{"id":100025,"date":"2026-09-21T06:05:03","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T06:05:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/?p=100025"},"modified":"2026-09-21T18:09:57","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T18:09:57","slug":"us-lumber-prices-face-a-weak-winter-before-a-possible-spring-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-lumber-prices-face-a-weak-winter-before-a-possible-spring-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"US lumber prices face a weak winter before a possible spring recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"

The American lumber market is heading into its quietest months with mortgage rates close to 7%, fewer homes entering the construction pipeline and mills still waiting for a convincing reason to cut output. Prices have already lost their summer gains. GWMI expects the market to remain under pressure through the end of 2026, with the prospects for an early-2027 recovery depending largely on how much production is removed before spring buying returns.<\/p>\n

The US housing market is producing two stories at once. Builders started more single-family homes in August, lifting the annualised rate by 7.6% to 918,000 units. Yet permits for future single-family construction fell 1.8% to 878,000, total housing starts declined and mortgage rates moved back towards 7%. Work already under way is supporting lumber consumption; the projects that should replace it are becoming harder to finance.<\/p>\n

Mills and dealers are not facing the abrupt disappearance of demand seen during the sharpest housing downturns. Orders are thinning more gradually, just as buyers become reluctant to carry stock into winter. The building season is ending and expensive credit is reducing the number of households able to turn a planned purchase into a signed contract. GWMI\u2019s base case is therefore a subdued fourth quarter, followed by a possible price recovery in early 2027 as mill curtailments and lean dealer inventories begin to tighten supply.<\/p>\n

Housing is not collapsing; its replacement cycle is weakening<\/strong><\/p>\n

Single-family starts rose to an annualised 918,000 units in August, keeping lumber moving to existing sites. Detached homes consume far more lumber than apartments, and builders still have a substantial volume of work to complete. Single-family completions fell 10.4%, which may keep framing crews and material deliveries active on current projects for longer.<\/p>\n

Those starts came from decisions made earlier. Total permits fell 2.7% to 1.394 million units and single-family permits declined to 878,000, below the rate of starts. Unless permits recover, fewer detached homes will enter construction as current projects move towards completion.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
August US housing data<\/th>\nAnnualised rate<\/th>\nChange from July<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Total building permits<\/td>\n1.394m<\/td>\n\u22122.7%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Single-family permits<\/td>\n878,000<\/td>\n\u22121.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total housing starts<\/td>\n1.275m<\/td>\n\u22122.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Single-family starts<\/td>\n918,000<\/strong><\/td>\n+7.6%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Single-family completions<\/td>\n816,000<\/td>\n\u221210.4%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The financing constraint is harder to overlook. Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.95% in the week to September 17, compared with 6.76% one week earlier and 6.26% a year earlier. On a $400,000 mortgage, the move from 6.26% to 6.95% adds about $177 to the monthly principal-and-interest bill. Compared with a 5% mortgage, the difference is roughly $520 a month. Builders can buy down mortgage rates or offer upgrades, but every incentive transfers part of the affordability problem to their own margins.<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points on September 17, to 3.75\u20134.00%. Mortgage costs depend more directly on long-term Treasury yields and lending spreads, but another rate increase gives builders little reason to plan for substantially cheaper credit during the spring 2027 selling season.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Low inventories will soften the fall\u2014but not reverse it<\/strong><\/p>\n

North American lumber buyers have spent much of the post-pandemic period avoiding large speculative positions. The cost of holding inventory is higher, price swings have punished buyers who chased rallies, and the experience of 2021\u20132022 made dealers wary of treating scarcity as permanent. There is less excess stock to liquidate than in earlier downturns, but also less urgency to buy while prices are falling.<\/p>\n

Dealers operating with short coverage cannot stop purchasing entirely. Replenishment orders will appear whenever particular dimensions or species become scarce, but in small lots rather than as a broad restocking cycle. Short rallies may fade as soon as delayed railcars arrive or mills offer additional prompt volume.<\/p>\n

Producers will have to do most of the balancing. If mills maintain summer operating rates while permits fall and dealers remain defensive, finished stocks will accumulate and prices will test new lows. Early curtailments at high-cost mills could establish a floor even without stronger housing. Holiday downtime removes little effective supply; shift reductions extending through January and February would have a larger effect.<\/p>\n

Canadian producers enter this period with less room for error than their access to the US market might imply. Duties, exchange rates, rail costs and weak pricing all influence the return from shipping south. Producers in British Columbia face an additional structural problem: the available log supply no longer supports the capacity built in an earlier forest cycle. Eastern Canadian mills have a different cost structure, but they are still selling into the same cautious US market. The first response to weak prices may be selective downtime rather than a uniform national cut.<\/p>\n

