sawlog markets unless harvesting increases materially or industrial demand falls further.<\/p>\nThe larger change should come from the structure of production. Europe will enter 2027 with fewer sawmill sites, more output concentrated at large plants and greater attention to utilisation, automation and recovery rather than simple capacity expansion. Buyers will also enter the year with generally lean stocks after spending most of 2026 avoiding speculative inventory.\nThat leaves the market unusually sensitive to even a moderate improvement in consumption. If German residential construction begins converting higher permit numbers into actual projects while UK and continental distributors start rebuilding stocks, mills will have to respond from a smaller and more disciplined production base than they had at the beginning of the downturn.\nEurope\u2019s immediate problem therefore remains weak demand, but the issue likely to define the next phase will be how quickly supply can respond once that weakness finally begins to lift.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Europe\u2019s wood industry is approaching the final quarter of 2026 without the recovery that many producers, merchants and equipment suppliers expected at the beginning of the year. Construction remains weak across most of the continent, purchasing cycles are short and … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100095,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGWMI Forecast: Europe\u2019s wood industry enters final 2026 and 2027 with less capacity, stubborn log costs and weaker export outlets - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/gwmi-forecast-europes-wood-industry-enters-final-2026-and-2027-with-less-capacity-stubborn-log-costs-and-weaker-export-outlets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GWMI Forecast: Europe\u2019s wood industry enters final 2026 and 2027 with less capacity, stubborn log costs and weaker export outlets - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s wood industry is approaching the final quarter of 2026 without the recovery that many producers, merchants and equipment suppliers expected at the beginning of the year. 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