US Southern mills have the advantage of a large and comparatively accessible sawlog base, but new capacity has made the region more competitive. Cheap logs do not guarantee attractive lumber margins when several efficient mills pursue the same customers. The South can continue gaining a larger share of North American production while still experiencing price pressure. Capacity growth changes where lumber is made; it does not by itself enlarge the housing market.<\/p>\n

The Canadian trade dispute is becoming a price floor, not a growth engine<\/strong><\/p>\n

US\u2013Canada trade measures remain the main source of upward price risk. Canadian lumber accounts for most US imports, and higher duties increase replacement costs. Further trade action, transport disruption or aggressive Canadian curtailments could quickly expose holes in dealer inventories, particularly in western species and items that cannot be substituted immediately.<\/p>\n

A duty can raise the price at which Canadian mills are willing to sell and improve the position of US producers, while leaving total consumption unchanged or lower. Trade tension supported the summer rally, but housing finance eventually took control. Buyers stopped paying today for a shortage that might emerge later.<\/p>\n

Trade policy should prevent prices from falling as far as the housing data alone might warrant. Canadian supply becomes more expensive, while US mills cut enough production to resist prolonged sales below cash cost. The floor will remain vulnerable whenever mills return from downtime faster than dealers rebuild stocks.<\/p>\n

What to expect through early 2027<\/strong><\/p>\n

The futures benchmark fell from $664 per 1,000 board feet on July 23 to about $537 on September 18, its lowest level in nine months. The 19% decline removed the entire 2026 advance. The contract is thin and can exaggerate daily moves, but it confirms the change already visible in purchasing: buyers see no reason to secure winter volume early. Physical prices will not follow the contract point for point, particularly where species, grade and freight restrict substitution.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

October and November should remain weak. The decline in permits has yet to pass fully into orders, winter is approaching and financing became more restrictive in September. Futures near $537 already contain part of that weakness. Prices could slip below $500 in a thin market, although they would be difficult to sustain if mills begin cutting shifts.<\/p>\n

December and January should bring a bottom rather than a clean recovery. Holiday shutdowns, permanent capacity losses in high-cost regions and cautious purchasing will bring supply closer to demand. Prices may firm before the housing data improve, driven first by lower output and depleted inventories rather than a revival in homebuilding.<\/p>\n

A stronger recovery becomes possible during the first quarter of 2027. If futures spend the winter near $500\u2013550 and mills reduce output, modest spring restocking could lift the market towards $580\u2013620. A move beyond $650 would require lower mortgage rates, several months of stronger single-family permits and fewer builder cancellations. Without them, mills will sell into the rally.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Period<\/th>\nExpected market direction<\/th>\nWhat would change it<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
October\u2013November 2026<\/td>\nWeak orders, limited restocking and further pressure around recent lows.<\/td>\nEarlier and deeper mill curtailments.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
December 2026\u2013January 2027<\/td>\nPrice floor begins to form as production and inventories decline.<\/td>\nMills restart too quickly or housing starts weaken sharply.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
February\u2013March 2027<\/td>\nSeasonal restocking supports a recovery, probably below the July 2026 peak.<\/td>\nLower mortgage rates and sustained permit growth would strengthen the rally.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The gap between single-family starts and permits will set the direction. If permits recover before starts roll over, winter will have cleared inventories ahead of another construction cycle. If permits remain below starts into early 2027, mills will compete for a shrinking replacement order book just as seasonal production returns.<\/p>\n

The market is moving towards balance through weaker prices and production cuts, not stronger consumption. That may be enough for a rebound in early 2027, but not for a return to the summer high. A sustained advance needs more building permits and, several months later, the lumber orders that follow them.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The American lumber market is heading into its quietest months with mortgage rates close to 7%, fewer homes entering the construction pipeline and mills still waiting for a convincing reason to cut output. Prices have already lost their summer gains. … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100026,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"Default","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5204],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUS lumber prices face a weak winter before a possible spring recovery - Timber Industry News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.timberindustrynews.com\/ro\/us-lumber-prices-face-a-weak-winter-before-a-possible-spring-recovery\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US lumber prices face a weak winter before a possible spring recovery - Timber Industry News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The American lumber market is heading into its quietest months with mortgage rates close to 7%, fewer homes entering the construction pipeline and mills still waiting for a convincing reason to cut output. 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